When Will Overs Start Cashing Again in the NBA?
Scoring Has Been Way Down Since The All-Star Break
One of the dominant questions surrounding the NBA over the past few seasons has been whether scoring is out-of-control and if it can be reined in. This discussion seemed to come to a head at this year’s All-Star Game, which the East won 211-186 over the West in what was more of a pickup scrimmage than legitimate basketball game.
Interestingly though, since that game, the NBA over/under betting lines have been heavily tilted toward the under in direct contradiction to what recent trends have indicated.
Since the All-Star break, NBA unders are 64-28-1. Yes, it is still a relatively small sample of fewer than 100 games in total but it is a worthwhile development to look into if you like to make NBA predictions.
It’s hard to ignore a roughly 70% hit rate for the under especially after a first half of the season dominated by insane scoring outputs by individuals and teams alike. While it isn’t likely the result of defensive adjustments or anything specific from a strategic perspective, the scoring dip could lead Vegas to change how it sets over/unders for the rest of the season.
So, is this a trend that is going to stick around? If so, how can you get in on the action and take advantage? Let’s dive into the potential causes, the staying power of the scoring dip and when the routine 130+ point outputs will return.
League is Still Setting Offensive Records
To make one thing clear: the 2023-24 NBA season is still on pace to set pretty much across-the-board offensive records. Right now, NBA teams are averaging 115.1 points per game which is 0.4 points higher than the average from the 2022-23.
The last season with a higher per-game average was the 1969-70 season when there were 14 teams and a frankly ludicrous amount of free throws per game (teams averaged 33.7 free throws per game).
So, the scores and odds haven’t taken a huge hit from the recent under surge. There have been multiple 8+ game slates in the past week or so in which every single game hit the under.
A standout game in that regard was the Clippers’ 89-88 win over the Timberwolves, which went under by over 40 points (the over/under closed at 220 points). NBA games like that are almost certainly outliers and the days of games ending with each team in the 70s or 80s will not be returning any time soon.
The league-wide offensive rating (115.6), effective field goal percentage (54.7) — which factors in how threes are worth more than twos — and free throw percentage (78.3%) have never been higher than they are right now so, even with a slight dip in pace from last season, scoring is way up and seems poised to stay high.
Those factors point to the conclusion that NBA players are just getting better and better at shooting which, coupled with the realization that threes are more efficient shots than long or medium twos, has resulted in a scoring explosion.
Nothing about the NBA post-All-Star-break suggests that these shooting or analytical insights are no more. So, it might just be a blip in the NBA over/under betting lines due to a post-break hangover effect.
The Joel Embiid franchise-record 70 point game https://t.co/395so0KN0A pic.twitter.com/kaK65J0Vgv
— Collin Pryce (@Collin_Pryce) February 27, 2024
Is There Anything Sticky About This Dip?
The million-dollar question is whether the scoring reduction since the break actually will continue. Well, that’s obviously a tough one particularly if you’re looking to forecast what the playoff NBA bracket will look like when the regular season ends.
At first glance, it feels like the dip is a temporary one partially due to — as mentioned above — players still being a bit out-of-rhythm after they either went on vacation during the All-Star break or actually participated in the festivities.
There is also the issue of fatigue which can certainly take its toll on players as the dog days of the season approach.
Every team has played 60 (or more) games at this point in the season and the grind of the NBA season, as well as the nagging NBA injuries that pile up from October and are never able to fully heal, can certainly lead to players going through down periods in terms of energy and strength.
However, this is the case every season so it doesn’t make a ton of sense as to why this season would feature such a drastic run of unders with respect to the NBA over/under betting lines.
An underrated factor could be that Vegas has gone a little overboard with crazy high over point totals and that the games are finally starting to reveal those totals as being inflated. That seems to be the most likely culprit and, of course, that will work itself out once Vegas readjusts and players gear up for the stretch run.
All in all, don’t expect the under hot streak to continue for much longer. Sure, defensive intensity will pick up as the regular season winds down but that means offensive effort will too. With players more locked in, shooting percentages will creep back to where they have been all NBA season.
For NBA betting news, NBA odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
