Phillies vs Braves NLDS Series Preview: Can The Phllies Earn Another NLDS Over The Braves?

The Philadelphia Phillies made light work of the Miami Marlins in the NL Wild Card Series and will now take on the Atlanta Braves in the NLDS.

The Atlanta Braves won the NL East, but there’s probably no team hotter than the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies have a ton of momentum, back with some of the best fans in the world.

Last season, the Phillies were in the same spot. They won an NL Wild Card Series and defeated the Braves in the NLDS, 3-1.

The Phillies eventually lost to the Astros in the World Series. Is this the year when the Phillies finally earn a World Series?

Check out the Phillies vs Braves NLDS series preview for this crucial NL series for the Chicago faithful.

Bryson Stott Blacked Out After Key Grand Slam

The Philadelphia Phillies earned a 7-1 win against the Miami Marlins in Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series.

The Phillies only needed two games in the best-of-three series. They also didn’t even need much insurance.

But Bryson Stott delivered the biggest insurance hit that Philadelphia has had this season.

In the bottom of the 6th inning, the Phillies were only up 3-0. They got some runners on base and gave Stott a chance to deliver some critical insurance runs heading into the game’s final three innings.

Stott came through. He blasted an absolute bomb to right-center field and hit the Phillies’ second career grand slam in the playoffs.

Stott told NBC Sports Philly that he couldn’t hear anything. He was yelling at the dugout and forgot what he even said. While running around the bases, the left-handed blocked out.

After the game, he was asked about spiking his bat after the slam. Already drunk, he couldn’t remember what happened.

Luckily for him, all of it was captured on television. When he’s bored in the offseason, he can relive the whole night and hopefully start remembering what he just did.

The Phillies eventually went up 7-0 and won 7-1 to move on to the NLDS for a second straight season.

Watch Out For The Braves In The First Inning!

The 2023 Braves scored 146 runs in the first inning this season. That was the second-most in MLB history since 1961.

Only the 2000 Cardinals had more runs scored in the first inning, with 147 runs.

Atlanta scored a first-inning run 65 times this season. That’s about 40% of their games. But as you can see, the Braves didn’t settle for one run in most of those games. The Braves scored at least four runs in the first inning 14 times this season. That’s also second, trailing the 1950 Red Sox, who did it 16 times.

Atlanta finished the season with the highest slugging percentage in MLB history. They’ve had 75 first-inning barrels, which was the most since 2015. The Braves also had 47 first-inning home runs this season, which beat the 2019 Reds, who had 46.

The Braves also hit 92 first-inning extra-base hits and had a slugging percentage of .600. Their slugging rate was .982 in the first inning.

Typically, at the top of the order, Ronald Acuna Jr. would lead off. He would then be followed by Ozzie Albies, who had Matt Olson and Austin Riley behind him.

All of those guys were heavy RBI hitters. When Acuna got on, they brought him in. Acuna added 41 first-inning runs. That was the most since 2008 when Jose Reyes of the Mets scored 42.

For context, the Mets only scored 58 first-inning runs throughout the season. Acuna had 41 on his own.

Acuna and Olson will be the top two candidates for the NL MVP. It’ll be Acuna that wins, but Olson’s season was undeniably unique, too.

Let’s look at the Phillies vs Braves NLDS series preview and MLB lines below.

Early Odds: RL Atlanta -1.5 (-205), ML Atlanta -205, O/U 8.5 -115/-105

The Phillies will begin the NLDS with Ranger Suarez on the mound. Suarez didn’t pitch in either of the first two games in the NL Wild Card.

Therefore, he’ll be in line to start Game 1.

The left-hander has struck out 24.3% of batters in the last month. He’s also held teams to a .133 ISO and wOBA of .298 in the previous 30 days. He’s not getting many grounders against righties and has allowed 34.8% of line drives in the last 30 days. Suarez has also allowed 42.4% of hard contact in the previous month.

Although Suarez has held righties to a .092 ISO and wOBA of .279, lefties have smacked a .357 ISO and wOBA of .406 in their last 15 at-bats. He’s getting more grounders and limiting fly balls against lefties but still has been unlucky against lefties. On the other hand, righties have hit few ground balls and lots of fly balls and line drives. But he’s kept power down.

Look for that to switch, where righties succeed more in this game.

On the other hand, Spencer Strider will pitch Game 1 for the Braves. The right-hander struck out 36.8% of batters this season. He also held teams to a .145 ISO and wOBA of .283. Strider struggled against lefties to finish the season, allowing a .193 ISO and wOBA of .357, but he’ll be excited for this game.

Still, lefties like Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Brandon Marsh have been red-hot against other righties. Schwarber has hit a .297 ISO and wOBA of .368. Harper has been almost as good, along with Marsh. Even Bryson Stott has hit consistently, along with righties like Nick Castellanos and Alec Bohm.

Meanwhile, the Braves top of the order has slugged against lefties over the last 30 days. Acuna, Albies, and Riley have hit lefties hard in the previous 30 days. Michael Harris, who is a lefty, has also done well recently.

The Phillies have a much better lineup, but Spencer Strider is the better pitcher. Atlanta should be able to get to Suarez with lefties like Matt Olson and Michael Harris.

To begin the Phillies vs. Braves NLDS series preview for Game 1, the Braves are -205, totaling 8.5. The Over is boosted to -115. We’d grab the Over 8.5 in this game.

Because the Phillies only had to play two games in the NL Wild Card Series, the starting rotation will catch a break for the NLDS.

Wheeler pitched in Game 1 against the Marlins in the NL Wild Card Series and was electric. He went 6.2 innings while allowing five hits and one run. He struck out eight and induced 11 ground balls while giving up just five fly balls.

The right-hander finished the game with a 1.35 ERA and threw 100 pitches while facing 24 batters.

In the regular season, Wheeler struck out 27% of batters and limited walks to 4.8%. He also kept teams to a .132 ISO and wOBA of .279 this year.

Wheeler will face left-hander Max Fried, who hasn’t been on the MLB schedule lately due to a finger issue. But the lefty pitched in a Tuesday workout and should be good for Game 2. He’s struck out nearly 26% of batters this season while holding teams to a .100 ISO and wOBA of .282. Fried is a heavy ground ball pitcher and one of the most consistent pitchers in the MLB.

On the other hand, the Phillies are dominant against lefties. Philadelphia faced two lefties against the Marlins and earned back-to-back wins to begin the playoffs. Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm, and Bryce Harper are all bats hitting an above-average ISO and wOBA against lefties in the last 30 days.

They’ve looked amazing against lefties.

But the Braves have also dominated right-handed pitching, hitting close to a .250 ISO and wOBA of over .400 against righties in the last 30 days.

We’re concerned with how well Fried will pitch with his finger issue. The Phillies could escape in Game 2 to tie the series at one.

Behind Wheeler will be Aaron Nola getting the ball for Game 3 of the NLDS. Nola pitched in Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series and earned a win after allowing three hits in seven innings. The right-hander only struck out three, but he walked one and earned more ground balls than fly balls allowed in that game. His ERA is now sitting at 0.00 in the playoffs.

Nola struck out over 25% of batters this year. He also kept walks down to 5.7% this season. His ISO was a bit high at .186, but his wOBA of .309 was above average. He’ll occasionally allow a high rate of fly balls and line drives, but Nola has been pitching much better since the middle of September.

Nola will face Bryce Elder, who hasn’t looked the same from his first to the second half. Over the last 30 days, Elder has allowed a .253 ISO and wOBA of .395. He’ll also have to pitch against the loud Phillies faithful on the road.

Therefore, we’ve got the Phillies in Game 3. The MLB scores for this series are going to be impressive. The Phillies would be 2-1 in the series through three games.

This would be a rematch of Game 1.

This game wouldn’t be played in a best-of-five series if one team wins the first three games.

This would be a rematch of Game 2.

If this game is played, it would be a do-or-die game for both teams. The winner would move on to the NLCS.

For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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