Rookie of the Year Odds Update: Jung & Carroll Lead In AL and NL
AL Much More Closely Contested
As we race toward July 4th, and the midpoint of the 2023 MLB season, many season-long award races are starting to really take shape. Whether it’s MVP, or Cy Young, or Rookie of the Year, the legitimate contenders have (mostly) established themselves and all that’s left is for them to jockey for position among each other. This is definitely demonstrated by the 2023 MLB Rookie of the Year odds, as three prime candidates have separated themselves from the field in the AL and one overwhelming favorite has established himself in the NL.
In the AL, the Texas Rangers‘ Josh Jung — who has been a big reason for Texas’ surprise start — is currently leading the field but has a few other standout position players right behind him (with some starting pitchers further back). In the NL, it looks like the Arizona Diamondbacks‘ Corbin Carroll’s race to lose as he has raced away from all the other NL rookies.
Still, there’s plenty of time left in the season for injuries, underperformance or a late breakout to change the MLB spreads and shake up the respective Rookie of the Year races in both leagues. Let’s take a deeper look at where the AL and NL currently stand.
AL
At +175, Jung is currently the slight favorite in the 2023 MLB Rookie of the Year odds ahead of outfielder Masataka Yoshida of the Boston Red Sox — as a Japanese import, he’s a 29-year-old rookie — at +235 and the Baltimore Orioles‘ Gunnar Henderson at +500.
Beyond those three guys, the pickings get pretty slim with Hunter Brown (+1200), Bryce Miller (+3000), Taj Bradley (+3500) and Logan Allen (+3500) all having good yet unspectacular seasons on the mound.
It’s a pretty good bet that one of the top-three guys, all position players, will end up with the award, particularly when you take into account that only one primary pitcher (excluding Shohei Ohtani) has won the ROY in either league since 2016 and that was Milwaukee Brewers‘ reliever Devin Williams in the shortened 2020 season. It’s just hard for a pitcher, whether a starter or reliever, to garner the kind of recognition that everyday players get.
While Yoshida has actually been slightly better on offense than Jung (129 OPS+ compared to a 124 OPS+), Jung’s power (15 home runs compared to Yoshida’s 8) and defense (he’s been a plus defender at 3rd base while Yoshida hasn’t graded out well in left field) should give him the edge — at least for now. Jung is also a middle-of-the-order bat on a division leader with the second-best record in the AL.
Henderson has been a key bat for the upstart Orioles to build on his impressive debut cameo in 2020, and has hit 11 home runs, but he hasn’t been as big a run producer as Jung — nor as good of a defender — which works against him. If Baltimore continues to win in the second half of the season against a tough Major League Baseball schedule centered around the AL East, then maybe Henderson could leapfrog Yoshida and Jung but it’s an uphill climb.
As for the pitchers, Hunter Brown has helped stabilized an Astros rotation beset by injuries while Bryce Miller has been a nice find for the Mariners. Taj Bradley has posted some eye-popping strikeout numbers but the overall consistency hasn’t been there.
Logan Allen has been solid for Cleveland but, like most young starters, has struggled with stringing multiple good starts together. None of them have been as reliable as the likes of Jung, Yoshida and Henderson.
NL
Considering that he’s currently -550 to be the NL Rookie of the Year, it feels like only a major injury or prolonged slump could prevent Corbin Carroll from taking home some hardware at the end of the season. He’s slashing .298/.379/.576 with 16 home runs, 40 RBIs and 22 stolen bases. Carroll — the best player on the NL West-leading Diamondbacks — is leading the NL in slugging percentage and OPS+ (160) and is leading all of baseball in bWAR (3.8).
Elly De La Cruz (+800) and Francisco Álvarez (+4500) are position player rookies having nice campaigns and the Miami Marlins‘ Eury Pérez (+4500) has been close to unhittable in his first eight MLB starts, but there’s a reason the 2023 MLB Rookie of the Year odds are so one-sided in Carroll’s favor.
It’s really difficult to imagine someone putting up those kinds of stats, especially on a team outperforming expectations as much as the Diamondbacks have, and not being the top rookie when things are said and done.
It isn’t just because of a lack of solid rookies in the NL — even the Mets‘ Kodai Senga is just +6000 despite posting a 3.53 ERA and, arguably, being New York’s best starter so far — either. It’s just like Carroll has immediately vaulted himself into the MVP race and is currently second behind Ronald Acuña Jr. in the MVP odds. Right now, Carroll controls his own destiny so it’ll be up to him whether he winds up winning or not.
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