Braves vs Phillies Betting Preview: Can Phillies Earn NLDS at Home in Game 4?
Philadelphia's Game 1 Win is Proving to be The Difference Heading Into Game 4
It’s hard to win in Philadelphia during the playoffs as the opposition. The Phillies earned a massive NLDS Game 3 win over the Atlanta Braves yesterday by the score of 10-2.
They’ll have a quick turnaround with Game 4 of the NLDS scheduled for tonight at 6:07 p.m. ET.
The Phillies can earn back-to-back NLCS appearances dating back to last year with a win over the Braves tonight. However, the Braves have the pitching advantage.
One of the National League’s top pitchers, Spencer Strider, will take the hill, while the Phillies will likely trot out Ranger Suarez.
This same pitching matchup was featured in Game 1 of the series when the Phillies stole Game 1 on the road. Will we get the same result in Game 4?
Take a look at the Braves vs Phillies betting preview for Game 4 of this NL East rivalry and NLDS matchup.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves 
Date & Time:
Location: Citizens Bank Park
Bryce Harper is Him!
Bryce Harper just slugged two home runs in Game 3 against the Braves. This was his first game where he hit multiple home runs in a playoff game.
He’s now one of two players with at least 100 plate appearances in the postseason, with 14 home runs and a .640 slugging percentage. The one player was Babe Ruth.
When we talk about the best player in the MLB. We typically leave Bryce Harper out of the conversation. But he’s always clutch in the postseason, hitting monumental home runs that the Phillies faithful can cheer on.
Don’t Piss Off The Opposition!
The first rule in sports is that you can’t piss off the opposition. You don’t want to get the other side so angry that they react on the field and destroy your team.
Orlando Arcia of the Braves just did that.
After Game 2, Orlando Arcia mocked Bryce Harper for his baserunning error in the ninth inning.
Arcia was caught cackling in the locker room and kept saying, “Haha, atta-boy Harper!” as reporters were entering the room for postgame interviews.
That quickly got around to Harper. Bryce probably didn’t need any motivation. However, he didn’t say anything to the media once Harper heard that. Instead, he hit a couple of bombs and stared at Arcia while rounding the bases.
Starting pitchers hate when a position player makes the opposition angry. Arcia had no clue what he was doing, and now he’s put the Braves in a pickle, down 2-1.
You don’t mock the opposition.
With the loss, the Braves are now below the Phillies in the World Series odds.
Take a look at the Braves vs Phillies betting preview for Game 4 of the NLDS.
Early Odds: Run Line Atlanta -1.5 (+115) ML Atlanta -160, O/U 9 +100/-120
⚾ Game 4 ⚾
Thursday, 6:07 p.m. ET
Spencer Strider vs. Ranger Suarez
Will the Braves Give Strider Run Support?
The Atlanta Braves lost Game 1 of the NLDS behind Spencer Strider. The Braves lost that game 3-0 after scoring no runs for Strider in that game.
Strider took the loss but had an ERA of 1.29 after that start.
Atlanta can trust that Strider will give them good innings in this do-or-die MLB matchup. But they won’t win without any offense.
Strider has struck out 30.2% of batters in the last month. He’s also limited walks to 6.2% and has allowed an ISO of .126 with a wOBA of .279 in the previous 30 days.
However, Strider has struggled against lefties. His last 69 lefties have hit a .226 ISO and wOBA of .382. That’s something to look out for.
Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Bryson Stott, and Brandon Marsh are all lefties with legitimate potential against Strider. However, the probable will feature nine batters who have collectively struck out more than 25% of the time against righties in the last month.
Strider will earn a high rate of strikeouts against the Phillies. But a couple of blasts from lefties is still a possibility.
How Will The Braves Fare Against The Lefty Suarez?
On the other hand, the Phillies will likely send out NLDS Game 1 starter Ranger Suarez. He’s a lefty who only went 3.2 innings in his first start against the Braves.
However, in that start, Suarez struck out four and walked one while giving up only one hit and no runs. Behind Suarez, the Phillies sent out six relief pitchers to maintain the shutout against Atlanta in Game 1.
The left-hander has been sensational against righties, allowing a .076 ISO and wOBA of .272 to his last 76 righties. He’s had trouble against lefties, but the Braves will only have three lefties against Suarez.
The only lefty doing damage against other lefties is Michael Harris II, who has hit a .226 ISO and wOBA of .360 against his last 32 lefties. Still, he’s also struck out 28.1% of the time in the previous month.
Suarez isn’t a high-strikeout pitcher. He’s also limited fly balls to 22.2%. But he’s taking on a Braves lineup with five batters hitting an ISO of .111 or worse and a wOBA of .285 or worse in the last 30 days.
Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, and Austin Riley have hit lefties well, along with Harris. However, the other portion of the order hasn’t looked good against lefties. Even Matt Olson, who was one of the MLB home run leaders 2023, hasn’t looked good against lefties recently. It was apparent in Game 1 and will be evident in Game 4.
We’d like to imagine that Strider will pitch at a high level in a must-win game. With Atlanta struggling against lefties, our MLB score predictions have both teams scoring at a low rate. After reviewing our Braves vs Phillies betting preview, take the Under 9 in this matchup.
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