Surging Cowboys Visit Bills in Rare Spot as Underdog
Cowboys vs Bills Free Picks: Buffalo Slight 2-Point Favorite
With each passing week, the Dallas Cowboys do more to solidify themselves as a Super Bowl contender. Coming off a momentous win over the Eagles to take over a share of first place in the NFC East, the Cowboys have another statement game on tap. Next up in Week 15 is a showdown in Buffalo with the Bills.
Despite its 10-3 start, Dallas finds itself in a unique spot as an underdog. Buffalo is a slight 2-point favorite and -135 on the moneyline, with the Cowboys priced +115 to win outright. Meanwhile, the projected total is 50.5, up a tad from 49.
Can the Cowboys maintain their winning ways? Read on as we break down both NFL teams and give our Cowboys vs Bills free picks.
Cowboys vs Bills 
Day/Time:
Location: Highmark Stadium; Orchard Park, N.Y.
Streaming: Fox
Cowboys vs Bills Betting Trends
The Dallas Cowboys are 9-4 ATS, including 4-1 in their last five games. Dallas has been the NFL’s most profitable team in that regard, covering in 69.2% of their games. They’ve also gone Over the projected total in eight of their 13 games.
Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills are just 5-8 ATS, including 3-4 at home. The Bills have covered just twice in their last nine games. They’ve also gone Under the projected total in nine of their 13 games. That’s tied for the second highest rate (69.2%) in the league.
That’s important to remember when analyzing our Cowboys vs Bills free picks.
Cowboys Surge Into First
The Dallas Cowboys thumped Philadelphia 33-13 in Week 14, improving to 10-3 to pull even with the Eagles atop the NFC East.
The NFL’s hottest team outside of San Francisco, Dallas has won five straight NFL games and is averaging 40.2 points during that span. Most impressively, the Cowboys are the only team with both a top-five offense and defense.
As such, Dallas has positioned itself among the Super Bowl favorites in the NFC, with +380 odds of winning the conference. Only the 49ers (+120) and Eagles (+330) currently have better odds.
While the Cowboys are 7-0 at home, including 6-1 ATS, they’re just 3-3 on the road. They’ve been an underdog just twice this season, and lost 42-10 at San Francisco and 28-23 to Philadelphia. Be sure to keep that in mind when assessing our Cowboys vs Bills free picks.
Quarterback Dak Prescott has not disappointed, passing for 3,505 yards, an NFL-best 28 touchdowns and just six interceptions. He’s been particularly hot of late, with 11 touchdown passes and no interceptions over the last four games on the Dallas Cowboys schedule.
In doing so, Prescott has taken over as a +150 favorite for MVP according to NFL odds this week. 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is close behind at +180.
Dallas also has the favorite for Defensive Player of the Year in linebacker Micah Parsons. Parsons, who has 12.5 sacks, is priced -130.
Little Margin for Error for Bills
The Buffalo Bills edged the Chiefs 20-17 in Week 14, maintaining their chase for an AFC playoff spot. Now 7-6, Buffalo is tied with five teams for the final two wild card spots.
Despite their uncertain standing, the Bills own in the seventh best Super Bowl odds at +1800. Only three AFC teams — +550 Ravens, +700 Chiefs, +800 Dolphins — currently own better odds. That speaks to the Bills’ potential with Josh Allen, who’s continued to produce alongside the league’s best quarterbacks.
While Allen is tied for the league lead with 14 interceptions, he’s also passed for 3,447 yards and 25 touchdowns, second to only Prescott. On top of that, Allen — who’s +1600 for MVP — has rushed for 374 yards and a career-high 10 scores. Accordingly, Buffalo is averaging 378.9 yards, ranking fifth in the NFL while also scoring 26.8 points per game.
Buffalo has been a bit unpredictable for bettors despite that, going Under the projected total in nine of its 13 games. While the Bills are 5-2 OU at home, they’re just 3-4 ATS. Against Kansas City, the Bills covered as 2-point underdogs for only the second time in nine games.
The Bills are relatively healthy, but they could be without rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid. Kincaid, who’s second on the team with 61 receptions for 495 yards, is questionable with a shoulder injury. Be sure to monitor his availability when analyzing our Cowboys vs Bills free picks.
Handicapping the Game
It’s no secret the Cowboys have been a different team away from home, where they are 6-1 ATS and 7-0 SU. On the heels of a primetime win over rival Philadelphia, this could be a potential letdown game, especially with Buffalo needing every game to maintain its hopes for an AFC wild card.
The Cowboys are bound to cool off at some point, and this week in Buffalo may be a prime spot with the potential for inclement weather. That said, given how Prescott is playing, it’s hard to fade the Cowboys at the moment.
Taking that into account, we’re going to take Dallas at +2. If bettors are feeling bold, they can also grab better odds and take Dallas to win outright.
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