Cubs vs Reds Preview: Has Cincinnati Run Out Of Gas?

As we approach September, the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds will play a pivotal four-game series over the weekend.

The Cubs are a bit closer in the NL Central, but it’s unlikely that the Cubs or Reds will win the NL Central division over the Brewers. Therefore, these two teams are likely fighting for three spots in the NL Wild Card.

If the playoffs ended today, the Cubs would be in the playoffs after a historic second-half run. Meanwhile, the Reds wouldn’t be. But with a potential four-game sweep or even a series win against the Cubs, the Reds would inch closer in the National League Baseball standings.

Here’s a look at the Cubs vs Reds preview for the four-game series between the NL Central rivals.

No Signs of Marcus Stroman Yet

The Chicago Cubs are a little thin with their starting pitching. That’s because Marcus Stroman has been on the injured list with a rib injury.

Stroman had been one of the Cubs’ aces on the staff this season. He was 10-8 with a 3.85 ERA before landing on the MLB injured list.

Stroman should be back before the regular season concludes. He was just seen doing some long tossing on Wednesday. But that doesn’t mean he’s close to returning.

The Cubs would love to have Stroman back in the rotation in a tight National League race. But if they believe he’ll be out longer, Chicago might want to look at players who were put on Waivers earlier this week.

The pitchers on waivers include Mike Clevinger from the White Sox, Lucas Giolito from the Angels, and Carlos Carrasco from the Mets.

Giolito pitched for the White Sox earlier this year, and Clevinger is in Chicago with the White Sox right now. Therefore, those two pitchers likely wouldn’t have trouble getting acclimated with the Cubs.

Don’t be surprised if the Cubs make some moves on the waiver wire. However, the waiver wire isn’t first come, first serve. The Cubs don’t just get to pick up a player right away. It’s a process that allows the worst teams to add players from the waiver wire first. We’ll see if the Cubs jump at any opportunity with Stroman still unavailable. More depth wouldn’t hurt.

Are The Reds Going to Collapse?

The Reds have been a fun story all year long.

But Cincinnati was just one out away from getting no-hit on Tuesday. They also lost Joey Votto and Matt McLain to the injured list over the last few weeks.

Meanwhile, the Reds got ace pitcher Hunter Greene back on the mound, and he’s looked bad since returning to the bump for Cincinnati.

The Reds are still in the race for the National League Wild Card. But as each day passes, the Reds’ hopes of making the playoffs diminish.

The Reds haven’t seen good results out of ace pitcher Hunter Greene since he returned from the injured list. He just pitched against San Francisco and won’t have a start in this upcoming series. Meanwhile, Nick Lodolo, the team’s other ace starter, was pulled from a rehab assignment earlier this week. He had a setback due to a tibia injury and might not see the field again this season.

The Reds were banking on Greene and Lodolo returning to form in August and September for a playoff push. Thus, they didn’t go after any big pitchers at the MLB Trade Deadline. It might’ve backfired.

We’ll talk about Hunter Greene’s next start and all the other probable pitchers in the Cubs vs Reds preview below.

To begin the Cubs vs Reds preview, it’ll be left-hander Jordan Wicks on the mound for the Cubs. Wicks hasn’t thrown at the significant league level recently. He’s only thrown against 18 batters this season but has struck out 50% of those batters. He’s also held a .204 wOBA in that time.

You’d like to think he’ll be able to pitch five innings in this first game.

On the other hand, Graham Ashcraft will take the hill for the Reds in the first game of the doubleheader. Ashcraft has limited teams to a wOBA of .297 over the last month. However, righties hit a .271 ISO and wOBA of .360 against Ashcraft last month. Ashcraft’s been good, but the Cubs can get to him too.

Using their projected lineup, the Cubs have hit over a .245 ISO and wOBA of over .375 against righties in the last 30 days. Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger, and righties Dansby Swanson and Seiya Suzuki have all hit an above-average ISO against righties over the last 30 days.

The Reds don’t have much power against lefties. Only Nick Senzel and Spencer Steer have produced much over the last 30 days.

The baseball scores are lopsided, anytime the Cubs get a right-handed pitcher back the Cubs! In this game, they’re -105 with the Reds at -105. The total is 9.5, with the Under juiced to -115.

Ben Lively will likely take the hill for the Reds. His strikeouts are down since he returned to the hill from an injury. But he’s kept walks down to 4.1%. He’s always been great at keeping walks down, but he’s allowed a .435 ISO and wOBA of .550 against his last 49 batters.

It’s unclear who the starter will be for the Cubs in the second game of the doubleheader at this time.

In the third game of the series, Javier Assad will get the call for the Cubs. The right-hander has only thrown about 83 pitches per start over the last 30 days. Assad has also allowed a .171 ISO and wOBA of .324 to 148 lefties this season.

He’s been outstanding against righties. But lefties have potential against Assad, especially when it comes to extra-base hits.

Assad will try and go toe-to-toe with Andrew Abbott of the Cubs. He’s a lefty, allowing a .229 ISO and wOBA of .394. There are concerns about fatigue, but he has a matchup in which he should perform well.

The Cubs haven’t been as fortunate against lefties. Christopher Morel has hit a .438 ISO and wOBA of .430, and Jeimer Candelario has slugged a .217 ISO and wOBA of .439 over the last 30 days against lefties. However, those are the only two consistent hitters against lefties in the Chicago lineup over the previous month.

On the other hand, the Reds have performed much better against lefties. The projected lineup has an ISO of nearly .210 and a wOBA of over .330 in the last 30 days. The entire lineup should have above-average power numbers against righties if the projected lineup is what the Reds put out there.

I’d take the Reds in Game 3.

In the finale, Jameson Taillon will get the ball. Taillon has struck out just 20.7% of batters in the last month. He’s also allowed a .189 ISO and wOBA of .336 to his previous 140 batters faced.

Taillon has kept walks down, but he’s also allowed over 27% of fly balls and line drives and has induced only 36.2% of grounders over the last month.

Again, the Cubs haven’t performed well against lefties compared to their actions against righties over the last month. They’ll face Brandon Williamson, who has turned into the ace of the Reds staff in the second half. He’s struck out over 29% of batters in the last month and has held teams to a .118 ISO and woBA of .265 against his previous 116 batters.

My MLB predictions in this Cubs vs Reds preview is that the Reds likely win three out of four against the Cubs on the road.

For MLB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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