NLWC: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers
D’Backs Finished 2023 With 0.27 Units of Profit, Brewers +11.78
The first day of the 2023 Major League Baseball postseason continues in the desert when the Arizona Diamondbacks (92-70) start their National League Wild Card series at the Milwaukee Brewers (92-70). The Snakes will send Brandon Pfaadt (3-9, 5.72) to the hill against Corbin Burnes (10-8, 3.39) for the Brew Crew.
Milwaukee has opened a -190 home favorite with a total of 7.5 (-115 over). First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 ET / 4:08 PT and can be seen on ESPN2. Let’s start our Diamondbacks vs Brewers preview by looking at each from a betting perspective.
Diamondbacks Look To Continue Success Against Brewers
If the season series is an indication of how this series will go, Arizona can feel good about themselves after winning four of six regular-season meetings by a combined score of 30-19. It was the second straight year that the Snakes got the best of the Brewers after winning 4 of 7 in 2022.
That hasn’t always been the case. Prior to 2022, Milwaukee beat the Diamondbacks 16 of 20 games. Torey Lovullo’s team has had more success at home head-to-head, winning five of their last seven meetings, but just 3-3 in their last six at American Family Field. MLB team stats show Arizona as the league’s top defensive team with just 56 errors and second in the league with 166 stolen bases which makes up some for their lack of power in the line-up.
It’s peculiar to have Pfaadt start game one, but the rotation didn’t set up to have Zac Gallen pitch until game two. Pfaadt owns a 4.14 era since August while not allowing a run in three of his last eight appearances, but will he be able to continue that trend with this being the rookie’s first postseason appearance?
The Diamondbacks are +4.21 units won as an underdog and +6.26 units as a road dog. We continue our Diamondbacks vs Brewers preview by turning our attention to the Brewers.
Things Have Changed
Many who favor the Milwaukee Brewers in this series will argue that the Diamondbacks didn’t face the Brewers best, making the season series moot. Arizona has yet to face starters, Brandon Woodruff (Woodruff is out for this series) and Freddy Peralta, and their opening game lineup will look much different than it did when they last met in June.
Milwaukee doesn’t have many among the MLB stat leaders on offense, but pitching is different. The Brewers finished the season with a 3.73 era, tops in the league, and second with a 1.19 team WHIP. Milwaukee is 18-14 when Burnes starts but that has not been good enough to produce a profit (2.25 units). In his career, the righty is 64-42 (-1.38 units), 1-0 in the postseason with a 1.20 era in 15 innings.
We conclude our Diamondbacks vs Brewers preview with our official selection.
Diamondbacks Bite First
The betting public has made their feelings known early with the opening number of -190 bet down to -185 and less in some spots with 59% of the early money coming in on the Diamondbacks. This move is fueled by professional money with 72% of the tickets favoring Milwaukee.
We’re guessing that this number will stay where it is because large money usually strikes early as is the case here. Our worry with the Diamondbacks is that they have not been very good against the better teams in the league with a 37-47 record against teams .500 or better, but a closer look shows that they have produced a small profit against teams playing over .560 ball (0.66 units) and 3.35 units won as an underdog.
We’re not going to go against what we’ve seen over the past few years, take the plus-money Snakes in game one. That does it for our Diamondbacks vs Brewers preview, we wish you all the best this postseason.
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