Major League Baseball Thursday Recap & Analysis
Public Enjoys 8-3 Night on Run Line, Loses Big with Angels
Our MLB Thursday recap and analysis starts with the biggest game on the betting board between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Pittsburgh Pirates. Bettors are starting to believe in the Pirates after 70% of the moneyline money came in on the Bucs behind just 51% of the overall tickets. That means that the wise guys with the big money are all in on Derek Shelton’s team which leads the National League Central by 1.5 games over the Milwaukee Brewers. Let’s continue our MLB Thursday recap and analysis by looking at the book’s biggest wins and losses.
Ohtani, Angels Fall Short in Win vs Athletics
The Angels are not yet one of the MLB’s best teams, but that never stops the betting public from getting their cash behind the best player in the majors, especially when he’s on the mound.
Thursday, Shohei Ohtani (4-0) pitched well enough to get Los Angeles to 14-12 on the season, but this wasn’t one of his better outings or results for bettors. 99% of the run-line wagers were on the Angels who held a 5-0 lead after three.
That was short-lived after the Athletics matched their five runs in the top of the fourth. Run-line bettors were quickly back in line for a win when Los Angeles scored twice in the fifth and once in the sixth. With Los Angeles leading by two, Athletics pinch-hitter Carlos Perez singled to drive in Jesus Aguilar to cut the final margin to one, sending Angels run-line bets to the trash.
The Angels closed as a consensus -327 favorite after opening -305. 96% of the moneyline tickets were also on Los Angeles. Ohtani pitched six innings, giving up three hits and five earned runs, 2 walks, and 8 strikeouts. The 28-year-old Ohtani allowed two homers to DH Brent Booker (7th) and Catcher Shea Langeliers, his 6th.
Players Continue to Ride Rays
A two-game losing streak didn’t scare bettors off the Tampa Bay Rays, who blasted the Chicago White Sox and Dylan Cease, 14-5. Tampa was a consensus -164 favorite after getting bet up from an opening number of -147. 80% of the moneyline tickets were on the Rays who maintained their 3 ½ game lead in the American League East.
Isaac Paredes had a career-high RBI, helping the White Sox to their eighth straight loss. To give an idea of how dominant Tampa (21-5) has been, in 26 games they’ve hit 51 homers while averaging 6.58 runs per game. There may be some help on the way for Chicago with starter Liam Hendricks’ possible rehab assignment after battling back from non-Hodgkins lymphoma. Also, all-star SS Tim Anderson will join AAA Charlotte on Wednesday for a rehab assignment.
Anderson has been out of the lineup since April 10th. The completion of Thursday’s MLB scores have wrapped up so let’s conclude our MLB Thursday recap and analysis by looking at another betting angle that could help your bankroll this weekend.
2023 MLB Moneyline Bet Percentage Updates
We often talk about the percentage of wagers, but how do those numbers break down overall and do they change when putting a moneyline filter of less than -200 on our wagers? First, understand that the higher bet percentages will end the season with a terrific record because we don’t have to worry about point spreads. In 2023, the higher moneyline bet percentage is 235-141 (.625) +1355 units.
It is a terrific start for the public and one that is much needed after at least 18 straight losing seasons from a money standpoint. Over the last three seasons, the higher bet percentage is 3278-2374 (.580) but that cost bettors 13,602 units.
So let’s add a few filters and see if we can find a sweet spot. Bet percentages on teams less than a -150 favorite is 107-79 (.575) in 2023, good for 996 units of profit based on $100 wagers. Over the last three seasons, players on games under -150 are 1514-1363 (.526) -5144 units.
Nothing here gives helps bettors who are right most of the time but are getting hammered by the moneyline over the course of a season. Let’s suggest this when just 25-29% of the public is on a team since 2020, they own a poor 251-281 record, but that’s good enough to profit 2983 units because usually, these teams come with a decent plus money price.
This technique has not worked so far in 2023, but you can bet that the public’s early success will start to turn and that’s when we pounce on those upsets. That does it for our Thursday MLB recap and analysis, we wish you all the best this weekend.
Follow us on Twitter
