MLB AL East Division Preview: Will Yankees Return To Top?
Baseball's Toughest Division Is Up For Grabs
Ah, the American League East. Historically, one of baseball’s better divisions is back at it again with four legitimate playoff contenders and one — to be charitable — a team that would be lucky to be in the mix come August or September.
So, the focus of this MLB AL East Division preview is on how, while the Yankees and Orioles are the favorites, this division can be won by anyone. Baltimore is coming off an impressive 101-win season and division title, but that was only two games better than the Rays, with the talented Blue Jays and Yankees in 3rd and 4th.
The Orioles are still loaded with young talent, but there are some questions about pitching. Of course, the Yankees made a big splash by trading for Juan Soto and adding to the outfield. At the same time, Toronto stayed pat, hoping that some positive regression is due from a relatively disappointing lineup.
Tampa Bay is Tampa Bay, and it is always making do with little payroll or free agency activity. Boston was in on some big free agents but didn’t end up improving much to help their baseball scores this season.
This is a fascinating division to look at from a prediction perspective, as there are many really good teams that will likely be locked in a tight race all year. Let’s dive right in:
New York Yankees: +160 division, +1000 World Series, o/u 93.5 wins
It’s a little interesting to see the Yankees above the Orioles here, considering that New York only made one huge “move-the-needle” offseason move. But that one acquisition certainly moves the needle.
By trading from an area of strength (pitching), New York was able to get the biggest name on the trade market and plop him into a lineup and stadium that is perfectly suited for his ability. Once they Yankees got Soto and his lefty power bat for Yankee Stadium’s short right field fence, the MLB odds quickly shifted in New York’s favor.
The Yankees also added Alex Verdugo and Trent Grisham (in the Soto trade) to bring in more useful outfield pieces. Verdugo should play a significant role as the every day left fielder. After an up-and-down 2023 in which he had an All-Star first half and ineffective/injury-laden second half, Marcus Stroman helps in the rotation, but it’s still top-heavy beyond Gerrit Cole.
So much of this MLB AL East Division preview hinges on how Soto and Aaron Judge fare in the Yankees’ lineup.
With some lineup protection from an elite power and on-base threat in Soto, Judge could return to his 60-home run form. If those two guys perform to their full capabilities — and the Yankees do their usual trick of turning average pieces into a dominant bullpen — then this might be New York’s division, and a 100-win campaign could be in the offing.
Still, +160 to win the division seems a bit generous to Aaron Boone’s team.
Baltimore Orioles: +200 division, +1400 World Series, o/u 90.5 wins
Some level of regression is to be expected from a team like the Orioles, for whom pretty much everything went right in 2023. After tons of breakout performances from young players — and with top prospect Jackson Holliday likely to make the Opening Day roster — there’s plenty of optimism in Baltimore on the hitting front.
Still, there is reason to believe the pitching, which was shaky at times in the regular season and was brutal in the playoffs, could hold this team back.
Baltimore was swept 3-0 by the eventual champion Texas Rangers in the AL Division Series portion of the MLB bracket. In response to a pre-spring UCL sprain suffered by the only Orioles’ starter who pitched well in that series, Kyle Bradish, the Orioles traded for Corbin Burnes from the Brewers to help out the rotation.
Burnes should be great in his contract year, but relying on guys like Tyler Wells and Cole Irvin to round out the staff until Bradish comes back is a tricky proposition.
The Orioles will also be without All-Star closer Félix Bautista all season due to Tommy John surgery, so they signed inconsistent veteran Craig Kimbrel, who had a great regular season for the Phillies but was brutal in the NLCS.
How Kimbrel and Yennier Cano do at the end of games with a lead will play a huge role in whether the Orioles repeat as division champions, need to scrap for a Wild Card spot or miss the postseason in a tough AL.
Even with those questions, the lineup is so good from top to bottom that getting Baltimore at +200 to win the AL East is a good bet.
Toronto Blue Jays: +400 division, +2000 World Series, o/u 86.5 wins
The vibes around the Blue Jays are a little weird. For a hot second, they were firmly in the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes and even thought they may have gotten him. Of course, the private plane tracking efforts were all for naught, and he wound up with the Dodgers.
After going 89-73 in 2023 and sneaking into the playoffs (only to be swept in the Wild Card round by the Twins), Toronto is eager to finally break through with this core and win a playoff game for the first time since 2016.
The Blue Jays did sign Justin Turner — ostensibly to replace free agent Matt Chapman — and Cuban swingman pitcher Yariel RodrÃguez, but they haven’t been nearly as active as Toronto fans would like.
Toronto is pretty much running it all back, hoping that Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Daulton Varsho and George Springer can give them more at the plate.
In this MLB AL East Division preview, Toronto is a bit of a wild card. On paper, the Blue Jays should be a 90-win team and should contend for the division title.
But they’ve been plagued by inconsistency on offense and at the back end of the starting rotation. Alek Manoah badly needs to return to form to round out a staff that is solid but doesn’t have the game-breaking ace like the Yankees have with Gerrit Cole. Without an ace, things are tougher.
Tampa Bay Rays: +650 division, +3500 World Series, o/u 84.5 wins
The Rays are so hard to predict because, once again, they will need to replace All-Star production at multiple positions even though they didn’t make any significant offseason additions after going 99-63.
They traded Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers and likely won’t have Shane McClanahan (Tommy John) all season, opening up two rotation spots that will probably be filled by Ryan Pepiot (acquired in the Glasnow trade) and second-year starter Taj Bradley.
Those guys are big question marks, but if history tells us anything, they’ll be just fine for Tampa Bay.
Also, the Rays will have to make up for the production of Wander Franco, who is currently being investigated for potentially sexual abuse of a minor in his native Dominican Republic.
He will likely start the season on MLB’s administrative list and it is very possible he will never play for the Rays, or any MLB team, ever again. Tampa Bay signed Amed Rosario and traded power bat Luke Raley for José Caballero as another middle-infield option, but neither Rosario nor Caballero bring much pop to the table.
Outside of signing veteran reliever Phil Maton, the Rays didn’t do much else to improve this roster. So, things do seem a bit less promising than usual for Tampa Bay to really have a chance in the division.
They play the games for a reason, though, so it wouldn’t be wise to fully count them out. Considering that the Rays haven’t won fewer than 86 games in a full season since 2017, their over/under being 84.5 wins is promising.
Boston Red Sox: +1200 division, +4000 World Series, o/u 79.5 wins
Finally, we get to the Red Sox. In 2023, Boston went 78-84 and finished in last place in the AL East for the second-straight season.
Shortly after the World Series, team chairman Tom Werner said the Red Sox would be in “full throttle” this offseason in a question to improve the roster. As Boston media and Red Sox fans have lamented, ownership’s definition of full throttle seems to be very different from that of most people.
Boston did sign Lucas Giolito to an expensive short-term pillow contract, hoping he can bounce back from an ugly 2023 season in which he allowed an AL-high 41 home runs for the White Sox, Angels and Guardians.
They also traded for Tyler O’Neill and Vaughn Grissom to try and replace what Justin Turner and Adam Duvall brought them last season.
The lineup is pretty disappointing outside of Rafael Devers still and Devers made his disappointment clear last week, noting that ownership needs to add more talent to the Major League roster.
Triston Casas and Jarren Duran are promising young pieces and Masataka Yoshida adjusted himself well in his first MLB season. However, there just isn’t much proven production in that lineup, which Cody Bellinger (who just re-signed with the Cubs) would have been a perfect fit for.
It’s hard to see where the runs will come from for Boston. That’s not a good sign, especially considering how the Red Sox also have a pretty shaky rotation behind Giolito and Brayan Bello with Chris Sale now on the Braves and James Paxton now on the Dodgers. The under is definitely the move for Boston.
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