NHL Metropolitan Division Report and Forecast

A look at the NHL Standings, Metropolitan Division, saw six NHL teams go into the break with wins. From top to bottom, the division is the best in the league with a half dozen teams maintaining a positive goal differential.

As we go through the remaining NHL schedule the New Jersey Devils will have the most difficult schedule but will be favored in seven of their first eight games out of the break.

The Penguins are hanging onto a wild card spot, but with the easiest remaining schedule of the teams in the Metro, they’re still not out of the top three conversation.

Let’s start our NHL Metro Division report with a deep dive into the Carolina Hurricanes.

NHL Injuries and trade deadline moves will mean so much to every team that has playoff aspirations, but for the Carolina Hurricanes, this may mean some more. That idea came up as we saw goaltender Frederik Andersen leave the game Wednesday against the Dallas Stars, we were reminded that we must factor in backup goaltenders as the season progresses.

We already know that Andersen missed 29 games this season with a lower-body injury. His backup, Antti Raanta, has played in 245 NHL games and is 13-2-3 this season, but is that record a product of the team he plays for?

Will a .902 save percentage and 2.46 goals against be good enough in the postseason or against the better teams in the league?

Andersen will be out a week, with the timing of the injury coming at the perfect time. As the NHL season progresses it’s important to keep an eye on goaltending injuries because they can change the entire way a team plays.

We don’t feel as confident with Raanta as we do Andersen. Betting on the Panthers has been profitable, but we would caution against situations where the ‘Canes are getting more than 65% of the total bets where they are just 13-13, costing bettors 645 units. In those games when a -190 favorite or less, Carolina is just 6-7 (-309 units).

Prediction: From the unpopular opinion box, we still think the New Jersey Devils will make a run at the top spot in the division. If not, we’re betting the Devils get by Carolina in the second round of the postseason.

Judging from the Hurricanes overview, it’s obvious we’re high on the New Jersey Devils. For bettors, the Devils have been one of the most profitable teams through 49 games with 795 units won; only the Seattle Kraken (+1087) and the Boston Bruins (+1065 units) are better.

That number has been lifted up by the Devils’ 12-4 mark as an underdog that has produced 981 units.

The New Jersey Devils have been terrific to date but we project there will be plenty of chances to grab the Devils and some plus money in the second half starting with their third game back at Minnesota Wild (2/11). Except for assistant coach, Andrew Brunette, getting arrested for a DUI after getting pulled over for failing to abide by a stop/yield sign in South Florida.

As for the deadline, you can bet that the Devils are going to be buyers, but only for a player that can contribute for years to come.

We expect Tom Fitzgerald to add a top-6 difference maker that will further our thought that the Devils are only second to the Boston Bruins in the East.

Prediction: The Devils will make a splash at the deadline that will allow them to be deep enough to overcome the Hurricanes before falling to the Boston Bruins in the Eastern Conference Final. For bettors, find those plus money spots.

The problem facing Gerard Gallant’s team is that they are on a collision course to face either the Carolina Hurricanes or the New Jersey Devils in the first round of the postseason.

The New York Rangers are 14 points behind the Carolina Hurricanes, so a division win is out of the question. The best scenario for the Rangers to get out of the first round is for the Penguins or Capitals to get into the top three in the Metro.

For bettors, the trouble comes when the Rangers are getting more than 55% of the total money where they are just 15-15, losing players 611 units. To break that down some more, the Rangers are just 3-6 (-370 units) when receiving more than 55% of the money bet with the moneyline less than -150.

New York may add some pieces at the deadline, but cap space is limited. They are in need of a bottom-six scorer, but it’s not likely they are willing to use their two first-round picks to shore up their needs.

Prediction: We don’t think that the Rangers will look that much different after the deadline, and because of that a first-round exit is likely against one of the two giants in the division. Stay away from betting on the Rangers at home.

It’s difficult to imagine the Washington Capitals will be an easy out in the postseason, but we have them on a first-round collision course with the Boston Bruins to start the postseason and we’re not going with the Capitals in that match-up.

With Alex Ovechkin solidifying his spot on the NHL Mt. Rushmore, it would be nice to see the great one make another deep run, but that won’t happen unless the Caps learn to plug the holes that were created after starting 2023 6-8 (-466 units).

This is a team that needs to find their grit which will result in more chances in the high-danger areas. You can be a perimeter team and expect to go deep into the postseason or cash tickets for bettors consistently. They can start to change their projection by winning games as an underdog where they’ve lost 18 of 29 in ‘22-’23 (-541 units).

On the road, the Capitals are just 7-13 (-521 units) as a moneyline underdog. That needs to change or Ovi and the Caps will be the victim of another first-round exit.

Prediction: The Capitals will fight their way into the postseason, but will be dismissed by Boston in the first round. This a small trend for Caps bettors, who are 6-1 this season when a -125 to -160 favorite.

The Pittsburgh Penguins will not be a participant in the 2022-23 postseason, because there is simply too much mileage on the tires of the players who would normally put the team on their backs. Give GM Ron Hextall credit, they did what they had to do to keep their veteran core together but even though both Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are going to rack up almost 200 points combined, their backend which has relied on Kris Letang for all 973 games of his career, is getting a shell of what Letang used to be with 20 points in just 32 games to go with a -12 plus/minus.

Of course, it hasn’t been easy for the 35-year-old who suffered a stroke back in November. Without a 100% Letang, the Penguins are simply not good enough defensively to compete with the rest of the teams that are fighting for a wild card spot.

Only four other teams have lost more money for bettors this season (-990 units) who are 1-8 against the Islanders, Devils, Hurricanes, and Capitals (-720 units). That’s why they won’t make the NHL playoffs.

Prediction: Pittsburgh will remain competitive throughout the rest of ‘22-’23 but will miss the playoffs by a few points to the Buffalo Sabres who will catch the Penguins. Don’t get caught betting on the Penguins as a dog, the team is just 2-9 (-682 units) in that role this season.

At least the Islanders didn’t have to start the season on a ridiculous road trip, but the outcome will likely result in another missed trip to the postseason. New York is on pace to lose money for bettors for the third time in four seasons. 2021 was the only season where bettors profited but most of us throw out that season with Covid running rampant.

If you Throw out that season, the New York Islanders are just 97-104 (-2163 units), putting them in the conversation with the worst in the NHL. Lou Lamoriello did make the first major splash in the pool of player movement, bringing in Bo Horvat from the Vancouver Canucks.

It makes you wonder what Barry Trotz could have done with this team, but Lamoriello decided that Lane Lambert, a Trotz assistant, was a better option moving forward. With all the moves and coaching changes, this is a season that will put Lou on the hot seat if the Islanders’ mediocre culture doesn’t change.

Prediction: Over the last month, New York is just 5-8 (-497 units). They are a go-against team in the second half until they can put together a modest win streak to earn some of our trust back. It’s our opinion that the Islanders will still miss the playoff and stay in the 6th spot in the Metro Division.

We know Philly fans don’t want to hear this because the win/loss record isn’t what is acceptable to the Flyer faithful, but from a betting perspective, the Philadelphia Flyers have been a terrific follow. Only the Boston Bruins (+1339) and Winnipeg Jets (+1207) have been a more reliable puckline wager. Philadelphia has received +1 ½ goals 43 times in their 51 games, cashing 30 of those bets (+760 units).

That is 347 units better than the Seattle Kraken. One has to think that if John Tortorella had his choice he would like to give his team more of a solid 1-2 punch in net. Comments have been made over the first few months that would indicate that Tortorella isn’t happy with the play of Felix Sandstrom.

There may some movement at the deadline but it will be more about depth, a spot that Tortorella doesn’t seem to have consistent confidence.

Prediction: The Flyers will not make the playoffs but this is not a team that will quit playing down the stretch. If the moneyline is right, get the 1 ½ with the Flyers when it makes sense for your bankroll. Their road record is nothing to overlook, terrific plus-money team.

We finish our NHL Metropolitan Division report with the lowly Columbus Blue Jackets. We won’t spend much time on Columbus, who is only slightly better than the Anaheim Ducks. Unlike the Ducks, Columbus is in a tussle with the salary cap, using almost nine million of LTIR space on Zach Werenski who is making 9.6 million a year.

The assistant captain is scheduled to be back in time for the start of camp next year after suffering a separated shoulder and torn labrum. As an underdog, the Blue Jackets are 24-52 this season (-1569 units) ranked 31st.

Prediction: Columbus will fish with the worst record in the East, but is a prime over wager the rest of the season. That does it for our NHL Metropolitan Division report, enjoy the break and make sure to manage that bankroll properly.

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