Padres vs Mariners Betting Odds: San Diego Creeping Up The NL Wild Card Standings

Padres Look to Build Momentum Against Seattle in Two-Game Series

August 8, 2023 100 4 minutes readMLB Picks & Parlays

Padres vs Mariners Betting Odds: San Diego Creeping Up The NL Wild Card Standings — Denis Poroy/Getty Images/AFP

San Diego Continues To Rise in The NL Standings
San Diego Will Escape George Kirby

The San Diego Padres are going for it. After a significant spending spree in the offseason, the Padres were expected to be in contention for the World Series this year.

So far, that hasn’t been the case. The Padres are three games below .500 and 3.5 out of the last NL Wild Card spot.

With plenty of baseball left, the Padres still have a real chance at making the MLB Playoffs. They’ve got the Seattle Mariners next on their MLB schedule. And although the Mariners are 2.5 games out of the final Wild Card in the West, Seattle sold a little bit at the MLB trade deadline.

The Mariners weren’t super confident with their team at the deadline. However, the Mariners have gone 8-2 in their last ten games and are also legitimate contenders for a playoff spot. Nobody expected this.

Therefore, this interleague matchup is enormous for both teams.

Let’s look at the Padres vs Mariners betting odds for the two-game interleague matchup.

San Diego Continues to Rise in NL Standings

It hasn’t been the season that the Padres expected to have this season. They’re 55-58 but only 3.5 games out of the final NL Wild Card spot. This is because the Reds, Diamondbacks, and Marlins have each won no more than three games in their last ten.

On the other hand, the Padres have gone 6-4 in their last ten games. After the Padres made some deals at the deadline, fans mocked the Padres for being delusional. But it’s only the middle of August, and the Padres are less than four games out of a Wild Card spot.

If San Diego gets hot, they can beat anyone. The starting lineup includes stars like Fernando Tatis, Xander Bogaerts, Juan Soto, and Manny Machado. Ha-Seong Kim has also been electric offensively, with the occasional pop from Gary Sanchez and Jake Cronenworth. No team wants to face that lineup in the playoffs.

San Diego Will Escape George Kirby

In this series, the Padres will only play two games on the road against the Mariners. That means that they’ll escape George Kirby, who has been one of the best pitchers in the MLB this season.

Kirby has earned ten wins while allowing a 3.32 ERA with a WHIP of 1.05. He’s allowed one run or fewer in five of his last seven starts and has earned at least seven strikeouts in three of his previous four games.

The right-hander has struck out 31% of batters in the last month and has walked just 3.5% in the previous month. On the season, he’s held batters to a .146 ISO and wOBA of .289 and has earned 45% of grounders.

The Padres get to escape Kirby but still face some difficult pitching between Logan Gilbert and Bryan Woo.

Below are the probable pitchers and Padres vs Mariners betting odds for the two-game series.

Game 1

Nick Martinez vs. Logan Gilbert
Tuesday, 9:40 p.m. ET

Nick Martinez will get the start for the first game against the Mariners. He’s taking over for Joe Musgrove, who just landed on the injured list last week. Martinez has only thrown an average of 25.85 pitches per appearance this season. Therefore, it’s unlikely that Martinez goes very deep in this start.

However, Martinez has held teams to a .129 ISO and wOBA of .249 over the last month. He’s also struck out 32.8% of batters and has walked only 4.5%. Martinez has been good, but if he’s asked to throw longer, his MLB player stats will likely dip as a starter.

Martinez will face Logan Gilbert of the Mariners. Gilbert is a right-handed pitcher that has seen his strikeout rate dip. Gilbert has struck out 23.9% of batters this season but only 21% in the last month. He’s also allowed a .188 ISO and wOBA of .334 to his previous 124 batters. Gilbert has struggled more against lefties. Therefore, bats like Juan Soto and Jake Cronenworth have plenty of potential against Gilbert.

As a lineup, the Padres are getting plenty of offense against righties in the last month. San Diego’s got six batters in the projected lineup that have hit an ISO of .169 or better against righties in the previous 30 days. The lineup has also worked 10.5% of walks against righties in the last month.

However, despite those MLB stats, the Mariners will be -125 favorites against the Padres in Game 1. Meanwhile, the total is 8, with the Under juiced to -118/-102. Although the Padres will have a bullpen game, San Diego’s lineup is still much better. I’d back the Padres as underdogs.

Game 2

Yu Darvish vs. Bryan Woo
Wednesday, 9:40 p.m. ET

The Padres vs Mariners betting odds for the second game should have San Diego as the favorite. Yu Darvish might have a 4.41 ERA this season, but he’s earned over 26% of strikeouts in the last month. He’s also held teams to a .310 wOBA over the previous month, which is a better number than his .320 wOBA on the season. Darvish limits fly balls at a high rate and has dominated right-handed hitters in the last 30 days.

Darvish will face Bryan Woo of the Mariners. Woo is a right-handed pitcher, getting clobbered by lefties. Woo has allowed a .348 ISO and wOBA of .502 to his last 54 lefties. Even on the season, he’s given up a .355 ISO and wOBA of .495. It’s a significant trend for Woo.

Again, the lefties in the Padres lineup should have a field day against Woo.

Juan Soto’s one to watch in this series. I’d be on the Padres in both games.