Judge, Soto Among Favorites to Dethrone Ohtani for AL MVP
MLB AL MVP Odds: Soto (+600), Alvarez (+800) Among Top Contenders
Shohei Ohtani changed addresses during the offseason, leaving the Los Angeles Angels for the neighboring Dodgers in free agency. With the two-way star from Japan now residing in the National League, the race for American League MVP will realistically be wide open.
As spring training gets underway, New York Yankees outfielder and 2022 AL MVP Aaron Judge is the betting favorite at +550. But he should see plenty of competition, including from new teammate Juan Soto.
What should bettors know? Read on as we break down the 2024 MLB AL MVP odds.
THE FAVORITE
Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees (+550)
Judge made the most of his time in the lineup last season, hitting 37 home runs in just 106 games. He also drove in 75 runs and slugged .613. His slugging percentage would have ranked third in MLB if not for the injuries.
Judge, the MLB AL MVP odds favorite, should see more pitches to hit with Soto in the lineup. If Judge plays at least 130 games, he’ll have a good chance of winning another MVP. But that’s the question bettors must weigh when making their MLB picks.
TOP CONTENDERS
Juan Soto, OF, New York Yankees (+600)
In his only entire season in San Diego, Soto hit a career-high 35 home runs, ranked fourth in MLB with 109 RBI, and had a .930 OPS. Now it’s on to New York, where the 25-year-old outfielder hopes to post dynamite numbers before cashing in during free agency next winter.
Soto should flourish hitting in front of Judge, especially with half of his games in the left-handed bandbox that is Yankee Stadium.
Yordan Alvarez, DH/OF, Houston Astros (+800)
Alvarez missed time with oblique and neck injuries last season and was limited to 114 games. Despite that, Alvarez still hit .293 with 31 homers, 97 RBI, and a .990 OPS, which ranked fifth in the majors. He followed that up with a spectacular postseason in which he batted .465 with six home runs.
If Alvarez can last a whole season, his numbers will undoubtedly stand out.
NEXT IN LINE
Corey Seager, SS, Texas Rangers (+1000)
After finishing second to Shohei Ohtani in MVP voting during the regular season, Seager etched his name alongside a trio of Hall of Famers in October. Seager homered in three of the five games in the Fall Classic and drove in six runs, becoming just the fourth player to win multiple World Series MVP awards besides Sandy Koufax, Bob Gibson, and Reggie Jackson.
Seager’s 1.013 OPS was second in the majors to only Ohtani. It was even better than NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. (1.012).
Seager is taking it slow in MLB spring training after undergoing sports hernia surgery but is expected to be ready for Opening Day. He should continue to put up big numbers if he is healthy.
Julio Rodriguez, OF, Seattle Mariners (+1000)
Rodriguez is coming off a year in which he hit 32 home runs with 103 RBI, stole 37 bases, and produced a 5.3 WAR.
However, he struggled down the stretch, batting just 1-for-24 over the final week as Seattle squandered a chance at the AL West title and missed the playoffs.
Of course, that will be forgotten if Rodriguez has a big season for the playoff-hopeful Mariners.
ON THE OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
Gunnar Henderson, SS, Baltimore Orioles (+1500)
Henderson lived up to his billing as baseball’s top overall prospect, hitting 28 homers with 82 RBI to win AL Rookie of the Year in 2023. He also tripled nine times and stole ten bases while playing multiple positions on the infield.
This year, Henderson is expected to stick at shortstop. If he can make a sophomore leap, he could find himself among the MVP finalists by year’s end.
LONGSHOTS
Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros (+1700)
Tucker was again one of baseball’s most valuable MLB players in 2023, finishing a stolen base short of his first 30/30 season. He led Houston Astros in doubles, triples and RBI and was stellar defensively, logging eight outfield assists.
While Alvarez and Jose Altuve missed significant time with injuries, Tucker managed to play in 157 games.
Tucker remains a top MVP candidate but also risks splitting the vote with the MLB team’s other stars.
Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Kansas City Royals (+2000)
Witt Jr. announced his arrival as one of MLB’s brightest young stars, hitting 30 homers and swiping 49 bases last season. He also led the majors with 11 triples. The notoriously frugal Royals responded by signing the 23-year-old shortstop to an 11-year, $288.5 million extension in February, the largest contract in franchise history.
The Royals — projected for 73.5 wins — may continue to struggle, but not because of Witt Jr.
Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels (+2000)
The three-time MVP is on the backside of his career, having averaged only 79 games over the last three seasons because of injuries.
Trout still has a live bat — he slugged 18 homers and posted an .858 OPS in 82 games last year — so he can’t be written off. He was the preseason MLB AL MVP odds favorite every year from 2013-21, winning the award in 2014, 2016 and 2019. But at 20/1, he is facing his longest preseason odds in over a decade.
If Trout can’t stay healthy, he has no shot at winning. It’s that simple.
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