D’Backs vs Cubs Preview: Can Arizona Avoid Collapse?

The NL Wild Card baseball standings are wide open in early September.

The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Chicago Cubs are two of the six teams fighting for just three NL Wild playoff spots.

No game or series is a “must-win” just yet. But a series win for the Cubs or Diamondbacks would be critical in their quests at making the MLB postseason.

Most recently, the Cubs have been the hotter team, while the Diamondbacks have drowned in the standings. But a quick turnaround could save Arizona from an epic collapse.

Don’t forget that the Diamondbacks led the NL West throughout the entire first half of the MLB season. If the playoffs ended today, the Diamondbacks wouldn’t even be in the playoffs.

But all that could be forgotten with a series win over the Cubs.

Here’s our D’Backs vs Cubs preview for the four-game series between two potential playoff MLB teams in the National League.

Where is Alexander Canario?

The Chicago Cubs called up one of the best-hitting prospects in baseball to begin September. But he hasn’t seen the field all that much since being called up by the Cubs.

Canario hit nine home runs and 47 RBIs in 233 plate appearances in the minors, creating a lot of buzz when called up.

But manager David Ross explained that the players who got the Cubs in contention will be playing most of the games this year.

Canario is not on the MLB injury report. He’s active. However, he’ll be a bench player. He’ll get into the game when needed for running, fielding, or as a pinch-hitter. If there’s a double-header, maybe you’ll see him play. Canario could fill in for someone over the weekend when a guy needs rest.

But it’s hard to imagine anyone but a catcher needs rest while the team is competing for a playoff spot. All starters want to play in September, knowing what’s at stake.

Although Canario won’t play much in the MLB, his manager believes it’s essential for young players to learn. David Ross thinks Canario will learn valuable stuff on the bench as he watches other big league players prepare for each game.

Diamondbacks Claimed Seby Zavala Off Waivers

Seby Zavala was claimed off waivers by the Diamondbacks on Wednesday. He was designated for assignment by the White Sox earlier this week and has no options remaining. Therefore, he’ll head straight to the MLB club to help Arizona earn a playoff bid in the National League.

It’s unclear what the Diamondbacks saw in him. He’s hit a .155 average, with seven home runs and 16 RBIs this season. His OPS is at .511, which is extremely low.

Zavala had a career year last season, hitting .270 with an OBP of .347 in 178 at-bats. However, things have gone just like in 2019 and 2021 this year. He’s been terrible.

Arizona has had two catchers on the depth chart throughout the season. Gabriel Moreno has been the starter, and Jose Herrera has been the backup. Herrera will likely lose his spot on the MLB team to Zavala. It wasn’t like Herrera was doing any better. He’s hit a .202 average with a .296 OBP in 94 at-bats.

Being a backup catcher is extremely difficult. These guys don’t play every day and are expected to produce when given a chance—it takes lots of reps to get comfortable in the box.

Zevala is likely coming over as a solid fielding catcher to help a horrendous bullpen.

Below is our D’Backs vs Cubs preview for each game, including the probable pitchers.

Early Odds: RL Chicago -1.5 (+110), ML Chicago -159, O/U -110/-110

Ryne Nelson will get the call in Game 1. He’s a right-hander, who only struck out 12.5% of batters in his last start. This season, he’s given up a .234 ISO and wOBA of .370 to 540 batters. He’s allowed a .237 ISO and wOBA of .377 to lefties and a .231 ISO and wOBA of .363 to righties over the last month.

Nelson has limited walks to 6.7%, which is the only good thing he’s done this season.

Nelson will face Javier Assad to begin the four-game series for the Cubs. Assad has only struck out 19% of batters in the last month. But he’s worked up to an average of 90 pitches per start in the previous 30 days. Assad has also limited teams to a .119 ISO and wOBA of .247 despite having little trouble against lefties.

Zac Gallen will get the call for the Diamondbacks in the second MLB matchup. Gallen has allowed a .183 ISO and wOBA of .334 to his last 123 batters. The damage mainly comes from lefties, who have smacked a .233 ISO and wOBA of .386 in their previous 65 plate appearances against Gallen. Gallen has allowed over 59% of hard contact but has earned 50% of grounders in the last 30 days.

He’ll take on Jameson Taillon, who has been just as bad against right-handed batters. Taillon has allowed a .242 ISO and wOBA of .367 with the Cubs over the last month. The righty has limited walks, but he’s allowed almost 29% of fly balls and has only struck out 22% of batters in the last month.

Gallen is strictly the better pitcher. But he’s struggled against lefties in the last month. Players like Ian Happ and Cody Bellinger have the most potential in this game. Baseball scores typically go in the Diamondbacks’ way when the Gallen is on the mound. However, the Cubs have the better matchup. If Chicago is an underdog, they should be considered here.

Arizona will pitch Merrill Kelly for Game 3 of the four-game series. Kelly has held teams to a .152 ISO and wOBA of .309 over the last month. He’s also struck out 28.7% of batters and has earned nearly 48% of grounders. Kelly has struggled a bit against righties, where he’s given up a .236 ISO and wOBA of .324 to his last 76 righties. But overall, Kelly has dominated the previous month and throughout the year.

Kelly will face Justin Steele, who has been one of the best starters in the game this year. Steele has struck out 32.8% of batters in the last month and has held teams to a .087 ISO and wOBA of .256 over the previous month.

Arizona doesn’t have much power against lefties, either. They’ve hit a .146 ISO, with Carroll, Ketel Marte, Pham, and Walker doing all the damage. The rest of the lineup hasn’t hit for power against lefties in the last 30 days. Meanwhile, Kelly will be tough to hit for the Cubs.

I’d take the Under in Game 3.

The rookie right-hander Brandon Pfaadt has allowed a .271 ISO and wOBA of .361 to his last 52 lefties. He’s struggled with lefties all year but has settled in against righties over the previous month. Pfaadt has allowed 31.6% of fly balls and 30.4% of line drives while only inducing 29.1% of grounders in the last month. That will rarely get the job done.

Pfaadt will face a veteran righty in Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks started the season late and didn’t look good right away. But over the last month, he’s held teams to a .061 ISO and wOBA of .266. I’d still side with the Cubs in Game 4.

After the weekend, Chicago will be more comfortable inside the NL Wild Card.

For MLB betting news, baseball odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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