Twins vs Braves Preview: Strong Pitching Matchups in Series
Division Leaders Battle it Out in Atlanta
The Twins vs Braves preview shows the three-game series begins with a couple of excellent pitching matchups. But it ends with a lackluster one. The highlight should be Monday’s pitching matchup between Minnesota’s Sonny Gray and Spencer Strider.
Tuesday’s game looks to be more of the same, with Joe Ryan and Bryce Elder scheduled to start. The solid pitching matchups come to an end on Wednesday. The Twins are expected to start Kenta Maeda against AJ Smith-Shawver.
The Twins are leading the AL Central. But not because they’re that good. It’s more a matter of everybody else being below .500. The Minnesota Twins standings show the team 40-39, although its expected win-loss record is 43-36 based on a run differential of +34. The Twins are 17-20 on the road this season.
Minnesota isn’t hitting the ball that well, ranking No. 24 in team batting average and No. 17 in runs scored. But Minnesota is No. 3 in team ERA and good pitching usually equals a few more victories.
Atlanta has the second-best record in baseball, going 50-27. The Braves are No. 2 in team batting average and No. 3 in runs scored. The pitching staff has also carried its weight, with Atlanta No. 9 in team ERA. Atlanta’s 25 saves are tied for No. 6 in baseball.
The Braves have played a little better on the road than at home. But Atlanta is winning wherever it plays. The Braves are 24-15 at home and 26-12 on the road. Its run differential of +107 is the third best in MLB.
Monday’s Game
The Twins vs Braves preview notes the Major League Baseball odds have Atlanta -215 over the Twins. The total is 8.5-under (-120). Minnesota’s Gray has pitched well this season, going 4-1 with a 2.56 ERA. The Twins are 7-3 in the games he’s started, allowing 2.8 runs per contest. Minnesota is 3-2 in his road starts.
Strider is leading the league in strikeouts, with 136 in just 84 2/3 innings. He brings an 8-2 record into the game with a 3.92 ERA. He has allowed 12 home runs, but hitters have to make contact first. Atlanta is 13-2 when he starts, allowing 4.33 runs per game. But the Braves are scoring 6.8 runs in the games he’s started. Gray, for comparison, gets 3.8 runs of support on average. The under looks to be the way to go in this one.
Tuesday’s Game
Ryan and Elder don’t get the publicity of Gray and Strider, but they’re quietly having strong seasons. Ryan is 8-4 with a 2.98 ERA and Elder has gone 5-1 with an ERA of 2.40. Minnesota is 9-6 in the games Ryan has started, allowing 3.2 runs per game. The Twins average 5.67 runs for Ryan, having scored nine of more runs in five of his 15 starts. Minnesota is 10-5 in totals when he starts.
The Braves are 11-4 with Elder on the hill and 5-10 in totals when he pitches. Atlanta is allowing 3.07 runs per game when Elder throws and scoring 4.93 runs. There could be a little value on Minnesota depending on the line, but the Twins are just 9-15 as an underdog.
Wednesday’s Game
The Twins vs Braves preview notes Maeda hasn’t pitched well this season, going 1-4 with a 6.86 ERA. Minnesota is 1-4 when he starts. He looked good last game out, coming back from the injured list to throw five scoreless innings against Detroit. He’s pitched well twice this season and had three ugly outings.
Smith-Shawver’s last two starts haven’t been pretty. He’s pitched nine innings, allowed five home runs and eight earned runs. His first two trips to the mound were pretty decent, so his stats don’t look that bad. The Braves are 2-1 in the games he’s started.
This is probably the toughest game of the three to try and get a read on. The first two games feature pitchers who have established themselves as being pretty consistent. Here, it’s difficult to tell what to expect from either starting pitcher. If the total is 9 or lower, the over could be worth a look on the basis that at least one of the two starters should labor a little bit.
Follow us on Twitter
