NBA Trends Lean Towards Sacramento Despite Odds
Sacramento is the 4.5-point underdog heading to Phoenix this Tuesday. However, given the recent NBA trends, Sacramento looks more appealing to bet on. The Kings are 4-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games, while Phoenix has one of the worst cover rates at home: 7-15-0 (31.8%). With no significant injuries on each side, Sacramento may be the right side based on the Kings vs Suns NBA odds.
Kings Have Been the Model of Profitability
Is it too obvious we’re touting the Kings as road underdogs here? Sacramento is 6-2 against NBA spreads as one this season and 21-10 ATS if we go back to 2022-23. And while the Kings got a lot done via their offense, their defense has carried this team on the road. Sacramento is eighth in the NBA in defensive rating (113.4) when playing on the road.
Sacramento has held five of the last six hosts to 112 points or fewer. The only team that scored more than that is Milwaukee, which has averaged 125 points per game. The Kings are 9-3 when it holds opponents to 114 points or fewer as a visitor. That’s how much it averages.
But Sacramento has also significantly benefited from not having too many NBA injuries. Presently, only Keegan Murray is on its injury list. But its main stars, mainly center Domantas Sabonis, have been healthy. He’s missed just three games going back to last season.
The three-time All-Star is also among the NBA rebound leaders. His 1,467 total rebounds are the most over these past two seasons. He’s consistently posted double-doubles and should have short odds to post another one in this matchup.
Speaking of injuries, the Suns’ “Big Three” is healthy in this matchup. Since Bradley Beal returned to the lineup nine games ago, Phoenix is 6-3 straight-up but only 3-6 ATS.
The Suns are just 10-17-1 ATS as a favorite this season. Facing a wily underdog like Sacramento, it’s tough to bet on this team, especially with the Kings having won and covered in four of their last five meetings.
Suns Overestimated Just Like the Totals
Thanks to their popularity, the books will keep pushing Phoenix as a favorite. The same goes for their scoring potential, as the whopping total of 243 is by the Kings vs Suns NBA odds.
The Suns average over 116 points at home, while the Kings average nearly 115 on the road. Neither gives up more than 115 points, either. And while Sacramento is ranked 11th in pace, Phoenix is one of the slower NBA teams at 26th. On top of that, Phoenix’s totals have gone under in all three games it had a total of 240+.
However, Phoenix has seen a bit of an increase in its scoring since Beal rejoined the team. In their last nine games, the Suns have averaged nearly 119 points per game. They scored 127 points in each of their previous two games, though both came against the losing sides of Portland and the Lakers.
“Bradley Beal is one of the best players in the world,” Kevin Durant said after Beal scored a season-high 37 points against the Lakers. “To see an opportunity to see that close up and see a guy every day and see who he truly is as a player and then you come out there and get moments like that, that’s always fun. I enjoy seeing my teammates cook like that.”
Beal and the Suns better “cook” against Sacramento because 244 points is a lot to cover for ‘over’ bettors.
Both teams could hit 120+ points despite what their average stats suggest. Still, the bookies are making it challenging for giddy fans on the Kings vs Suns NBA odds.