NBA Draft: Head to Head Odds

Digesting the NBA Draft Head-to-Head Odds

The NBA Draft is only a few days away, and while the top picks are seemingly cemented, there’s still plenty of debate throughout the rest of the lottery. Let’s look at the NBA Draft Odds and see what the markets say on some comparisons.

For much of the calendar year, it was assumed that Amen and Ausar Thompson would be competing with each other for a top-5 spot on draft night, but it seems unanimous that there’s a clear-cut preferred option among teams in position to draft the twin’s brothers.

Amen Thompson is -325 to be drafted ahead of his brother, with Ausar Thompson currently priced at +250. The duo both featured in the Overtime Elite league, and while they possess similar traits, it’s the perceived upside in Amen’s shooting form that has propelled him to firm favoritism over his brother.

The Houston Rockets currently have the 4th overall pick in the NBA rankings, and with the top-3 all but cemented, it seems that this is where Amen Thompson is most likely to land. The team needs wing talent, and the upside that Thompson gives them makes this selection somewhat of a no-brainer.

Even if the Rockets choose to go with someone like Cam Whitmore to fill that role, Amen Thompson again has the higher upside for a team like the Detroit Pistons (5th overall pick) to use on him. Now, -325 could be a better price to lay in most situations, but in an NBA Draft Odds scenario where it’s clear that there’s an obvious consensus on the better player, this represents great value in the marketplace.

The fact that both players share the same position also removes the possibility of the underdog jumping up based on a team’s needs.

How Far Will Ausar Slip?

Ausar Thompson’s stock continues to drop as we edge closer to draft night, and it’s set up an interesting head-to-head market with Houston’s Jarace Walker.

Both players are -115 to win this head-to-head matchup, and most mock drafts are split on who will go first.

Walker’s defensive identity makes him a big hit with many NBA scouts. His appeal as a combo forward that can make an immediate impact is an appetizing deal for many NBA scouts, and his appeal as a combo forward that can make an immediate impact is an appetizing deal for many teams in that 6-10 range on draft night.

Ausar Thompson is still the higher-upside player, and that makes the -115 on him very appealing. A team like Orlando seems more likely to gamble on his upside with what they have on their roster, and if they do, in fact, go in this direction, that should be enough to cash the ticket as I don’t see a path where Walker goes any higher than that.

However, the best value on the board is on Anthony Black (-190) in his head-to-head matchup with Taylor Hendricks (+155).

Black is a true point guard in every sense of the word; his playmaking and passing make him a perfect fit for a team looking for a table-setter on their roster. The Washington Wizards were set to be heavily invested in Black at No. 8, but there’s growing consensus that he won’t be available that late.

Hendricks is a true 3-and-D prototype that can play the forward position effectively, but despite shooting up the mock draft boards lately, the price on him to go before Black seems way short.

Black’s physique and reliability are also a big plus at the guard position. The Magic might be willing to take a swing on his fit with their roster if they believe Markelle Fultz will remain a liability on the NBA injury report long-term.

More than happy to lay the price on Black in this matchup and expect that to be one of the more comfortable draft night bets you will make.

Best of the Rest

Keyonte George (+135) is matched up with Jordan Hawkins (-165), and both are expected to be late first-round picks.

George is probably the best underdog player in the marketplace, given how much he impressed scouts at the NBA Draft Combine in Chicago.

While Hawkins might be the best shooter in the class, his limited skillset as a guard outside of his shooting isn’t likely to attract much attention from teams drafting around 20-30.

Rayan Rupert (-170) is listed head-to-head with Gregory Jackson (+140), with both players also hoping to be picked up in the late first round.

Rupert played professionally in Australia’s NBL, and given the success and impact that previous NBL prospects have had, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a team take a gamble on his raw talents.

Meanwhile, Jackson is coming off a disappointing season at South Carolina, and as we edge closer to draft night, it is becoming more and more possible that he slips into the second round. Laying the price with Rupert might be tough, but he does represent the better market value in this matchup.

That’s all for our NBA Draft Odds preview. Make sure to check out all the markets at BetUS ahead of this week’s NBA Draft.

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