Twins vs Astros Betting Odds: Houston Good-Sized Favorites in Series

The Minnesota Twins and Houston Astros will meet in the American League Divisional Series, which begins Saturday in Houston. The Astros have had a few extra days off thanks to Texas wilting down the stretch, allowing Houston to win the division. While the Twins had the fewest number of wins of any division winner, Houston had the second lowest total. The perception that Houston is much better than Minnesota is just that – a perception. The Astros finished three games in front of the Twins in the MLB standings. The Twins vs Astros betting odds have Houston -160 to win the series. The price on the Minnesota Twins is +160.

The MLB schedule has the first two games in the best-of-five series taking place Saturday and Sunday. Games 3 and 4 will take place in Minnesota on Tuesday and Wednesday. If a Game 5 is needed, it will take place in Houston on Friday, Oct. 13.

Whether it’s a bit of gamesmanship or they simply don’t know, the Minnesota Twins haven’t announced their starting pitcher for Saturday. Joe Ryan was scheduled to start a Game 3 against Toronto if needed. But the Twins could also go with Bailey Ober or Kenta Maeda. Don’t be surprised if the Twins go with Pablo Lopez in Game 2 on Sunday. He would be pitching on four days’ rest.

It’s a little bit more settled for Houston. At least for the first two games. Justin Verlander will start Saturday and Framber Valdez will take the mound on Sunday. That’s as much as the Astros have announced.

Minnesota Twins

The Twins finished the season with an 87-75 record. But with a run differential of +119, Minnesota had a x-win/loss record of 93-69. Minnesota was a much better home team than it was on the road, going 47-34 at home and 40-41 on the road. Against teams .500 or better, the Twins were 37-36.

Minnesota was 68-45 on the season as a favorite against the MLB betting lines and 18-26 as an underdog. So the Twins were favored much more often than not. The Twins were 82-74-6 in totals. Minnesota is 39-40-1 when the total was 8.5 or higher and 43-34-5 when the over/under is 8 or lower.

The Twins are 68-58 against right-handed starters, scoring 5.02 runs per game, and 64-57-5 in totals when facing a right-handed pitcher. Against left-handed starters, the Twins are 21-17 but averaged just 3.95 runs per game. Minnesota is 18-19-1 in totals against left-handers.

The Twins finished No. 21 in team batting average, hitting .243. But Minnesota was No. 10 in scoring, thanks to hitting 233 home runs, which tied Texas for No. 3 in MLB. You don’t need to hit for average when you’re capable of scoring with one swing of the bat.

On the mound, the Twins were No. 6 in team ERA with a 3.87 mark. The closers blew a few too many wins, with Minnesota pitchers 38 for 66 in save opportunities.

Houston Astros

The Astros finished 90-72 and had a run differential of +129, which should have also yielded a win/loss record of 93-69. But Houston was actually a much better team on the road during the season. At home, the Astros are just 39-42, compared to 51-30 on the road. So while Houston has home-field advantage, it’s not much of one. Against teams .500 or better, the Astros are 42-43.

Houston was 62-56 as a favorite during the year. With an average lay price of -173, those who backed the Astros consistently didn’t fare too well. The Astros were at their best as underdogs, going 25-15 on the season. Houston wasn’t a dog often on the MLB scores odds, but it was a solid wager when the situation arose. The Astros are 84-75-3 in totals, going 31-25 when the total is 8 or lower and 53-50-3 when the over/under is 8.5 or higher.

Houston posted a 62-51 record against right-handed starters during the season, going 56-55-2 in totals. The Astros feasted on left-handed starters during the season. Houston was 28-21, scoring 6.08 runs per game. In total, the Astros were 28-20-1 against southpaws.

The Astros hit .259 as a team this season, which was No. 5 in MLB. Houston was No. 5 in runs scored and No. 7 in home runs. The offense was well-balanced, hitting for average and power. The Astros put the ball in play, finishing with the third-fewest strikeouts.

On the mound, the Astros were solid, as usual. Houston had a team ERA of 3.94, which was No. 8 in the Majors. The Astros converted 42 of 61 save opportunities.

Betting Game 1

The Twins vs Astros betting odds have Houston -145 in the opening game despite Minnesota not finalizing it’s starting pitcher. Bailey Ober had the best stats of the three MLB pitchers Minnesota has mentioned as possible starters. There’s a bit of a drop-off to Maeda and Ryan, who are pretty interchangeable. But the primary reason the Astros are going to be decent favorites is Verlander. He may not have had his best season, but it was still solid and he remains one of the best starters in baseball.

Carlos Correa is no stranger to playing in the postseason in Houston. But this time he comes in as a member of the Twins. He had a disappointing regular season but came to life against the Blue Jays with several key plays. October is when he shines the most.

The Twins vs Astros betting odds rightly have the Astros favored, but the line is a bit on the high side. Houston wasn’t a great favorite and is a better team on the road. The Astros should be closer to -125 based on the stats, so there is the slightest value on the Twins in Game 1.

Betting Game 2

The Twins vs Astros betting odds won’t be released for Game 2 until Saturday’s game is in the books. But there’s a possible value play waiting on the under. The Twins don’t score nearly the same number of runs against left-handed pitchers and Valdez. If Minnesota elects to start Lopez in Game 2, the under is worth a good look.

For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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