Marlins vs Nationals Series Preview: Miami’s Playoff Push Potential
Miami Still in Hunt for NL WC Spot
The Miami Marlins have fallen to the NL Wild Card standings in the second half of the MLB season. If the playoffs began today, the Marlins would not be in it.
Miami’s behind the Phillies, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Giants, and Reds in the NL Wild Card. The chances they make an NL Wild Card spot are getting slimmer by the day.
However, they’ll take on a Washington Nationals team with a much worse record. The Nationals are in a rebuild and have already conceded this season.
Therefore, the Marlins have four games against a weaker opponent to regain a top-three spot in the NL Wild Card.
Look at our Marlins vs Nationals series preview for the four-game weekend series.
Marlins vs Nationals 
Day/Time: Thursday, August 31st, 7:05 pm ET
Location: Nationals Park
David Robertson Demoted From Closer Role
The Marlins can’t afford any more blown saves.
Miami added Robertson at the MLB Deadline from the Mets. They instantly made him the closer. But he hasn’t pitched nearly as well as he did with the Mets.
The 38-year-old veteran earned 14 saves with a 2.05 ERA with the Mets. He also struck out 48 batters in 44 innings.
When he went to the Marlins, Robertson threw a 7.20 ERA in 10 innings. He’s had four saves in those ten innings.
The Marlins tabbed Tanner Scott as the closer for the near future. Scott has just three saves this season. However, he’s also got a 2.55 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. Scott earned his first save as the “real” closer on August 27th against the Nationals at home.
The Marlins are still in the playoff hunt and can’t afford to lose any more ground, especially in games where they lead in the ninth inning.
Former Stud Pitcher Will Retire
The Nationals had a once-in-a-lifetime prospect in Stephen Strasburg. The right-hander debuted in 2010 and had a 2.91 ERA in 12 games. He struck out 92 batters and walked just 17 in his rookie season. The right-hander threw five more games in 2011, finishing with a 1.50 ERA and a WHIP of .71.
Strasburg had a career ERA of 3.24 through 247 starts. But his downfall began in 2020.
After throwing in 33 starts in 2019, he could only start in eight more games between 2020, 2021, and 2022.
His stuff was never the same once the injuries piled on.
Therefore, Strasburg has now officially retired at the age of 35. He’ll be owed $105 million despite his retirement after signing a contract extension in 2019.
The right-handed ace led the Nationals to a World Series in 2019. He put together an insane Game 6 that showed the Nationals to a Game 7 against the Astros in that series.
Strasburg was a three-time All-Star and peaked in 2019, winning the World Series, the World Series MVP, the 2019 Babe Ruth Award, and the 2019 All-MLB First Team honor. But his career was finished once he landed on the MLB injury report in 2020.
His hype was comparable to Paul Skenes’ hype with the Pirates. He was “the” pitcher everyone raved about. And he delivered until he couldn’t anymore.
Let’s look at the Marlins vs Nationals series preview, including the probable pitches for the four-game series.
Early Odds: RL Miami -1.5 (+100), ML Miami -155, O/U -103/-117
âš¾ Game 1 âš¾
Thursday, 7:05 pm ET
Braxton Garrett vs Joan Adon
The Marlins vs Nationals series preview will begin with Braxton Garrett on the mound for the Marlins. The left-hander has only struck out 15.7% of batters in the last month, but he’s limited walks to 3.5% and has held teams to a respectable .165 ISO and wOBA of .311 in the previous 30 days.
Garrett has earned 56% of grounders in the last month and has kept fly balls and line drives down in that span.
Garrett will face Joan Adoan of the Nationals. Adon has only struck out 21.1% of batters in the last month. He’s also watched lefties hit a .257 ISO and wOBA of .341 in the previous 30 days against him.
The Marlins will face four righties in this series. Using the projected lineup, the offense has hit a .181 ISO and wOBA of .301 against righties over the last month. The lineup will shuffle throughout the weekend. But overall, the team has five batters hitting a wOBA of at least .321 against and five batters hitting an ISO of at least .169 against righties over the last month. The one consistent hitter against righties has been Jorge Soler.
Miami’s lefties in the lineup haven’t performed well against righties lately. But they can change that against Adon.
On the other hand, the Nationals have many players hitting lefties well over the last 30 days. Since returning from the MLB injury report, Carter Kieboom just returned to the lineup and has slugged against lefties. Joey Meneses and Keibert Ruiz also hit a high wOBA and have a low strikeout rate against lefties.
Washington’s lineup will put the ball in play against Garrett. When the ball is in play, good things typically happen. Although the Marlins are the favorite for Game 1, sitting at -162, we like the Nationals at +136. The total is at 9.5, with the Under juiced to -120. But the Nationals on the moneyline would be part of my MLB expert picks.
âš¾ Game 2 âš¾
Friday, 7:05 pm ET
Eury Perez vs Jake Irvin
The Marlins have toyed around with Eury Perez’s innings this season. But if he were given an entire season on the major league mound, Perez would be a potential NL Rookie of the Year candidate. He’s struck out nearly 36% of batters over the last month. Teams have also hit just a .278 wOBA against Perez in that time.
Perez didn’t earn many ground balls and allowed plenty of fly balls and line drives. But the catch is that players must hit the ball in play first. That’s been hard against Perez.
He’ll take on Jake Irvin of the Nationals. Irvin, like Adon, has been destroyed by lefties, allowing a .275 ISO and wOBA of .406 to his last 60 lefties. Again, the Marlins haven’t been feared against righties, but those lefties in the Miami lineup, including Luis Arraez and Jazz Chisholm, would be in solid position to do damage.
Also, don’t expect the Nationals to succeed much against the rising sensation in Eury Perez.
âš¾ Game 3 âš¾
Saturday, 7:05 pm ET
Bryan Hoeing vs Trevor Williams
Bryan Hoeing will get a chance to stick around in the Miami rotation. Hoeing has held his last 41 batters to a .103 ISO and wOBA of .224. He’s also induced 60% of grounders, has held teams to a 16.7% line drive percentage, and has kept walks down to 4.9% in the last 30 days.
Teams are whiffing at Hoeing’s pitches right now.
On the other hand, no teams are whiffing against Trevor Williams of the Nationals. He’s allowed a .308 ISO and wOBA of 389 to his last 118 batters.
Hoeing has improved, while Williams has regressed. I’d back the Marlins in Game 3 of the series.
âš¾ Game 4 âš¾
Sunday, 1:35 pm ET
Sandy Alcantara vs Josiah Gray
We got the Marlins winning two of the first three games in the series. They’ll rely on former NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara, who will pitch in the Marlins vs Nationals series preview finale. Alcantara could potentially look to close out the series if the Marlins win two of three earlier.
Alcantara hasn’t pitched like he did last year. But he’s at least limited and walks well. He’s also held teams to a wOBA of under .300 and has induced a very high rate of ground balls.
Meanwhile, Josiah Gray has allowed a .194 ISO and wOBA of .359 over the last month with the Nationals. Gray has walked 16% of batters in that time and has struck out under 20%. The young righty rarely induces ground balls and has allowed over 29% of fly balls in the last 30 days.
Alcantara and the Marlins stack up better in Game 4.
We’ve got the Marlins earning three of four against the Nationals over the weekend. That should help them gain ground in the National League baseball standings.
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