March Madness Round 1: North Carolina vs Wagner Analysis & Score

North Carolina vs Wagner Final Score

Tar Heels vs Seahawks Preview

The North Carolina Tar Heels are back in the NCAA Tournament after a one-year hiatus, and this time, they’re a No. 1 seed poised to make some serious noise.

Just two years removed from making a run to the title game as a No. 8 seed—where they lost to Kansas—the Tar Heels are one of the best college basketball teams in the country and have a nice draw as they look to win the seventh national championship in school history.

The North Carolina vs Wagner lines like the Tar Heels’ chances to get started with a comfortable win.

It has been a wild season for North Carolina’s first-round opponent, the Wagner Seahawks from Staten Island in New York City. NCAAB injuries have ravaged Donald Copeland’s team , and by December, the Seahawks had lost six players to season-ending injuries (including four starters).

Despite being down to seven scholarship NCAAB players, Wagner stayed in the mix in the Northeast Conference and won the conference tournament to earn their first NCAA Tournament berth since 2003.

The NCAA Tournament predictions didn’t even think Wagner would win its First Four game on Tuesday night, where the underdog Seahawks blew a substantial second-half lead against Howard but managed to hold on to secure the program’s first-ever Big Dance win.

It seemed as if the Seahawks squandered a huge opportunity, but as they had done all season, they had done enough to survive and advance. Now, they’re rewarded by playing a really good North Carolina team in what is basically a home game for the Tar Heels, who are favored by 25 points.

Could Be Low-Scoring Game

While North Carolina is a top-20 offensive team in the country and has a first-team AP All-American in RJ Davis, who scores over 21 points per game, the Tar Heels are a scary team because of their defense.

Hubert Davis’ squad is sixth in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency, largely due to having Armando Bacot control things in the paint. Also, as led by Bacot, North Carolina is an elite rebounding team (eighth nationally) that doesn’t give opponents second or third chances at scoring. That makes a big difference.

The North Carolina vs. Wagner lines expect the Tar Heels to clamp down on Wagner, and considering how the Seahawks are 332nd in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, that looks likely.

Wagner averages just 63.8 points per game—the 10th-fewest in the country—and shoots under 40% from the field (the 9th-worst field goal percentage in Division 1). The Seahawks also rarely get to the charity stripe, attempting only 15 free throws a night. Wagner doesn’t exactly light up the scoreboard.

Wagner has also succeeded mostly due to its defense. The Seahawks allow just 62.3 points per game, the seventh-best figure in the country. They are disciplined and do not foul but also play at the second-slowest pace in the nation.

It will be easier said than done for Wagner to control the tempo and get stops against a strong and big team like North Carolina, with a considerable size and talent advantage. The NCAA men’s basketball schedule is not kind to No. 16 seeds like Wagner.

Seahawks Have A Lot Working Against Them

As if Wagner didn’t have a tall enough task against them, there are seemingly infinite factors that just are not in the Seahawks’ favor for this game.

First, they played last night in Dayton and have to travel to Charlotte for an afternoon game tomorrow, meaning that they’ll have less than 48 hours of rest before facing — by far — the best team they’ll have played this season.

The North Carolina vs Wagner lines certainly reflect how Wagner has faced, by all accounts, one of the worst strength-of-schedules in the country.

Due to a pretty weak NEC and an uninspiring nonconference schedule, the Seahawks haven’t played many good teams this season, so it’s incredibly difficult to go from that kind of schedule to playing North Carolina in Charlotte—which is just a two-hour drive from Chapel Hill.

The Tar Heels will functionally be playing at home and that’s great news for them because they lost only one home game all season. Wagner went 7-10 in true road NCAAB games.

When you put everything together, it feels slightly surprising that the line isn’t more than 25 points in North Carolina’s favor. This is one of those men’s college basketball scores that might get out of hand incredibly quickly. You should feel comfortable taking the Tar Heels to cover.

As for the over/under (133.5 points), it’s a tougher call but the under is probably the right play. Wagner plays very slow and will have a lot of trouble scoring on North Carolina, especially at the rim.

For NCAAB betting news, NCAAB odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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