Reds vs Pirates Odds: What Happened to Cincinnati?

The fun has ended in Cincinnati. The Reds are just 60-57 and have fallen from the top spot in the NL Central. The Major League Baseball standings have taken a complete nose dive since the MLB Trade Deadline. The young prospects and rookies dominated for as long as they could. But the Reds are finally starting to fall apart.

Cincinnati has a negative run differential and no starting pitching. That will change eventually, with Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo expected to return before the season ends. But at this point, it might be too late.

If the playoffs ended today, the Reds wouldn’t be in it.

Over the weekend, the Reds will face the Pittsburgh Pirates in a three-game series. The Pirates have had their ups and downs throughout the season. But Pittsburgh is undoubtedly not going to make the postseason this year.

If the Reds want to stick around in the NL Central and Wild Card races, they must win this series against the Pirates.

Here are the Reds vs Pirates odds for the three-game series in Pittsburgh.

Are The Reds Cooked?

The Reds were becoming America’s team. Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Andrew Abbott, and Spencer Steer gave Cincinnati fans hope this season.

The team even started selling out games in the first half of the season during a hot stretch.

But the Reds are cold right now. They’ve lost eight of their last nine games heading into Pittsburgh. The Reds’ bullpen continues to blow games, and the rookies aren’t earning those big hits like they did earlier this season.

Meanwhile, using Cincinnati’s usual lineup, the Reds have hit a .268 wOBA against righties over the last month. The team has also struck out over 28% of the time against righties.

The Reds face three more righties when they visit Pittsburgh over the weekend.

Will Pittsburgh Ever Compete?

I know I picked on the Reds. However, the Pirates haven’t been in a playoff conversation since 2018. They’ve improved since 2021 and 2022 and will likely win over 62 games this season. But for a team constantly at the bottom of the standings, the Pirates can never find long-term prospects that fit with the organization.

The Pirates drafted first overall in this year’s MLB Draft and took Paul Skenes, a left-handed pitcher, out of LSU. Skenes is one of the most skilled pitchers to come out of college.

Pittsburgh needs to make Skenes happy and develop him quickly. Once Skenes performs high, the Pirates must buy talent and help the younger players. It’s hard to be competitive when you don’t buy players.

Adding a college pitcher like Skenes proved that Pittsburgh would pull the trigger when the time came.

Pittsburgh won’t compete this year. But eventually, in a few years, the Pirates should have a solid roster that is watchable.

Let’s look at the Reds vs Pirates odds for the three-game weekend series between NL Central teams.

Game 1

Andrew Abbott vs. Johan Oviedo
Friday, 7:05 p.m. ET

Andrew Abbott is expected to take the first game of the series for the Reds. Abbott is a left-handed pitcher who hasn’t had much success against right-handed batters. He’s allowed a.181 ISO and wOBA of .335 over the last month and rarely gets ground balls. Abbott is better against lefties, but he’ll mainly face righties in the Pittsburgh order.

Meanwhile, with their projected lineup, the Pirates have hit a .046 ISO and wOBA of .250 against lefties over the last month. Not a single batter has hit consistent power or extra-base hits against lefties in the previous month. The team has also struck out 27% of the time against lefties in the last 30 days.

The Reds will face Johan Oviedo, who has held teams to a .137 ISO and wOBA of .250 against his last 117 batters. Oviedo has thrown nearly 95 pitches per start over the previous month and has limited fly balls and line drives to 22.2% of the time.

Oviedo has secretly been excellent recently.

I agree with the MLB odds for the Pirates-Reds in Game 1. The Reds are -130 with Abbott on the mound, totaling 8.5. The Reds vs Pirates odds for the Over are juiced to -120. However, I’d bet the Under at +100.

Game 2

Brandon Williamson vs. Osvaldo Bido
Saturday, 7:05 p.m. ET

Cincinnati will throw another lefty in Game 2 of the series. Brandon Williamson has been the opposite of Abbott. He’s earned over 30% of strikeouts against righties and has limited walks to 5.5%. Like Abbott, Williamson will likely face more righties than lefties in the Pittsburgh lineup.

However, I should note that Williamson has allowed nearly 35% of fly balls and has induced only 31% of ground balls over the last month. If the Pirates can put the ball in play, they’ll find some success. But that’s a big if.

On the other hand, the Reds will face Osvaldo Bido in Game 2. Bido’s only thrown 57.5 pitches per start over the last month. Therefore, the Reds’ MLB schedule is getting easier over the weekend. Bido has allowed a .219 ISO and wOBA of .427 to his previous 36 lefties. He’s been poor against lefties all season. Therefore, bats like Elly De La Cruz, Joey Votto, and other lefties should have success against Bido in this one.

Game 3

Luke Weaver vs. Mitch Keller
Sunday, 1:35 p.m. ET

Although Luke Weaver had a better start in his last appearance, he’s still allowing a .273 ISO and wOBA of .397 to his previous 76 batters. On the season, he’s given up a .265 ISO and wOBA of .401 and has struggled against both sides of the plate.

The Reds’ pitching is one of the many reasons why the Reds have struggled to win games recently. This year, he’s been a disaster, allowing nearly 35% of line drives in the last month.

However, the biggest disaster is the first-half and second-half difference for Mitch Keller. Keller will pitch in Game 3 of the series for the Pirates. He’s a right-handed pitcher that has struck out over 25% of batters this season.

But in the last month, he’s only struck out 19.6% of batters and allowed a .452 ISO and wOBA of .533 to his previous 70 lefties. Again, those Reds lefties should have some hard hits against Keller, despite their recent struggles against right-handed pitching.

Any good Major League hitter can hit atrocious pitching. That’s been apparent all year long.

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