The Miami Marlins will take on the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 1 of the NL Wild Card between the 4 and 5 seeds in the National League.
The Phillies and Marlins will play a three-game series, each in Philadelphia. The winner of this series will take on a familiar foe, the Atlanta Braves.
The Marlins earned a postseason bid despite having a run differential beyond -50. Meanwhile, the Phillies put together a fantastic second half like last season and reached the top spot in the NL Wild Card.
Can the Philadelphia magic return in the 2023 MLB postseason?
Take a look at the Marlins vs Phillies odds XX for Game 1 of this NL East Rivalry series in the postseason.
Date & Time: Tuesday, October 2nd, 8:08 p.m. ET
Location: Citizens Bank Park
Luis Arraez Won The NL Batting Title!
The Marlins’ second baseman, Luis Arraez, won the NL Batting Title for the first time. He was at the top of the MLB stats leaders from the first day of the season.
However, he became the second player since 1900 to earn back-to-back batting titles in different leagues.
Arraez won the batting title with the Twins last season but was traded for Pablo Lopez in the offseason.
This season. He hit .354 with ten home runs. He also drove in 69 runs and had an OPS of 862 with 574 at-bats. He finished 17 points higher in batting average than Ronald Acuna Jr., who hit .337.
Only D.J. LeMahieu has ever won back-to-back batting titles in different leagues.
Last season, Arraez hit .316 with the Twins. So, he improved drastically with the Marlins this season.
Miami hopes he’ll be healthy to perform against the Phillies in the NL Wild Card. They’ll have to face Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola in the series’ first two games. There won’t be a third game if the Phillies win both games with their aces.
The Marlins also haven’t been the most consistent offense this season. Arraez must set the table up for power sluggers like Jake Burger.
Either way, the Marlins won’t be favorites to win the NL Wild Card series against the Phillies. Most analysts would be shocked to see Miami pull off an upset. But these two teams are familiar with one another. You never know what will happen.
What’s With Kyle Schwarber?
Kyle Schwarber is one of the best sluggers in baseball. But when you dive deeper into Schwarber, he’s done nothing but hit home runs.
It’s super weird.
Schwarber finished the season with 47 home runs and 104 RBIs. He was second in the MLB in home runs and 11th in RBIs. He also hit a .817 OPS, which was 43rd best.
However, his batting average was just .197. Of all qualified hitters, that’s 147th in the MLB.
He essentially hit a home run or didn’t get on base.
Schwarber had 115 hits in the regular season. Forty-seven of those hits were home runs. He also had just 108 runs on the season. But 47 of those runs were from his home runs.
He struck out 215 times, the most he’s ever struck out in his career. He also finished with a .07 WAR, the worst season since 2020 with the Cubs. But that was a 59-game-shortened season, where he hit .188.
Schwarber is a liability in the field. But somehow, he’s clutch when it comes to hitting bombs.
Early Odds: Run Line Philadelphia -1.5 +130 ML Philadelphia -165, O/U 7.5 -110/-110
⚾ Game 1 ⚾
Tuesday, 9:40 p.m. ET
Jesus Luzardo vs. Zack Wheeler
Jesus Luzardo Can Deal
The Marlins vs Phillies odds might favor Philadelphia, but the Marlins are throwing Jesus Luzardo on the mound for the first game. They’ve got potential.
Luzardo finished with a 10-9 record this season. The left-handed thrower added 171.1 innings and finished with a 3.73 ERA in the regular season. He struck out 27.7% of batters and kept walks down to 7.6% this season.
The lefty got 15% of swinging strikes but induced just 43.6% of ground balls.
Still, Luzardo allowed no runs in three of six games through his last six games. He’s also thrown at least five innings in his previous six starts.
He allowed a higher OPS and slugging percentage this season than last year. He also gave up a wOBA of .313, a bit below average.
He’ll take on a Phillies lineup that has scored 130 more runs than the Marlins this season. However, a lot of the power and talent from the Phillies is via the left-side.
Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh are all left-handed sluggers. They’ve had success against lefties this season, but it’s still not the ideal matchup.
If Luzardo is able to get past Trea Turner and Nick Castellanos, he’ll have a quality outing. He’s a big strikeout pitcher and will earn plenty against the Phillies.
For example, Kyle Schwarber is an MLB leaders 2023 in strikeouts. Nick Castellanos was fifth on the list in strikeouts.
No Consistency For Marlins
The Marlins offense had a lot of new contributors from the season’s first to the second half.
In the first half of the season, Garrett Cooper, Jean Segura, Jon Berti, Yuli Gurriel, Joey Wendle, Garrett Hampson, and Luis Arraez were Miami’s key contributors offensively.
In the second half, it’s been Jon Berti, Jake Burger, Josh Bell, Luis Arraez, and Garrett Hampson.
Off the bat, you’ve got to give credit to the Marlins. Two of their top five hitters were added at the MLB Trade Deadline.
But those five bats must carry the Marlins against Zack Wheeler in Game 1.
Wheeler finished with a 13-6 record. He also had a 3.61 ERA with 212 strikeouts and a 1.08 WHIP.
His 212 strikeouts were 9th in the MLB, and his 1.08 WHIP was 8th in the MLB.
That amounted to 26.9% of strikeouts this season. He also held teams to 5% walks this year. His swinging strike percentage was 14.7%, but he only earned 42% of ground balls.
His season probably wasn’t as good as the last two seasons. But he’s an ace pitcher who could carry the Phillies to another World Series this season. He typically limits damage and doesn’t allow a high rate of home runs. That’s what you want from your ace.
With that said, the Marlins vs Phillies odds favor the Phillies in this game. But we don’t think the MLB betting lines are on point with the total. Neither team’s offense will have much success in Game 1 of this series. We advise you to take the Under 7.5.