Can The Padres Rebound From Embarrassing Loss on Thursday?
The Phillies vs Padres Betting Trends Suggest Philadelphia Will Win The Series
The San Diego Padres are back to .500 after falling to the Colorado Rockies 10-9 yesterday. Not only did the Padres lose the game on the road, but they lost a 9-4 lead heading into the bottom of the 8th inning.
The Padres gave up six runs in the inning and lost. That was ultimately San Diego’s worst loss of the season. Now they’re headed home to face a much better Philadelphia Phillies team with their faces down.
The expected pitching matchups in this Phillies-Padres series are incredible. In the series’ first game, veteran aces Aaron Nola and Joe Musgrove will face off. The Phillies are slight favorites, sitting at -109. Meanwhile, the total is currently at 7.5, with the over juiced to -115.
We’ll take a deep dive into Phillies vs Padres betting trends and look at which team has the advantage in this three-game series.
Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres 
Date, time:
Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
What Happened To Seranthony Dominguez?
Seranthony Dominguez was a reliable reliever for the Phillies over the years. However, he’s struggled to begin the season.
In Wednesday’s game against the Reds, Dominguez blew the lead and ultimately saw his ERA rise to 9.72. He was a significant reason why the Phillies allowed three runs on seven hits and four walks in three innings in Wednesday’s loss.
If Dominguez continues to struggle, he won’t be relied on to get MLBÂ results in big spots moving forward.
Manny Machado is Expected Back Tomorrow
Manny Machado has already missed the last four games due to being on paternity leave. However, he’ll likely be back in the lineup for the Padres to begin this new series against the Phillies.
Ironically, Bryce Harper returned to the Phillies’ lineup yesterday after he was also on paternity leave.
Phillies vs. Padres Preview of Odds For Game 1:
RL: Phillies -1.5 (+155) ML: Phillies -109, O/U 7.5 -115/-105.
Game 1
Friday, 9:40 pm ET
Aaron Nola vs Joe Musgrove
Aaron Nola will get the start for the Phillies in this series opener. He’s a right-handed pitcher holding a 3.16 ERA on the season. However, he’s allowed lefties to hit a .250 ISO and wOBA of .356 and has only added 12.1% of strikeouts against righties. The Phillies vs Padres betting trends have favored Nola on the moneyline, but the analytics speak differently.
On the other hand, the Padres are hopeful Manny Machado will be back in the lineup for Game 1. While the Padres had success offensively in Colorado, they won’t be there anymore. The projected lineup hasn’t hit for much power against righties since last season. Only Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth, and Jose Azocar have done above average.
San Diego will pitch Joe Musgrove. He’s a righty with a 5.74 ERA on the season. Musgrove’s strikeouts have dropped drastically compared to last season, and he’s allowed a much higher ISO and wOBA than the the previous year. Even his walks have increased a couple of percentage points.
First, the Phillies will only face righties in this three-game series. Against righties, Philadelphia’s usual lineup has hit a .180 ISO and wOBA of .338 with 22.8% of strikeouts since last season. Only Kyle Schwarber has really hit for major power against righties since the previous year. But the Phillies still match up way better against Musgrove, even on the road.
Consider the Phillies at -109 in Game 1, despite the game being one of the lower MLB scores today.
Game 2
Saturday, 8:40 pm ET
Ranger Suarez vs Dylan Cease
In the second game of the series, the Phillies will throw lefty Ranger Suarez. Suarez is 4-0 with a 1.36 ERA. He’s also held batters to a .062 ISO and wOBA of .195 with more than 61% of strikeouts to begin the season.
Suarez has also struck out 27.1% of batters and has walked only 4.2% while limiting opponents to 13.8% of fly balls and 17.5% of fly balls.
Ultimately, the Padres have done better against lefties since last season. The power from the bottom portion of the lineup is still not there. However, the projected lineup has struck out under 17% of the time against lefties. If they put the ball in play against Suarez, anything is possible. While Suarez has added a lot of strikeouts this season, he was never known for his high strikeouts in previous seasons.
Meanwhile, Dylan Cease will get the call for the Padres. He’s got a 1.82 ERA, making Saturday’s showdown a must-watch. Cease has struck out 31.2% of batters this year. However, his walks are still high for lefties.
Still, he’s held teams to a .103 ISO and wOBA of .190. Lefties have still managed a .200 ISO and wOBA of .312. He’s faced more righties than lefties this season, but that likely won’t be the case against the Phillies.
If anything, this game could be sneaky over despite having two of the highest-performing pitchers on the mound.
Game 3
Sunday, 4:10 pm ET
Taijuan Walker vs Michael King
Finally, Taijuan Walker will make his season debut on Sunday. Walker wasn’t the most efficient starter last season and likely won’t be able to push it too hard in his first game back since last season.
Walker watched 375 lefties hit a .180 ISO and wOBA of .320, adding only 20% of strikeouts. Still, he was good at keeping walks down and added more than 45% of ground balls last year.
He’ll face a young righty in Michael King. King’s ERA increased to 4.11 after his last start. He’s ultimately allowed a .200 ISO and wOBA of .316 to his first 119 batters and has struggled to get a high rate of grounders.
King has also earned 17.9% of strikeouts against lefties while walking 17.9% of left-handed batters. That’s not a rate to rave about.
It’s unclear what we’ll get out of Walker. However, King has struggled against lefties pretty regularly to start the season. The picks and parlays.
Phillies vs Padres Betting Trends
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