CONCACAF Nations League: USA vs Mexico Final Odds

North America's Top Teams Face Off

Mexico Out for Revenge

The last time the USA and Mexico met, the USMNT embarrassed Mexico 3-0 in the 2023 CONCACAF Nations League Semifinal. Following the match, Mexico fired coach Diego Cocca and have improved since. El Tri put in an efficient scoring performance on Thursday vs. Panama to advance to the Nations League Final for the second time. Meanwhile, the USA needed a late comeback to force extra time vs. Jamaica, where they won 3-1. Now, the USA and Mexico will renew their rivalry on Sunday in the CONCACAF Nations League Final. We’ll take a closer look at the USA vs. Mexico Final odds as El Tri look for revenge.

USA USA vs Mexico MEX

Date, time:
Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX, USA

USA vs Mexico Head-to-Head

The USA are on a six game unbeaten streak vs. Mexico, which is their longest since 2015. The last time these teams met was in the 2023 CONCACAF Nations League Semifinal. There, the USA destroyed Mexico 3-0. Christian Pulisic scored twice in that match, and the USA winger has four career goals vs. Mexico. This is the second opportunity to bet on the CONCACAF Nations League USA vs Mexico Final odds. In 2021, Pulisic scored in extra time as the USA won 3-2. Mexico do lead the series 36-17-23 all-time, though.

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USA Mount Late Comeback

It took Jamaica under a minute to get on the scoresheet vs. the USA on Thursday evening. Some poor defending allowed Bobby Decordova-Reid to send in a cross for Greg Leigh, who headed in past Matt Turner. USA right back Joe Scally was completely disoriented on the cross and lost track of Leigh. The USMNT’s performance was highly disappointing, and they looked sluggish throughout.

Christian Pulisic had some chances to equalize, but his finishing left a lot to be desired. The USA were fortunate to get an equalizer right at the end of stoppage time. Miles Robinson flicked on a corner, which Jamaica’s Cory Burke sent into his own net to force extra time. It was a pair of substitutes who ended up making the difference in the added period. Gio Reyna played Haji Wright in on two occasions as the Coventry City striker scored a brace.

Given a few of Jamaica’s best players were out for the match, the USA’s performance was unacceptable. Questions have certainly been raised about coach Gregg Berhalter heading into this Summer’s Copa America.

The USMNT will get Sergiño Dest back from a suspension to replace Scally on Sunday, but it is still highly concerning they weren’t able to get the job done in 90 minutes on Thursday. The CONCACAF standings show that the USA have won both previous Nations League Finals, though, and they’re always up for matches vs. rivals Mexico.

Mexico in Second Final Under Lozano

Julian Quiñones scored his first goal for Mexico in Thursday night’s 3-0 win over Panama. Quiñones made the most of his first start, and his 43rd goal followed an Edson Alvarez header three minutes earlier. Mexico was up 2-0 at halftime and didn’t look back. Panama did have a bunch of opportunities, but not exactly great ones, and Guillermo Ochoa was up to the task in goal. Orbelin Pineda came on as a substitute and put Mexico three goals ahead.

El Tri is now in its second straight final under Jaime Lozano, having won last Summer’s Gold Cup. Its defense has been quite effective lately, with five shutouts in its last six competitive matches. It seemed unlikely Mexico would make it to this stage of the CONCACAF Nations League bracket after a 2-0 loss to Honduras in the first leg of the Quarter-Final.

However, they bounced back in the second leg to force extra time and win in penalties. Lozano made a big call by leaving Santiago Gimenez on the bench on Thursday. Gimenez has been integral for Feyenoord but hasn’t had the same success in his El Tri career so far. It remains to be seen whether Lozano will switch things up for Sunday’s final. This is a litmus test for Mexico’s progress under their new coach, as Lozano is taking on the USA for the first time.

USA vs Mexico Match Analysis & Odds

Despite Thursday’s shaky performance, the USA are favorites for Sunday’s Nations League Final. The USA vs. Mexico Final odds list the hosts at a +105 ATS and moneyline price. Without the vig, that corresponds to a 44.6 percent chance of victory. Bettors should note that Mexico haven’t scored against the USA in any of the last four competitive meetings.

Still, Mexico will feel confident about ending their six-game winless run vs. the USMNT here. El Tri sit at +240 moneyline odds and bettors can take a draw at +220. A draw is not the worst pick in the world, as the last two meetings between these teams in finals have gone to extra time.

Mexico have also picked up the scoring pace recently, as they’ve scored at least two goals in seven of their last eight matches overall. Still, most matches between Mexico and the USA tend to be low scoring affairs. Under 2.5 goals display -155 odds for this one as Mexico try to shut down the USA’s frontline. Berhalter could decide to start Wright up top for more of a physical presence but expect Pulisic and Tim Weah to be on the wings. Punters can also back Mexico +0.5 at -135 odds in what should be another entertaining final between CONCACAF rivals.

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