UEFA Nations League Semifinals: Spain vs Italy Odds
Rematch of 2021 Nations League Semis
A Rivalry Renewed
Two of Europe’s most storied national teams face off on Thursday as Spain take on Italy in the Netherlands. This 2023 UEFA Nations League semifinal is a rematch of the 2021 Nations League semifinal, which Spain won. Both Spain and Italy narrowly won their groups this time around and have had some patchy form in the lead up to this one. Still, one of these teams will earn a place in Sunday’s final. We’ll run through the Spain vs Italy odds as these two rivals meet once again.
UEFA Nations League Semifinals
Spain vs Italy
Date, time:
Location: De Grolsch Veste, Enschede, Netherlands
Head-to-Head
The last time Spain and Italy met was in the 2021 UEFA Nations League semifinals. Despite playing in Milan at the San Siro, Italy fell 2-1 to Spain as Ferran Torres scored both of Spain’s goals. Earlier that year, Italy defeated Spain in penalties in the European Championship semifinals.
Spain are unbeaten in regulation in the last four meetings of this fixture. Italy’s last 90-minute win was a 2-0 triumph in the Euro 2016 round of 16. In fact, Italy have just one win in the last ten head-to-head matchups.
Spain’s Concerning Form
- Standings: 3-2-1, 1st Group 2
- Key Injuries: M Pedri (Out), F Nico Williams (Out), F Gerard Moreno (Out)
In the lead-up to this match, Spain have won just one of their last five games. In their most recent match, a March Euro 2024 qualifier, La Furia Roja fell to Scotland 2-0. Spain It was a highly disappointing result for Spain and new coach Luis de la Fuente. They’re now in second place in the Group A UEFA Euro qualifiers standings.
Following Spain’s 7-0 win over Costa Rica in their World Cup opener, they also failed to win another match at the tournament. They’ll look to build some momentum here with a lineup that features a mix of veterans and young players.
In defense, De La Fuente called up 37-year-old Jesus Navas, 34-year-old Jordi Alba and 33-year old Nacho. While Aymeric Laporte is expected to start in the center of defense, debutant Robin Le Normand could join him.
Barcelona star Pedri wasn’t selected for the squad due to injury. Still, De La Fuente can call on Gavi and Champions League winner Rodri in midfield. Rodri scored the winning goal in Manchester City’s triumph over Inter Milan last Saturday.
Although Spain’s form has been concerning, the UEFA Nations League semifinal odds price La Furia Roja as favorites here. Alvaro Morata is the only player on the active roster with over 10 international goals.
Ferran Torres, who scored twice the last time Spain faced Italy, is not in the squad. It should also take time for Spain’s midfield to adjust to life after Sergio Busquets. The Barcelona legend, who left the club this month, retired internationally after the 2022 World Cup.
Italy Advance From Group of Death
- Standings: 3-2-1, 1st Group 3
- Key Injuries: M Matteo Pessina (Out), F Domenico Berardi (Out)
Italy survived the group of death in the UEFA Nations League to advance to the semifinal. The Azzurri went 3-2-1 in a group with Hungary, Germany and England to finish first in Group 3. Italy have gone through a rollercoaster ride over the last couple of years.
In 2021, they won the European Championship but missed out on qualifying for Qatar 2022 just months later. Roberto Mancini is still the Azzurri’s head coach and they’ve lost two of their last three matches heading into this game.
In March’s Euro 2024 qualifiers, Italy lost 2-1 at home to England for the first time since 1961. They followed it up with a 2-0 win over Malta. A silver lining for Italy was forward Mateo Retegui who switched allegiances from Argentina to Italy.
Retegui scored on his Italy debut vs. England and also scored the Azzurri’s first goal vs. Malta. Whether Retegui or Ciro Immobile will start up top for Italy on Thursday remains to be seen. Regardless, Spain vs Italy odds price the Azzurri as underdogs for this match.
Mancini called up quite an experienced backline for this one, with the likes of Leonardo Bonucci, Francesco Acerbi, Matteo Darmian and Rafael Toloi in the side. Five Inter Milan players are in the squad and they’ll be motivated after losing the Champions League final to Manchester City.
The Inter players are Acerbi, Darmian, Federico Dimarco, Alessandro Bastoni and Nicolo Barella. Italy have a bunch of solid players in midfield with Barella, Marco Verratti, Jorginho and Lorenzo Pellegrini.
Match Analysis and Odds
Many changes are expected for Spain from their 2-0 defeat at Scotland. None of the four defenders who started that day are on the Nations League finals roster. Rodri may be the only holdover to start the game vs. Italy on Thursday.
It’s quite unclear who will start up front for Spain, as Luis de la Fuente can call on players like Alvaro Morata, Rodrigo, Marco Asensio, Yeremy Pino and Dani Olmo in forward areas. In any case, the Spain vs Italy odds price Spain as 0.5-goal favorites here.
Spain are +120 ATS and moneyline favorites as Italy come in at -150 odds to cover the spread. Roberto Mancini’s Italy are also +235 moneyline underdogs heading into Thursday’s match.
Should Italy win, it’d mark their first appearance in the UEFA Nations League final. Expect Italy to be hard to break down, with an organized and disciplined backline.
On that note, six of the last eight matches between these teams have finished with two or fewer goals. Here, over two goals display -130 odds, though. Both teams have scored in three of the last four matchups as well but a “No” bet on BTTS sits at -140 odds. A draw also is priced at +200 odds and that would mean extra time at the very least.
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