Steelers vs Bills Free Picks: It’s Going To Get Ugly in Buffalo
Low Totals and a Wide Spread are Key Lines For Pittsburgh-Buffalo
NFL Odds Indicate a Low-Scoring Bills Blowout
Get ready for another “Snow Bowl” as the Buffalo Bills host the Pittsburgh Steelers in snowy Orchard Park. The weather forecast has bettors running to steam to the ‘under’ on the total, which has plummeted from its opener of 43 points to 35 now. Buffalo has also been bet down from -8.5 to -10. We’re not fading the public here. But our Steelers vs Bills free picks have us maneuvering around these juiced lines.
Steelers vs Bills Game 
Day/Time:
Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Stream: CBS
Public Hammering the ‘Under’ Thanks to the Weather
That was fast. All it took was one look at the weather conditions, and folks betting online bet the total to 35 points. The reports indicate a 70% chance of snow, up to three inches, during Sunday afternoon. Wind speeds are as fast as 30 miles per hour, with temperatures dropping to 13 degrees Fahrenheit. In short, winter is coming.
Due to the windy conditions, we can expect the defensive-minded coaches to be more conservative with their play-calling. Buffalo remains a wide favorite on the NFL spreads. And the total has become too low for our taste. So let’s look at the best Steelers vs Bills free picks: the props.
Bet Against Scoring and Passing
Instead of betting on the total to go under 35 (still some value at plus odds), bet instead on prop bets to go ‘under’. The ones we’re eyeballing are the passing props from both Josh Allen and Mason Rudolph. Allen’s is set at 28.5, and Rudolph’s is at 25.5. Between the two, betting Allen down at -115 has tremendous value.
Allen has averaged just over 29 passing attempts in his last five games. He only tossed 15 against Dallas in a blowout win for Buffalo. And the weather conditions were much better here. With Buffalo favored to beat up Pittsburgh, Sean McDermott will elect to make Allen more of a “game manager.” Bet against Allen’s passing attempts.
Bet: Over/Under – Pass Attempts – Josh Allen (BUF) Under 28.5 (-115)
Thanks to the windy conditions, it’s not just passing. We’re fading. How about kicking? Given the conservative play-calling from Mike Tomlin and McDermott, it is unlikely we will see them attempt any long-field goals. They may elect to go for it on fourth and take their chances than to trust their kickers to nail a field goal when the winds are blowing at 30 mph.
Bet: Longest FG Scored in the Game – Under 45.5 Yards (-115)
As far as NFL wild card predictions, this one feels straightforward. Neither team hits the 25-point mark. The line has become juiced at -145, but this is still a solid prop to take. Teams will be running the ball frequently and milking the clock. And there is great potential for missed field goals and plenty of “3-and-outs”. It’s unlikely that either the Steelers or Bills hit the 25-point mark.
Bet: Race to 25 Points – Neither (-145)
Picking a Side: Roll With Buffalo on a Teaser
Given the low-scoring nature of this game, we’re touting Buffalo to emerge victorious. But the spread has become too wide, so we’re going with a middle-ground Steelers vs Bills free pick : a 6-point teaser with another team on Super Wild Card Weekend (any of our other three NFL teaser bets).
Now we’re probably thinking: six points? That means the Bills have to win by five or more. And usually, the math dictates this is unlikely. But this is also an unusual game. We will see missed field goals and/or extra-point attempts. Teams may elect to run the ball on a two-point conversion instead.
But we’re confident with one thing: Buffalo wins. Double-digit favorites are 7-2 against the spread (ATS) since 2005. On top of that, we’re fading Rudolph here. He’s been on fire to end the NFL season for Pittsburgh. But quarterbacks who are 28 or older in their playoff debut are 1-8 (3-6 ATS) as underdogs, with five losses being by 18+ since 2002.
The Steelers did well to clinch in the NFL wild card standings . But this is where their train stops. But thanks to the brutal weather conditions, we can’t quite lay 10 points on Buffalo. Thus, tease the Bills down. Bet: 6-Point Teaser – Buffalo Bills -10 to -4.
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