Cardinals vs Reds Series Preview: Can The Reds Make History?
Reds Have Six Rookies With an fWAR of At Least 1
In April, if you looked ahead at the schedule, you would’ve figured that the Cardinals would be playing for the playoffs now while the Reds would be counting the days until they could head home.
But that’s why we play the games.
The Cincinnati Reds are one of six teams fighting for three NL Wild Card spots. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are the second-worst team in the National League.
Can the Reds take advantage of the helpless Cardinals and raise their probability of earning a playoff spot this season?
Here’s our Cardinals vs Reds series preview for the three-game weekend series.
St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds 
Day/Time:
Location: Great American Ball Park
Reds Rookies Making History!
The Cincinnati Reds were supposed to be in a rebuild. The Great American Ball Park was nearly empty during Opening Day.
But the Reds became red-hot once Elly De La Cruz debuted. De La Cruz made his debut on June 6. In the month, he finished with a .307 average and an OPS of .881, with three home runs and nine steals. He showed off his speed and power and got fans excited.
De La Cruz has hit .244 this season but still has 11 home runs and 36 RBIs, to go with 26 steals.
He hasn’t been the only rookie to spark this team.
Spencer Steer began the season on the roster. He’s hit 20 home runs and 77 RBIs with a .267 average and an OPS of .807.
Meanwhile, Matt McLain injured his oblique in late August. He’s been out ever since. But before that, he’s been the most incredible rookie on the squad. He’s hit a .290 average, with 16 home runs and 50 RBIs. His OPS is at .864 this season. He likely won’t be back until late September at the earliest. But he’s been a dangerous hitter and could be significant for the season’s final week in a playoff push.
De La Cruz, Steer, McLain, rookie pitchers Andrew Abbott, Brandon Williamson, and Fernando Cruz have all earned at least a 1 fWAR this season. Only one team has ever made the postseason while having at least six rookies with a 1 fWAR.
The rookie batters are near the top in almost every MLB offense rankings category for rookies. That’s why they’re in contention for a playoff spot this year.
Every game is vital for the Reds, but it’s unlikely that the Reds will earn first place in the MLB Divisional standings in the NL Central.
Can Lars Nootbaar Become A Star?
The Cardinals have nothing to play for in September. They’re way out of contention in the playoffs at this point.
But the Cardinals will do some evaluating throughout the rest of the season. St. Louis has enjoyed what Lars Nootbaar has brought to the table.
Nootbar has hit a .274 average, with 12 home runs and 40 RBIs. He also has an OPS of .819. If he wasn’t injured in early April, early June, and middle August, the Cardinals could’ve been a little more competitive. But that’s the thing. Nootbar was injured three different times this season.
He needs to stay on the field.
Before the 2023 MLB season, Nootbar played in the World Baseball Classic with Shohei Ohtani and Team Japan. He was a clear leader and significant contributor to Japan, the tournament’s eventual champions.
Nootbar returned to the diamond on September 1 after missing two weeks with an injury in August. He hit .333 with an OBP of .410 with 54 at-bats in August. His OPS was nearly 1.000 in those 54 at-bats.
The left-handed batter has all of the potential to be one of the best hitters in the game. But he needs to be more consistent. He’s only 25 years old and is likely in St. Louis’ plans in the future. If he can become a more consistent bat, the Cardinals will have a lethal lineup with Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado returning next season.
Let’s break down the Cardinals vs Reds series preview and discuss matchups with probable pitchers.
Early Odds: RL Cincinnati +1.5 (-180), ML Cincinnati -120, O/U -115/-105
âš¾ Game 1 âš¾
Drew Rom vs Andrew Abbott
Drew Rom will get the start for the Cardinals in the first game of the series. Rom is a left-handed pitcher who has allowed a .207 ISO and wOBA of .387 to his first 66 major league batters this season. Rom has kept righties to a wOBA of .133, but lefties have hit a .462 ISO and wOBA of .431 against him this season.
However, he’s only struck out 9.8% of righties this season. So there’s a good chance that righties will earn more base hits and get on base more frequently in his next couple of starts.
On the other hand, it’ll be Andrew Abbott on the mound for the Reds. The left-hander has allowed a .181 ISO and wOBA of .330 over the last month. Like Rom, Abbott has been worse against lefties despite being a left-handed pitcher.
St. Louis will face one lefty in this series. Willson Contreras, Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker, and Tommy Edman have hit a high ISO and wOBA against lefties. Still, the Cardinals have performed better against righties than lefties. Only Gorman is a left-handed batter that can do real damage against the lefty in Abbott.
Meanwhile, other than Spencer Steer, it’s been a struggle for the Reds against lefties. They’ve worked out walks and have limited strikeouts to 22.6%. However, most everyday starters are hitting an ISO below .128 against lefties in the last month.
St. Louis has the edge in Game 1 in our Cardinals vs Reds series preview. They’ll be +110 underdogs against the Reds, who are -120 favorites. The total is at 10.5, with the Over juiced to -115. Take the Cardinals in an upset.
âš¾ Game 2 âš¾
Zach Thompson vs Carson Spiers
St. Louis will send out another left-handed starter for Game 2. This time, it’ll be Zach Thompson, who has watched righties hit a .197 ISO and wOBA of .368 over the last month. Thompson has still struck out over 24% of righties over the last month and has earned over 49% of grounders. Thompson has been consistent with low walks and continues to limit fly balls and line drives at a solid rate.
Meanwhile, Thompson will face Carson Spiers of the Reds. Spiers made his debut against the Cubs on September 3. He allowed three runs on five hits in that game but still struck out seven. So there was some good and bad out of Spiers. He still held 18 batters to a wOBA of .067 in that start.
However, the Cardinals have seven batters in the projected lineup that have hit an above-average ISO and wOBA over the last month. Only Tommy Edman and Masyn Winn have hit low numbers. However, both hitters have struck out below 17% of the time. The Cardinals should have success against Spiers despite higher strikeouts.
With the Reds struggling against lefties, the Cardinals would be the selection for the second straight game.
âš¾ Game 3 âš¾
Miles Mikolas vs Hunter Greene
It’ll likely be Miles Mikolas on the mound for Sunday’s series finale.
Mikolas has struck out just 12.7% of batters in the last month. He’s also allowed a .241 ISO and a wOBA of .376. This would be the game where the Reds can explode offensively.
The Reds can put up one of those lopsided baseball scores against Mikolas in this one.
Cincinnati will finally get the chase to hit against a right-handed pitcher in Game 3. The projected lineup has hit a .209 ISO and wOBA of .361 against righties.
Conversely, Hunter Greene will pitch for the Reds. He’s a young pitcher with a lot of potential. But he’s also allowed a .455 ISO and wOBA of .504 against his last 65 batters. I like the Reds to score many runs and win this game. But don’t be surprised if the Cardinals also tack on multiple runs. The Over would be more appealing than picking a side in this one.
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