WNBA Playoff Odds: It’s Las Vegas, New York and Everybody Else

The Las Vegas and New York Liberty, two of the WNBA’s newest “Super Teams,” look as good as advertised at the first-quarter mark of the WNBA season. While they both remain heavy title favorites, a few other familiar contenders are playing their way into the mix.

The top eight teams will make the playoffs, regardless of conference. Let’s look at the WNBA playoff odds as we try to separate the contenders from the pretenders.

Locks

Las Vegas Aces (8-1): A’ja Wilson. Kelsey Plum. Jackie Young. Chelsea Gray. The defending WNBA champions are loaded with high-end talent. No wonder they’re 8-1 and a -110 favorite to win another title. Their average margin of victory (12.2 points) is nearly double the next-closest team.

At this point, it’s title or bust for the Aces.

New York Liberty (6-2): Somehow, the Liberty have already lost two games. But don’t fret. So long as Breanna Stewart remains healthy, New York remains the biggest threat to Las Vegas, as evidenced by its +155 title odds. The two-time Finals MVP has been worth every penny, averaging 24.9 points, a league-leading 10.1 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 4.0 combined steals and blocks.

Connecticut Sun (8-2): The Sun looks as good, if not better, than when they had superstar Jonquel Jones. It’s a credit to new head coach Stephanie White and veteran forward Alyssa Thomas. Thomas has been indispensable for the Sun, ranking in a tie for first in rebounds (11.2) and second in both minutes played (36.7) and assists (7.3).

It’s no surprise Connecticut’s title odds have skyrocketed from +2600 to +1400.

Washington Mystics (5-3): At +1200, Washington owns the best title odds outside the two “Super Teams.” Why? Look no further than Elena Delle Donne, who finally seems healthy again after dealing with serious back issues. She’s playing 32.3 minutes per game, her most since 2016 (33.1).

In the Mix

Dallas Wings (5-4): The Wings may have the WNBA’s best young duo in Arike Ogunbowale and Satou Sabally. Natasha Howard is quite good, too. They sure could use more talent around them, though, so they invested first-round picks in Maddy Siegrist and Lou Lopez Senechal, both standout shooters in college.

Dallas is still probably another year or two away from serious contention, but if you’re looking for a longshot play, the Wings may be worth a sprinkle at +4000 to win the title.

Chicago Sky (5-5): The Sky should — that’s right, should — sneak into the postseason. They don’t seem to miss forward Candace Parker, who, at age 37, maybe finally slowing down. She’s averaging a career-low 8.1 points for Las Vegas. With +4000 title odds, their ceiling’s likely limited.

Los Angeles Sparks (4-4): Two-time Coach of the Year Curt Miller has seemingly stabilized this once proud franchise. How far can they go? That may be up to star forward Nneka Ogwumike, who leads Los Angeles in points (21.3) and rebounds (9.7), even in her 12th season. Guard Jordin Canada, averaging a league-best 2.6 steals, has also stepped up.

They’re a title longshot at +5000.

Atlanta Dream (2-5): Despite being three games under .500, Atlanta’s WNBA playoff odds are optimistic. The Dream is currently in the eighth and final spot, albeit with plenty of time to spare. If reigning Rookie of the Year Rhyne Howard continues to emerge as a franchise player, the Dream should be in good shape come September.

Phoenix Mercury (2-5): The Mercury remains one of the most fascinating teams on the WNBA schedule because of Brittney Griner. Are they any good, though? Their average point differential (minus-5.8) is the second-worst in the league, which obviously could be better.

They’ll need Diana Taurasi to stay healthy to remain in the mix and sneak into the playoff field. At 41 years old, that’s no guarantee.

Maybe Next Year

Indiana Fever (2-6): Drafting former South Carolina star Aliyah Boston was a strong start, but Indiana still has a ways to go in its rebuild. The Fever could benefit by playing better at home (0-3).

Minnesota Lynx (2-7): Napheesa Collier is a bona fide star. Besides her, though, the Lynx don’t have much to rest their hopes. Their WNBA playoff odds are bleak with No. 2 pick Diamond Miller hurt (ankle).

Seattle Storm (1-6): Stewart left in free agency, and Sue Bird retired, forcing the Storm to say goodbye to a pair of future Hall of Famers. Sitting last in the WNBA standings, they’re feeling the effect of their absence. At +12500, they’re the second-longest title play on the board. Enough said.

For WNBA betting news, analysis, and more, visit pointspreads.com

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