2024 American Athletic Conference Odds: FAU Favored
No. 1 Seed USF is Fourth in the Tournament Betting Odds
The American Athletic Conference was a bit of an oddity this season. The team that ran away with the regular season title, USF, isn’t even considered one of the top three teams in the conference. The Bulls are ranked No. 5 in the AAC by the KenPom ratings, but USF finished 16-2 in conference play.
Second-place FAU was 14-4, but the Owls are the solid favorites to win the tournament. The 2024 American Athletic Conference odds have the Owls at +170, with three other teams at +500 or lower.
Florida Atlantic Owls (+170)
The Florida Atlantic Owls are the highest-rated team in the AAC by KenPom. FAU is No. 1 in the offensive efficiency ratings in conference games and No. 2 in effective field goal percentage.
The Owls don’t make a whole lot of turnovers and take care of the basketball. FAU is better at getting the ball inside than shooting 3-pointers. The Owls are shooting 75% from the foul line in conference play, which is second-best in the AAC.
FAU’s defense isn’t bad, although it’s not a team strength, either. The Owls are pretty much hit or miss defensively. FAU ranks No. 3 in 3-point defense and are best at not sending the opposition to the foul line, but also No. 11 in 2-point defense and forced turnovers.
The Owls will have to play defense and not count on Johnell Davis and Vladislav Golden to outscore the opposition.
Memphis Tigers (+440)
The Memphis Tigers are the best shooting team in the conference, ranking No. 1 in effective field goal percent and No. 1 in 2-point shooting. Memphis is No. 3 in 3-point shooting and No. 2 in offensive rebounds. The problem for the Tigers has been turnovers, where they rank last in the conference.
If the Tigers can take care of the ball and give themselves chances to shoot, they can be tough. That doesn’t happen often enough, as Memphis is a dismal 12-19 against the college basketball spreads.
The Memphis defense simply is that good. The Tigers can force some turnovers and block some shots, but that’s about it. Memphis is No. 12 in effective field goal percentage and last in the conference at preventing offensive rebounds. The 2-point defense isn’t quite as bad as the 3-point defense, although that isn’t saying a whole lot.
SMU Mustangs (+440)
The 2024 American Athletic Conference odds on the Mustangs are a little puzzling. SMU finished 11-7 in conference play, but are still at lower than odds than South Florida, which finished five games in front of it.
The Mustangs don’t shoot the ball well, but they pound the offensive boards and don’t make a lot of turnovers. SMU is No. 11 in effective field goal percentage and No. 12 on 3-pointers and foul shots.
If the Mustangs are going to make some noise in the AAC tournament, the defense will have to play big. SMU leads the conference in forced turnovers and blocked shots, but struggles in other areas. The Mustangs are No. 9 in 3-point defense and allowing offensive rebounds.
South Florida Bulls (+500)
The Bulls saw their 15-game winning streak snapped by Tulsa last game. That could have had an impact on the 2024 American Athletic Conference odds, where USF isn’t getting much respect. The Bulls won the games they needed to, however, and could possibly make it as an at-large team provided they reach the tournament finals.
A lot of teams are rated higher than USF, so it could be a tall order. USF is 19-8-2 against the odds this season, but just 6-5-1 ATS away from home.
The South Florida Bulls are decent offensively, where they rely heavily on the 3-pointer, scoring 37.2% of their points behind the arc. USF does a fair job of getting to the foul line and capitalizing on its free throw attempts. The Bulls are the best defensive team in the conference, ranking No. 1 in both 2- and 3-point percentage.
North Texas Mean Green (+950)
The Mean Green are outsiders here and it’s easy to see why. North Texas is like a poor man’s USF, as the Mean Green’s strength offensively is the 3-pointer. The Mean Green are No. 2 in 3-point percentage offensively, although they don’t do much else that well. North Texas shoots just 47.1% on 2-pointers.
The defense is solid, but the Mean Green send opposing NCAAB teams to the foul line far too much. North Texas is last in the AAC and No. 323 in the nation in free throw attempts compared to field goals attempted defensively. The Mean Green are No. 2 in effective field goal percent and can force some turnovers.
Who to Bet On?
Strictly on numbers, the NCAAB basketball predictions will have FAU winning the conference tournament. The Owls are probably the most well-rounded team in the AAC, but they’re not without their blemishes. The KenPom rankings have Florida Atlantic 4.32 points better than SMU, who are ranked No. 2 in the conference. USF is ranked No. 5.
Charlotte and UAB, who finished third and fourth in the conference, aren’t even in the top five in the betting odds.
That, along with USF’s odds, shows the sportsbooks aren’t putting too much emphasis on what happened in the regular season. You’re never really fond of playing favorites in conference tournaments, but at +170 the Owls are probably the way to bet this one.
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