How To Bet On MLB’s New Stolen Base Landscape
The New Rules Have Made Stealing Cool Again
The common justification provided by MLB for most of the new rules implemented for the 2023 MLB season — most notably, the pitch clock — was that the sport needed to be brought back to an “earlier time” when games were shorter, there was more action and stolen bases were attempted constantly. If that was MLB’s ultimate goal with the hopes that fans would enjoy game action more, than it appears that the new rules have been a home run (pun intended).
The stolen base analytics for betting show that league-wide stolen base success rate thus far in 2023 has been a tick above 79%, which is easily the highest rate in MLB history. The previous high came in 2021, interestingly, but that was only 75.7%. Now, with bigger bases and limited pickoffs (or other pitcher disengagements), it has become much easier to swipe bags. The distance between bases that runners have to cover is shorter, the time pitchers have to hold runners on is shorter, and the methods that pitchers have at their disposal to deter baserunners are fewer in number.
Accordingly, stolen base attempts are also way up per MLB results through the beginning of May. A whopping 0.89 steals are being attempted per team game in 2023, the highest figure since 2012. Note that this statistic is per individual team game so, when combined between the two MLB teams facing off on any given night, around 1.8 steals are being attempted in each MLB game.
That kind of number hearkens back to the so-called golden age of MLB base-stealing in the 1980s, when the likes of Rickey Henderson and Vince Coleman regularly stole more than 100 bases in a season. On a per-game basis, there have been more steals in 2023 than in any MLB season since 1992.
So, how has that affected the gambling side of things? As you’d expect, the sportsbooks have already adjusted to the new stolen base environment. Typically, stolen base bets for individual players are set at over (or under) 0.5 steals per game with the MLB odds going anywhere from -20000 for the under (for the Baltimore Orioles‘ Austin Hays and his 11 career steals) to +255 for the over (for the Atlanta Braves‘ Ronald Acuña Jr. and his league-leading 14 steals this season). The stolen base analytics for betting say that a bet on Acuña is solid considering that he has had a steal in every other game or so for the Braves. That makes it decent value.
Of course, the MLB standings for stolen bases can vary wildly throughout the season so Acuña probably won’t steal 80 bases by the end of the 2023 campaign. But, with the rule changes and their almost-immediate and pronounced effect not only on stolen base attempts but also on stolen base success rate, it’s smart to look at overs if you want to capture value.
In order to do so effectively, though, you’ll need a lot of patience. Since there isn’t much money to be made on taking unders — due to the odds always be very heavily juiced in favor of any given player not stealing a base in a given game — the move is to be consistent with overs, focusing on players who are relatively consistent in terms of notching a steal every few games but who aren’t necessarily expected to swipe many bags.
The sportsbooks are aware of this, though, which is why you have to be careful with players who might seem like good odds-on bets but who might be overpriced. Tim Anderson is a good example of someone who checks out well in stolen base analytics for betting. In just 13 games, Anderson has stolen 5 bases.
That’s good for a steal every .38 games, so to speak. However, he is currently just +350 to have more than 0.5 steals in the White Sox–Twins game on Thursday. For that bet to be a “profitable” one based on what Anderson’s stolen base tendencies have been so far, he would need to be +390 or higher.
Unfortunately, the sportsbooks aren’t going to offer many stolen base lines with uncaptured value for regular bettors so, sometimes, you’ll have to “give up” that slight value edge if you want to take good base-stealing ‘over’. That’s more of a personal preference than anything else and, if the rest of the season looks like March/April/early May in terms of the stolen base landscape, then it’s going to be a smart idea to jump on as many elite stealers’ overs as possible (within reason of course).
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