NLDS: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Can Snakes Hang With Dodgers?

October 6, 2023 109 3 minutes readMLB Picks & Parlays

D'Backs vs Dodgers Preview: NL Division Series Game 1 Insights — Christian Petersen / Getty Images via AFP

History
Game One
Don’t Overthink

Game one of the National League Divisional Series between the Arizona Diamondbacks (86-78) and the Los Angeles Dodgers (99-62) starts Saturday at Chavez Ravine. The first pitch is scheduled for 9:20 pm ET / 6:20 pm PT and can be seen on TBS.

Arizona will send Merrill Kelly (12-8, 3.29) to the hill to face Clayton Kershaw (13-5, 2.46) for LA. The Boys In Blue is a big -195 favorite with a total of 8 (-110). Let’s get into our D’Backs vs Dodgers preview with a deeper dive into Arizona from a betting perspective.

History Not On Arizona’s Side

Besides knowing that the Los Angeles Dodgers have been the king of the National League West for some time (10 of the last 11 years), Arizona knows they’ve contributed many wins to the Dodgers’ dominant run. In their last 80 meetings, the Snakes have managed to win just 23 times (.288) including a 5-8 mark in 2023.

Bettors trying to grab some plus money with Arizona through the years have lost 18.28 units since 2019. Just one time since 2013 (2018) have the Diamondbacks been able to produce a profit in a season-long series against LA.

In 16 career games against the Dodgers, Arizona is just 2-14 when Kelly starts (1-3 in 2023). The Houston native has lost all four decisions when facing Clayton Kershaw. We move our D’Backs vs Dodgers preview over to the reigning NL West champions.

Game One Important To The Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers have had plenty of time off to get their pitching rotation in order but despite the historical dominance, LA needs to win behind Kershaw in game one because the Diamondbacks may have a pitching advantage from now until their future hall of famer can throw again.

The same problem that has laid out a red carpet for their postseason exits the last couple of years. The MLB schedule may give them some relief with a possible scenario of needing just three starters to win four games. Even when it comes to Kershaw there is some uncertainty due to his left shoulder inflammation that turned out to be a major injury.

If Los Angeles is able to take game one, this will allow them to be more creative with their pitching depth. A loss will give the Snakes an advantage with Zac Gallen going against rookie Bobby Miller, followed by a likely combined effort from Lance Lynn and Ryan Pepiot against Brandon Pfaadt.

From that point on each manager will have to make some difficult strategic choices. We conclude our D’Backs vs Dodgers preview with our official game one selection.

Don’t Overthink Your Wager

Sometimes it’s better to deal with the facts you know rather than anticipating something happening that hasn’t happened in five seasons, which was the last time Arizona had the upper hand against Los Angeles. Kershaw dealt with injuries this year which means he’s fresh for the postseason, a term that’s different than being 100%.

At home in 2023, the lefty was 7-1 with an ERA of 1.58 in 57 innings to go with 64 strikeouts. We would be careless if we didn’t mention Kershshaw’s postseason history. In his last 12 starts in the playoffs, the Dodgers are just 6-6 (-2.88 units). In his career, the 10-time all-star is 13-12 with a 4.22era overall, 6-4 with a 4.10 era in the division series.

Kershaw has thrown just five postseason innings since 2020 (2022 vs San Diego). Those numbers are a slight reason for concern but even though we have to lay -195 with LA according to MLB betting lines, that’s the correct side in game one. According to most bettors’ MLB score predictions, game one should produce a low-scoring affair. Take from that what you will.

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