Graham Ashcraft Stats: Reds’ Patchwork Rotation in Need of Boost

Looking to climb back atop the National League Central, the Cincinnati Reds will turn to right-hander Graham Ashcraft Wednesday (7:10 p.m. ET) against the San Francisco Giants at home. Ashcraft’s overall numbers (4-7, 5.95 ERA) are poor, but he’s been better of late.

In his last start, Friday against the rival Milwaukee Brewers, Ashcraft allowed just one run in six innings. He didn’t have much to show for it, losing 1-0, but the Reds are obviously hoping it’s the start of something good.

Read on as we take a closer look at Ashcraft’s numbers ahead of his next appearance.

(Not So) Homer Happy

Home runs remain an issue for Graham Ashcraft, though he’s done better of late. He’s allowed just one homer over his last three starts, including none this month. Prior to that, Ashcraft was tagged for six runs on 10 hits over four innings in a 7-6 loss to the Atlanta Braves. The Braves, who lead the majors in homers, took Ashcraft deep three times: Travis d’Arnaud, Ozzie Albies, and Matt Olson.

Unsurprisingly, Ashcraft has been especially prone to the long ball at home. Great American Ball Park, remember, consistently ranks among the most hitter-friendly baseball fields. Ten of his 13 homers have been allowed there.

San Francisco ranks 13th in MLB in homers, according to MLB team stats. Outfielder Michael Conforto has a team-high 13, followed by third baseman J.D. Davis (11), outfielder Mike Yastrzemski (11), and catcher Blake Sabol (10).

Home Away from Home

Ashcraft has far better on the road than at home. Sense a theme here? His ERA over 38.2 innings away from Great American Ball Park is 4.42. That, of course, is not great. However, it’s still markedly better than his 7.16 ERA at home.

The 25-year-old right-hander has allowed six runs or more in four of his 10 home starts, where he is just 2-6. Last month, in particular, was problematic for Ashcraft. He registered an unsightly 10.38 ERA over 17.1 innings, with 25 hits (six homers) allowed.

Altogether, Ashcraft’s 5.95 ERA would rank toward the bottom among qualified starters. Only Colorado’s Austin Gomber (6.19), Chicago’s Lance Lynn (6.06), and Kansas City’s Jordan Lyles (6.05) have been worse.

Wild Thing

Prone to free passes, Ashcraft has walked multiple batters in 12 of his 17 starts. He has issued five walks in 12 innings this month and 37 over 87.2 total innings. That’s tied with two others for the 26th-most in baseball.

Ashcraft doesn’t miss many bats either (6.47 K/9), which could be a problem against San Francisco’s patient lineup. The Giants are tied for ninth among MLB lineups in walks, with 319. Granted, they have also struck out the fourth-most times (883).

Odds Outlook

Despite falling back into second place in the National League Central, 2.0 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers, the Cincinnati Reds remain moderately priced by oddsmakers. The Reds are +225 to win the division, a seismic leap from their spring training tag of +6600. Notably, they’re also +225 to make the playoffs. The last time they qualified was the COVID-shortened 2020 season.

Should the Reds remain in the postseason race, pitching will be a prime focus at the Aug. 1 trade deadline. Cincinnati ranks 26th in both ERA (4.78) and WHIP (1.44). Additionally, the Reds have logged the fourth-fewest quality starts in the majors, 24.

Injuries to Hunter Greene (hip) and Nick Lodolo (lower leg) have weakened Cincinnati’s rotation depth, necessitating the need for dependable veteran arms. Ashcraft is currently the only pitcher on the staff to throw at least 75 innings this season. That doesn’t bode well.

For Graham Ashcraft stats, odds, analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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