Euro Qualifying Play-off Final: Ukraine vs Iceland Odds
Winner Advances to Euro 2024
Both Sides Pull off Comebacks in Semifinal
With just over five minutes to go last Thursday, Ukraine trailed Bosnia 1-0. At the end of stoppage time, they came away with a 2-1 victory to advance to Tuesday’s Euro Qualifying Play-off Final. Their opponents, Iceland also trailed in their Semifinal match vs. Israel but came back with a vengeance to pull off a 4-1 victory. The two resilient sides will face off in Poland with a spot in Euro 2024 on the line. In this crucial match, we’ll check out the Ukraine vs Iceland odds.
Ukraine vs Iceland
Date, time:
Location: Wroclaw Stadium, Wroclaw, Poland
Ukraine vs Iceland Head-to-Head
This is the fifth chance to bet on the Ukraine vs Iceland odds all-time. The series is tied at 1-1 with two draws and the two sides last met in a World Cup qualifier in 2017. In that match Gylfi Sigurdsson, who’s not in this month’s squad, scored both of Iceland’s goals in their 2-0 victory over Ukraine. They haven’t played any UEFA Euro qualifiers against each other since 1999 and each of the four previous meetings have finished with two goals or fewer.
Ukraine Have Talent and Depth Advantage
Ukraine fell behind in their Euro Qualifying Play-off Semifinal match at Bosnia in the second half. Mykola Matviyenko accidentally directed a Bosnia cross into his own net in the 56th minute and Ukraine were left playing catch up. The introduction of Roman Yaremchuk in the 81st minute changed the course of the match considerably. Mykhailo Mudryk played a brilliant ball for Yukhym Konoplya and Yaremchuk, the Valencia striker, finished off the cross to equalize in the 85th minute.
Just a few minutes later, Yaremchuk sent in a cross that Artem Dovbyk headed home for the winner. Ukraine then slogged through eight minutes of stoppage time to advance to the Path B Final. If Ukraine are able to defeat Iceland on Tuesday, it’ll mark their fourth straight UEFA Euro appearance. Currently, whoever the Path B winner is shows +700 UEFA Euro odds to win Group E, with Belgium, Slovakia and Romania. If Ukraine beat Iceland, expect those odds to shorten a fair bit, as they have a well-rounded team.
The fact that Ukraine have the luxury of bringing players like Yaremchuk and Ruslan Malinovskyi off the bench is a testament to that. However, Dovbyk’s club teammate at Girona, Viktor Tsygankov is out injured. Oleksandr Karavaev, Taras Stepanenko and Andriy Yarmolenko are also not on the active roster. Regardless, Ukraine’s will expect their talent to take them over the line here.
Iceland No Stranger to Upsets
A massive turning point in Iceland’s Semifinal match vs. Israel last Thursday was Albert Gudmundsson’s brilliant free kick goal. The Genoa man curled one in with his right foot in the 39th minute to equalize after Eran Zahavi gave Israel the lead on a penalty. Before halftime, Arnor Traustason gave Iceland the lead and they didn’t look back from there. Zahavi missed a penalty that would have equalized and Iceland punished the mistake.
Gudmundsson scored another impressive solo goal and completed his hat trick in the 87th minute by scoring on a rebound. Iceland came away with a 4-1 win and they’re just one win away from heading to Germany this Summer. Bettors should be aware that Iceland won just three of their 10 games on their Group Stage UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying schedule, though.
Iceland finished behind Portugal, Slovakia and Luxembourg in Group J and the last couple of years have been rather rough for them. Still, they take a three game overall winning streak into this one and they’ve certainly played spoiler before. Iceland made a run to the Euro 2016 Quarter-Final but they don’t have the same quality now as they once did.
Ukraine vs Iceland Match Analysis & Odds
While Tuesday’s other Finals are expected to be quite close, Ukraine are one goal favorites vs. Iceland. Ukraine come in at -130 odds to cover and they are -200 favorites to win this one in 90 minutes. They’re also -400 favorites to qualify altogether, which corresponds to a 73.7 percent chance of advancing to Euro 2024 without the vig.
Iceland lost at this stage in Euro 2020 qualifiers by falling 2-1 to Hungary but this is not a traditional road match for them. Ukraine haven’t played a match on home soil for quite some time and Iceland won’t find the crowd as hostile as they may have otherwise. Still, Iceland are +550 underdogs despite losing just one of their four previous matches to Ukraine.
Bettors can back Iceland +1 at even odds and a draw (+300) would send this one into two extra time periods. Ukraine have lost just three of their last 28 internationals and have the better pedigree but Iceland won’t go down without a fight. Under 2.5 goals are priced at -125 Ukraine vs Iceland odds in what could be a match with precious few opportunities. Whoever the winner here is will benefit from a favorable Group Stage draw in Germany this Summer.
