Phillies vs Padres Betting Preview: 2022 NLCS Rematch Opener

Padres Seek to Extend Winning Streak Against Phillies

The Phillies and Padres squared off in the 2022 National League Championship Series. However, barring some unforeseen circumstances, only the Phillies will be returning to the postseason in 2023. Phillies vs Padres betting preview favors the Phillies in the series opener.

When catching up on the baseball playoff picture, Philadelphia is holding down the top wild-card spot in the National League six games out of the final playoff spot in the NL.

Philadelphia is just 34-35 on the road this season with San Diego 37-34 at home. Still, the Phillies are the slight favorites in the series opener at -115 with the total set at 9.

When looking at the MLB divisional standings, Philadelphia is 15.5 games behind first-place Atlanta in the NL East with the Padres sitting fourth in the NL West.

Philadelphia won three of the four meetings when the teams squared off in July with all four games finishing over the total. The teams had split 10 regular-season meetings before the Phillies took five of the last six matchups. When the teams met in the 2022 postseason, none of the six probable starting pitchers in this series took part in the National League Championship Series.

The teams combined for 14 home runs in the four games last month with Philadelphia’s Kyle Schwarber homering twice and Manny Machado of the Padres going deep twice.

The Phillies (+1600) are eighth in the odds to win the World Series with the Padres well back at +50000 in the championship odds.

Probable Starting Pitchers

• Monday: Taijuan Walker (Phillies); Rich Hill (Padres)
• Tuesday: Michael Lorenzen (Phillies); Pedro Avila (Padres)
• Wednesday: Cristopher Sanchez (Phillies); Michael Wacha (Padres)

Packing Quite a Punch

Philadelphia’s playoff push has been led by the Phillies’ home-run prowess.

Since the MLB All-Star Game, only the Atlanta Braves have more home runs than the 80 hit by the Phillies. Philadelphia is also second in the majors with a .476 slugging percentage during that stretch. Keep that in mind when looking at the Phillies vs Padres betting preview.

Kyle Schwarber’s 17 home runs are the most in the majors in the second half of the season. Bryce Harper and Trea Turner have combined for 23 more home runs.

In Schwarber’s last 46 games, he has more home runs than singles. However, he does have 48 walks.

Failing to Deliver in the Clutch

There are five National League teams with run differentials of +50 or higher. Four of them, including the Phillies, are in playoff position. The lone exception is the Padres as San Diego is eight games under .500.

A 6-22 mark in one-run games and a 0-11 record in extra-inning affairs have kept the Padres well back in the National League playoff race. That could come into play in the Phillies vs Padres betting preview.

The Padres are last in the National League with a .234 average with runners in scoring position. Gary Sanchez, He-Seong Kim, Rougned Odor, Jake Cronenworth, Trent Grisham, and Xander Bogaerts are all hitting under .250 with runners in scoring position this season.

Who’s Hot

• Xander Bogaerts, San Diego Padres SS: Bogaerts is 9-for-17 with three runs and five extra-base hits in his last four games.
• Luis Garcia, San Diego Padres P: Garcia has given up four hits and no runs in 8.1 innings over his last six outings.
• Matt Strahm, Philadelphia Phillies P: Strahm has allowed nine hits and one run with 15 strikeouts in 12.1 innings over his last 10 appearances.
• Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies SS: Turner is hitting .361 with 17 runs with nine home runs, 13 extra-base hits and 21 RBIs during his 14-game hitting streak.

Who’s Not

• Trent Grisham, San Diego Padres OF: Grisham is 2-for-32 with 15 strikeouts over his last 13 games.
• Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies 1B-DH: Harper is 0-for-12 with three strikeouts in his last three games.
• Rich Hill, San Diego Padres P: Hill is 0-3 with an ERA of 8.50 in five games since joining the Padres
• Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies P: Sanchez has surrendered six home runs in his last five games as he has given up 31 hits and 18 runs in 27.2 innings during that stretch.

Phillies vs Padres Injury Update

Philadelphia outfielder Brandon Marsh was not in the lineup on Sunday.

Infielders Ji-Man Choi and Jake Cronenworth are out for the Padres as are pitchers Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, and Steven Wilson for the Padres. Catcher Luis Campusano left the last game due to injury and his status is up in the air heading into this series.

Phillies vs Padres Betting Preview

The good news for Philadelphia is that the Phillies won’t be facing Blake Snell, one of the front-runners in the NL Cy Young Award race during the series.

The Phillies are 7-2 in the last nine regular-season games played in San Diego.

The Padres take a three-game winning streak into this series. Is it too little, too late?

The Phillies and Padres are 108-86 when listed as the favorite this season compared to a 26-43 mark as an underdog.

When looking at the baseball scores, only two of the last 12 games in the regular season between the Padres and Phillies have been decided by one run.

The Phillies are 31-37 against the spread on the road this season with the Padres covering in 35 of 71 home games.

The total has gone over in four of Philadelphia’s last five games.

San Diego is 4-1 in its last five games at home and Philadelphia s 8-4 over the last 12 games.

For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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