Browns vs Texans Free Picks: Can Flacco Continue Magic?
Cleveland Visits Houston to Open NFL Wild Card Weekend
The Cleveland Browns visit the Houston Texans on Saturday in the first playoff game of the season. The point spread has shown a little back-and-forth movement.
The Browns opened as 2-point favorites, but the line climbed to Cleveland -3 (Even). It’s inched its way back down to Browns -2.5 (-115). The total on the game has moved from 44 to the current number of 44.5. In Browns vs Texans free picks, we’ll look at some of the playoff trends and look for the best value bet on the game.
Browns vs Texans 
Day/Time:
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
Stream:
Flacco Gives New Life to Cleveland
After Deshaun Watson was injured, the Browns were getting pretty poor play from their quarterbacks. Neither PJ Walker or Dorian Thompson-Robinson showed much.
But Joe Flacco stepped into the starting line-up and was solid, leading the Browns to a 4-1 record in his five games. He didn’t play last week to rest up for the playoffs. But that’s where Flacco has been his best. Flacco’s teams are 10-5 in the playoffs and 11-4 against the point spread. The Browns are the first team since 1984 to make the playoffs with five different starting quarterbacks.
The Browns are 1-1 in the playoffs under coach Kevin Stefanski, although those were both as underdogs. Cleveland covered the spread both games. He’s also 10-0 against AFC South teams in his career. The Browns were 8-1 straight-up and 7-2 ATS as a favorite this season.
For Cleveland to go 11-6 in the NFL standings is pretty impressive considering they were -9 in turnovers. The Browns led the league with 2.2 giveaways per game. But the Browns were able to overcome that due to a defense that allowed the fewest yards per game in the NFL. Cleveland did allow 21.3 points per game, but you can’t entirely blame the defense for that. The offense has to shoulder some of the responsibility.
Texans Different Team With Stroud
The Browns aren’t the only team who didn’t get good quarterback play when their starter went down. Houston struggled when CJ Stroud was out. But fortunately for Houston, he just missed a couple of games or the Texans would probably be watching the playoffs.
His absence was especially evident in the 36-22 loss to Cleveland last month. The final score looks respectable, but it was 36-7 before the Texans scored a couple of garbage touchdowns in the fourth quarter.
Stroud showed a lot of poise in leading the Texans past the Colts last week to reach the playoffs. You don’t always see that out of rookies. But it doesn’t change the fact that quarterbacks making their playoff debuts are 20-43 against the spread since 2003.
With Stroud and coach DeMeco Ryans both in their first year, there isn’t any history to go on. But it is worth noting the Texans were 6-3 at home this season. But the Houston Texans was just 4-5 against the spread even though the offense scored 2.4 more points.
Wild Card Round, Home Dog Thrive
While the Browns have some trends working in their favor, Houston has a big one going for them. Since 1980, home underdogs in the wild card round are 13-4-1 against the point spread. If they’re attempting to avenge an earlier season loss to the favored team, the NFL scores show these teams are 7-1-1 against the point spread.
Browns Defense Struggles on Road
While the Browns have gone 11-6 in the NFL standings, most of those wins came at home. Cleveland is just 3-5 straight-up and against the spread on the road this NFL season. The biggest difference is the defense. The Browns allow 29.6 points per game and 331.3 total yards. The rush defense and pass defense have both performed worse. The offense didn’t show a huge difference between home and away performances.
Who to Bet On?
The Browns vs Texans free picks notes there are definitely conflicting betting trends in this game. Some trends favor Cleveland, while the Texans also have a few in their favor. This one will come down to the NFL matchups and which team should have the most success against the other one. Cleveland’s road struggles are a definite concern here. You don’t like to lay points on the road with a team that doesn’t win away from home. That’s one of the basic rules for betting on NFL games.
The Browns vs Texans free picks can see making a case for the over 44.5, especially after factoring in the number of points Cleveland allow away from home. But it’s always a bit tough to play overs in the playoffs, especially with a few rookies in prominent roles.
The best value play in this game is Houston +2.5 at -105. The Texans have a good chance to pull the minor upset in front of the home fans. Those who like teasers will especially get good value in the Texans by pushing the spread past the key numbers of 3 and 7. Take Houston and don’t be afraid to use the Texans in a teaser or two with the other playoff games.
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