NBA Playoffs Odds Preview: Nine Teams, Four Spots…
Which Bubble Teams Will Make it Into the Actual Playoffs?
Lakers Among Teams Still Outside the Playoff Picture
The 2022-23 NBA season wraps this Sunday. Nine teams have clinched a playoff spot and the rest could be fighting over the remaining positions. Among them are the 2020 NBA champions, the Los Angeles Lakers. The newly healthy Lakers fell short to the Clippers and could be forced to play in the Play-in Tournament. Regardless, the 2023 NBA playoffs odds heavily favor them to make it into the playoffs. But what about the rest?
The Wild West: Seeds 5-10 All Up in the Air
One look at the Western Conference playoff bracket can make most fans’ brains hurt. The fifth-seed Clippers to the 10th-seed Thunder are separated by just four games. That means one win or loss can shift the standings altogether. However, the NBA playoffs odds don’t value all these teams the same.
In fact, the Clippers and Warriors are off the board as it is heavily expected they will make it in. That leaves the four teams who are most likely meeting in the play-in tournament:
| Teams | Date | Records |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Lakers | currently 7th | 41-39 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | currently 8th | 41-39 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | currently 9th | 40-40 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | currently 10th | 38-42 |
Of these teams, the Lakers are widely expected to qualify for the playoffs at -1800. The easiest path for the Lakers is to stay in seventh or eighth and win just one game to make the playoffs.
The ninth and 10th seeds, Minnesota and Oklahoma City will need to win two play-in games to make it in. The Wolves are -125 to make the playoffs while the Thunder, who are likely meeting the Lakers in the tournament (if they can stay in it), are the longshots to qualify at -1800.
The Pelicans are -135 to return to the playoffs. They had a memorable run last season as they won two Play-In Tournament games as the ninth seed and pushed the top-seeded Suns to six games.
But New Orleans will have to stay ahead of Minnesota and Oklahoma City to avoid having to do that. They face the former as their final opponent on their NBA games schedule. This could be a preview of the tournament.
What About Dallas?
Conspicuously absent from the betting lines are the Mavericks. Dallas is tied with OKC with a 38-42 record but the latter has the tiebreaker. Still, Dallas could edge the Thunder by finishing with a better record if they win both games and the Thunder just win one or none.
The Mavs have an easier schedule with San Antonio and Chicago while the Thunder must face Memphis, currently the second-seed, and Utah. Should Dallas bump out OKC for the final spot, expect it to be a popular underdog to back with the superstar duo of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving putting up ridiculous NBA player stats.
Eastern Promises: Miami and Atlanta Favored to Return
The Eastern Conference has a more straightforward playoff picture. The Heat and Hawks are the favorites to return to the playoffs at -800 and -260, respectively.
Miami is currently in the seventh seed but could still move up to the sixth seed if it finishes with a better record than Brooklyn. The odds of that are low but Miami has an extra game versus Washington. They both face Philadelphia and Orlando.
As for Atlanta, the Hawks could face Miami again. But this time, it will be in the Play-In Tournament should these current NBA standings hold. The Hawks, like the Pelicans, advanced to the playoffs by winning two play-in games as a ninth-seed. This time, Atlanta needs to win just one game hence why they have better NBA playoff odds than Toronto (+170) and Chicago (+550).
The Raptors could still swap spots with the Hawks, technically. Though this is unlikely since Toronto needs to win both of their games while Atlanta needs to lose both.
They both have tough opponents with each facing Boston and Toronto meeting Milwaukee and Atlanta taking on Philadelphia.Still, if the standings stay as they are, Toronto needs to beat Chicago and then beat the loser of Miami/Brooklyn and Atlanta.
Chicago needs to do the same but it will not have a home court advantage in any game. Still, the Bulls do have Patrick Beverley.
The mercurial guard has helped nearly every team he’s been on to the playoffs, including Minnesota as a play-in team last season. Chicago is 12-9 with the fourth-best defensive rating (111.4) since he debuted with the team on February 24. They could just be the first 10th-seed to make the playoffs.
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