Mariners vs Rays Series Preview: Rays a Rare Home Underdog

Solid Battle of Second-Place Teams in Tampa

September 7, 2023 301 3 minutes readMLB Picks & Parlays

Mariners vs Rays Series Preview: Rays a Rare Home Underdog — DYLAN BUELL / GETTY IMAGES

Mariners vs Rays
Thursday's Game
Friday's Game
Saturday's Game
Sunday's Game

The Seattle Mariners and Tampa Bay Rays begin a four-game series in Tampa on Thursday. Both MLB teams are in playoff positions right now, although both are locked into wild card spots. Seattle trails Houston by 1.0 games in the American League West. The Rays are 3.5 games behind Baltimore in the AL East. The Mariners vs Rays series preview sees Seattle hasn’t yet named its pitchers for the final two games of the series.

But the Mariners have named their pitcher for Thursday and it’s Luis Castillo, who is 11-7 with a 3.19 ERA. The Mariners have gone 16-12 when he starts this season, but just 6-7 when he starts on the road. The Rays will counter with Zack Littell, who is 3-4 with a 4.69 ERA. Littell began the season in the bullpen but has become strictly a starter recently. The Rays are 5-5 when he starts. The Mariners are -130 in the game, marking just the third time the Rays have been a home underdog this season. The total is 8.

The MLB offense rankings give Tampa Bay the edge. The Rays are No. 8 in team batting average, while the Mariners are No. 19. Tampa Bay is fourth in runs scored compared to the Mariners are No. 11. Both teams are in the top 10 in home runs.

The pitching stats are pretty even between the two. Seattle is No. 2 in team ERA, while the Rays are No. 3. Seattle’s closers have been a little better, covering 40 of 60 save opportunities, while the Rays’ staff has converted 39 out of 65 opportunities.

One advantage the Rays do have is against .500 and better teams. Tampa Bay is 48-38 against those teams. Seattle is 35-39. The Mariners are solid on the road at 39-32, but Tampa Bay is 47-24 at home this season.

Mariners vs Rays

Date & Time: Thursday, September 7, 6:40 pm ET
Location: Tropicana Field

Thursday’s Game

The Rays have split their two games as a home underdog this year. It’s tough to go against Tampa Bay at home but there’s no denying Seattle has a pitching advantage in this one. It’s also hard to ignore the fact that Seattle has been average with Castillo on the road this season. From a value standpoint, taking Tampa Bay +110 in this one is the best wager on the game.

Friday’s Game

The Mariners vs Rays series preview shows George Kirby and Taj Bradley as the scheduled starters. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Seattle favored once again, although the game should be pretty close to even. Kirby is 10-9 with a 3.39 ERA, while Bradley is 5-7 with a 5.42 ERA. The Mariners are 14-12 when Kirby starts and 6-8 when he starts on the road. The Rays are just 7-10 when Bradley starts and they’ve had two exceptionally bad games. Bradley started the 20-1 loss to the Blue Jays and also started last month’s 17-4 loss to Houston. Those two games distort the season stats a bit. This is much like the opener, where Seattle’s starter has better number numbers, while the Rays are better offensively and at home.

Saturday’s Game

The Mariners vs Rays series preview has Aaron Civale are the starter for the Rays. Civale has gone 7-3 with a 2.76 ERA this season and is 2-1 with a 3.82 ERA in six starts for Tampa Bay. The Rays are 4-2 in the games Civale has started. While Seattle hasn’t named its pitcher, Bryan Woo would be next up in the rotation, so he should pitch one of the two-weekend games. He hasn’t pitched badly, with Seattle going 7-7 in his starts and 5-4 when he starts on the road. Seattle has allowed three runs or less in five of Woo’s nine road starts. But Civale has been tough this season, both for the Guardians and the Rays. The MLB score predictions have Tampa Bay winning by 1.22 runs, so they could be the side to take for your baseball picks in this one.

Sunday’s Game

The Rays are going to give the ball to Zach Eflin and he’s been solid for Tampa Bay all season. Eflin is 13-8 on the season with a 3.47 ERA. The Rays are 19-8 when Eflin starts and 12-4 when he starts at home. But he has struggled a bit in his last three home starts, with the Rays going 1-2 and allowing 21 runs. This is another game where Seattle hasn’t named its starter, but Bryce Miller would be up next in the rotation. The Mariners have gone 13-8 with Miller on the mound and 5-4 when he starts on the road. Despite Eflin’s recent struggles, he’s going to offer the most value provided the line is reasonable for the Rays.

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