Rafael Nadal Retirement Odds: Will a Hall of Famer Retire in 2023 or 2024?

Concerns Growing in Tennis World About When Rafael Nadal Will Return to the Court

Another Grand Slam event is right around the corner and once again, there will be a big name missing from the festivities. A hip injury will keep Rafael Nadal out of Wimbledon for the third time in the last four years. After missing the French Open as well, there has been obvious chatter about Rafael Nadal’s retirement.

There is no timetable for Nadal to return to the court and certainly moving from grass to the hardcourts after Wimbledon is not a great thing for a player with a bad hip.

Nadal will go down as one of the best competitors in tennis history. That was evident when he fought back in five-set marathon matches and could also play a role when it comes to his decision to retire. He is priced at +400 to retire from the ATP tour at some point in 2023. The number moves to -525 for Nadal to retire in 2024.

The 37-year-old native of Mallorca, Spain holds the record for most consecutive weeks ranked in the top 10 in the ATP rankings. He spent more than 200 weeks ranked first and finished at No. 1 in the year-end rankings five times. Unlike his friend and rival Roger Federer, who struggled for results late in his career, Nadal is still in the running for titles when healthy. The problem has been getting to the point where he is healthy.

When looking at the tennis schedule, there is so much uncertainty when it comes to Nadal’s return to the court.

It’s Been a While

Rafael Nadal will go down as one of the winningest players ever to step onto a tennis court. However, he has just one tour win in 2023.

He beat Great Britain’s Jack Draper 7-5, 2-6, 6-4, 6-1 in the first round at the Australian Open in January before falling 6-4, 6-4, 7-5 to Mackenzie McDonald, an American ranked 65th. He has not played since. He missed the French Open, a tournament he has won 14 times and it is looking like he will be limited to just one Grand Slam event for the first time since making his Grand Slam debut at Wimbledon in 2003.

The rumors of Rafael Nadal’s retirement won’t be subsiding any time soon.

One of the Greats

If Nadal never strikes another tennis ball, he will go down as one of the best players ever. He became the youngest player at age 24 to win all four Grand Slam singles titles and that is just one of his many accolades.

When looking at tennis player stats, Nadal is 14-0 in French Open championship matches and 22-8 in Grand Slam singles finals.

Injuries have been a part of Nadal’s career as he withdrew before the third round at the 2016 French Open and before the 2022 Wimbledon semifinals. Now about the only mention of Nadal has been speculation about Rafael Nadal’s retirement since Novak Djokovic moved ahead of the Spaniard in career Grand Slam titles by winning at Roland Garros.

With his current inactivity, it would be easy to forget that he began 2022 by winning the Australian Open and French Open titles.

His most recent Grand Slam final might be one of his most dominant as he rolled past Casper Ruud 6-3, 6-3, 6-0 to win the French Open in 2022.

Where is He Now?

Nadal is currently ranked 136th in the ATP rankings and he will fall even further when his points for reaching the Wimbledon semifinals come off the board. He only won five more matches for the rest of 2022 so his ranking won’t fall quite as rapidly after Wimbledon.

Nadal was ranked 15th as recently as May 29 and he was in the top 10 as recently as the first week of March.

There was a recent story that put his participation in the 2024 Olympics in question since he will need to play in Davis Cup in the two years leading into the Olympics and that is not likely to happen.

For a player as great as Nadal, this is a tough way for things to play out.

When Does He Call It Quits?

Looking at the odds, there is a prevailing notion that he might make the 2024 French Open his swan song. He is priced at +150 to retire after the 2024 French Open and before Wimbledon.

The number moves to +225 for Nadal to make that decision after the US Open, but before the end of 2024. It is a +350 Moneyline to make the call after Wimbledon in 2024, but before the US Open and +600 after the 2024 Australian Open and before the French Open.

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