Wild Card Preview: Dolphins vs Chiefs Odds Analysis
Miami has lost three of the last five games, KC is heating up
The Miami Dolphins (11-6) had the AFC East crown within their grasp but lost to the Buffalo Bills (21-14); that still secured a spot in the NFL wild-card standings, sending Miami to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs (11-6) at Arrowhead Stadium. The Dolphins finished the regular season on a 5-5 run after starting the season 6-1. Four of their last five games have cashed under tickets. KC slid past the Los Angeles Chargers (13-12) in the season finale after resting multiple starters, including Patrick Mahomes. KC has won three of their last four, with the lone blemish coming in a home loss to Vega (20-14). The Dolphins vs Chiefs odds peg the Chiefs as 4-point favorites with a total of 43.5.Â
Wild Card Round
Dolphins vs Chiefs 
Records: Miami Dolphins (11-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)
Location: Arrowhead Stadium
Day/Time: Streaming: Peacock
Dolphins Focused On Pass Rush
With the Miami Dolphins on the brink of facing Patrick Mahomes, Miami thought they should bring in some help for their injury-filled defense that needs to make Mahomes uncomfortable. In comes former Detroit Lion Bruce Irvin, who made an impact in just two games with the Detroit Lion after registering a sack and a fine against the Saints after laying our Derek Carr. It was a move that Miami had to make after losing Bradley Chubb, Jaelan Phillips, and Andrew Van Ginkel. With 56 sacks this season, the Dolphins finished third in the NFL behind Baltimore (60) and the Chiefs (57).
Miami then added Justin Houston later in the week after Houston finished the season with Carolina. The former pro bowler has not played since October 29th but will have plenty of motivation to do well against Kansas City, where he spent the first eight years of his career. Miami finished with +2.04 units of profit for bettors (9th), securing their fourth profitable season in their last five. As an underdog this season, Miami was just 1-5 ATS, which broke a four-year streak of finishing in the black as an underdog. The Dolphins were 4-3 ATS on the road but 1-3 ATS as a road dog.Â
Who are the Chiefs, exactly?
In previous seasons, we knew who the team to beat was in the AFC, but this year, it seems Kansas City is more vulnerable than ever. Perhaps that’s how Andy Reid likes it. There have been cracks showing in the KC armor starting with an opening week loss to the Detroit Lions at home (21-20) and then there was the debacle at Denver as a 7-point favorite, losing 24-9 two weeks after beating Denver at home 19-8. They washed that down with another home loss to the Las Vegas Raiders as an 11-point favorite.
They finished just 5-4 at home and have a point differential of +77, seventh best in the NFL. Despite all their success and rings, this is the first season since 2019 that KC turned a profit for bettors with 1.21 units won based on a 1-unit wager.
Coming into the season, KC was just 21-29 ATS. Based on the numbers, we think it’s difficult more than ever to know who these Chiefs are, especially when facing the league’s number one offense with a defense that gives up 4.5 yards per rush (24th) and doesn’t force turnovers.Â
Bettors Put Money Behind What They KnowÂ
When push comes to shove, the public will always put their money behind the team that is more public, and that’s the Kansas City Chiefs. 66% of the money is on KC early in the week among the Dolphins vs Chiefs odds, which has forced this number up from -3.5 to -4. We see 83% of the money wagered is in on the under, forcing this number down to 44 after opening 44.5.
The Chiefs haven’t been great ATS during the regular season, but since 2019, they’re 9-4 ATS in the postseason, including a 6-3 mark at home. They’ll bring a massive advantage in experience, with Miami playing just three playoff games since 2009 and just two in the last eight years.
Current Super Bowl odds have the Miami Dolphins at 16-1 (6th) choice and Kansas City at 10-1 (5th choice). San Francisco (+225) and the Baltimore Ravens (+325) are the favorites to meet in the Super Bowl. That does it for our initial Dolphins vs Chiefs odds preview; we’ll be back later in the week with our official AFC wild-card NFL game scores prediction.
For NFL spreads, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
