First Five Innings Odds: Favorites Still Doing Well
Totals Close to Full-Game Record on Season
More sports bettors are wagering on first five innings odds as one way to avoid the relief pitchers on a team. The quality of bullpens has gone down over the years, leading to more frustrating late-inning losses for bettors. The MLB odds are heavily influenced by the starting pitchers. Wagers on the first five innings odds are usually determined by the starters and not the bullpen.
In 2023, there isn’t a big difference in how favorites do for the full game as opposed to the first five innings. Favorites were 92-60 (60.5%) straight-up for the full game. Favorites for the first five innings were 81-50-21 (61.8%), so not a huge difference.Totals followed a similar pattern, going 83-63-6 (56.8%) for the full game and 78-61-13 (56.1%) for the first five innings.
Some teams show a pronounced difference in how they perform for the full game compared to five innings. We’ll look at some of those teams and show where they’re outperforming or underperforming against the first five innings odds. The majority of the differences can be attributed to teams getting good or poor relief pitching. The bullpen is becoming one of the key MLB betting stats for full-game wagers, with few starters throwing complete games.
American League Teams
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles were 5-5 in their first 10 games of the season, showing a slight profit. But the Orioles were 6-3-1 in those games in five inning bets. That’s the result of a bullpen having three saves and two blown saves to go with a 2-2 record. Overall, the bullpen hasn’t been bad but has failed the team when it matters most.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are on the opposite end of the spectrum. Boston was 5-5 through its first 10 games, but just 3-6-1 through five innings. The Red Sox had two saves and no blown saves, along with a 3.09 ERA.
Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians were 7-4 straight-up through 11 games, but just 4-4-3 through five innings. Cleveland’s bullpen has been key to the team’s success. The Guardians’ relievers are 5-2 with five saves and two blown saves to go with a 3.02 ERA. Cleveland was 7-4 in full-game totals but 4-4-3 in totals through five innings.
Houston Astros
The Astros were just 5-6 after a bit of a slow start. But Houston was 4-2-5 against the first five innings odds. The difference can be traced to a bullpen that was 2-4 with two saves and two blown saves.
Los Angeles Angels
The Angeles show a big difference, going 5-5 in their first 10 games but 8-2 for the first five innings. The Los Angeles bullpen has been atrocious, going 2-4 with two saves and three blown saves.
Minnesota Twins
Minnesota was 6-4 through its first 10 games but just 3-5-2 in the first five innings. Minnesota’s bullpen had three saves and no blown saves, along with a 2.64 ERA.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays were 6-4 in their first 10 games of the season but just 2-6-2 through the first five innings.Toronto has gotten some solid relief pitching, which has allowed it to get back in several games. The Blue Jays relievers are 2-0 with six saves and two blown saves on the season.
National League Teams
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks were a surprising 7-4 through their first 11 games of the season. But against the first five innings odds, Arizona was just 3-6-2. The Diamondbacks have seen their relievers go 5-1 with four saves and one blown save.
Atlanta Braves
The Braves were 5-6 in full-game totals for the season, although they went 7-2-2 in five-inning totals. Atlanta’s bullpen has performed well, going 3-1 with two saves and two blown saves with a 3.27 ERA.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds were just 4-5 to start the season but were 5-2-2 in five-inning wagers. Cincinnati would have a better record if not for a bullpen that was 2-5 with a 5.18 ERA. The Reds have three saves and three blown saves.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers were just 6-5 out of the gate in 2023, but 7-2-2 in five-inning bets. The Dodgers bullpen was 1-2 with a 4.29 ERA, but several losses were pinned on starters in the later innings. Still, the relief pitching will be a concern for Los Angeles.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals were just 3-7 in totals to open the season, to go with a 4-3-3 record in five-inning totals. The St. Louis bullpen has been decent, with a 3.58 ERA, but hasn’t pitched as well as the totals record might indicate.
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