Braves vs Phillies Preview: Can Phillies Regain Lead in NLDS?

Get your popcorn ready for Game 3 of the NLDS.

The Phillies and Braves gave us an exciting NLDS last season. It’s been the same this year.

The Atlanta Braves just escaped Game 2 with a come-from-behind victory after Austin Riley hit a go-ahead two-run homer in the bottom of the 8th inning.

The Braves earned a 5-4 win and tied the series at one heading into Game 3 of the NLDS.

The Phillies will head home for the next two games of the series. They’ll have a chance to close the series out at home if they win both games.

Can Philadelphia win Game 3?

Take a look at the Braves vs Phillies preview for Game 3 of this NL East rivalry and NLDS matchup.

Phillies Blew a 4-Run Lead In Game 2

Everything was playing out perfectly for the Phillies through the first half of the game.

Philadelphia already earned Game 1 on the road and then led 4-0 through the first five innings in Game 2. However, Atlanta stormed back, scoring five runs in the next three innings to escape a 2-0 deficit.

Zach Wheeler gave Philadelphia 6.1 innings, allowing three runs (two earned) on three hits. He also struck out ten and walked just one, pushing his ERA to 2.08. But once he left, the bullpen couldn’t hang on.

Jeff Hoffman allowed two runs while earning just one out in the 8th inning. He allowed the Austin Riley home run with a runner on.

Hoffman was sitting on a 3-2 count with a left-hander in Matt Olson on deck. If he walked Riley as a right-handed pitcher, Hoffman would’ve had to face Olson. That wouldn’t have been good either.

Therefore, Hoffman gave Riley a hittable pitch, and Riley rocked it for the game-winning home run.

Michael Harris II Was Clutch!

The Atlanta Braves were the best team in the MLB in the regular season. But it took them about 15 innings in the postseason to finally figure it out.

Some analysts have argued that the MLB should reseed each round of the playoffs to make it easier for the best teams in the MLB’s regular season to get to the World Series. In the Atlanta Braves standings, the Braves would’ve benefited.

But those analysts will likely be quiet now that Atlanta just earned a win in Game 2.

In the top of the 9th, with Bryce Harper on first and just one out, Nick Castellanos hit a rocket to right-center field. A home run would’ve given the Phillies the lead. One run would’ve at least tied it.

Harper was going on contact, thinking the ball was in the gap. He went around second base as Michael Harris made the leaping grab while sprinting into the wall from center field. Harris threw the ball into second base, and third baseman Austin Riley, who was backing up the play, fielded the ball and got Harper out at first for the game-ending double play.

Michael Harris’ defense has shined throughout his short career. He hasn’t made any bigger catches than that one in his career.

Below, we’ll break down the Braves vs Phillies preview for Game 3 of the NLDS.

Early Odds: Run Line Philadelphia -1.5 (+161) ML Philadelphia -122, O/U 9 -115/-115

The Braves Are In Trouble

Atlanta’s starting rotation has been thin all season long. It’s about to show in Game 3 in our Braves vs Phillies preview.

The Braves started Spencer Strider in Game 1 and went with Max Fried in Game 2.

Now they’ll have to settle with Bryce Elder and AJ Smith-Shawver in Game 3. That’s because Charlie Morton is injured and was left off the NLDS roster. Meanwhile, Kyle Wright has a shoulder injury that requires surgery.

In the last 30 days, Elder has allowed a .278 ISO and wOBA of .460 against his previous 64 batters. He had a tremendous first half of the season but started to fatigue late in the year. He’s struck out only 12.5% of batters in the last 30 days while walking 14.1%.

Behind him will likely be AJ Smith-Sawver, who has only struck out 19% of batters this season. He’s faced 105 batters throughout the year and has allowed a .237 ISO to those batters.

Both of those pitchers are right-handed.

Therefore, Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, and Bryson Stott all have an advantage heading into this game for the Phillies.

Aaron Nola’s Second Start Incoming

Aaron Nola was brilliant in the NL Wild Card Series against the Marlins, where he threw a quality start and helped the Phillies earn a win against the Marlins in Game 2 of the series.

Nola struggled against lefties over the last 30 days. However, he’s been much better over the previous 30 days.

The right-handed ace has held teams to a .110 ISO and wOBA of .273 over the last month. He’s also earned over 5% of ground balls while keeping fly balls below 18%.

Nola hasn’t earned a high strikeout rate against lefties in the last 30 days. But he’s kept walks down to 1.8% in his previous 113 batters. He’s rarely in trouble lately.

He’ll have a challenging task against the Braves. Atlanta has hit a .214 ISO and a wOBA of .368 against righties in the last month. The top of the order, from the first batter to the fifth batter, has succeeded against righties.

Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Matt Olson, and Marcell Ozuna have all put up outstanding numbers. But Travis d’Arnaud, Eddie Rosario, and Orlando Arcia haven’t.

d’Arnaud hit a home run in Game 2 but hasn’t been consistently good. Those three batters have ultimately been rally killers throughout the last month.

Nola has allowed a .333 wOBA to his last 54 righties. He also allowed a .182 ISO to 815 batters this season. He’ll typically give up the long ball and other extra-base hits at a high rate. He just hasn’t over the last 30 days.

The Phillies are in a much better position than the Braves in Game 3, especially in their home stadium. Our MLB score predictions have the Phillies earning the win. Looking at the MLB betting lines, we’ll grab the Phillies at -120.

For baseball betting news, MLB standings, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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