2024 NCAA Tournament Second Round Preview: North Carolina vs Michigan State
Blue Bloods Face Off Yet Again
After North Carolina trounced Wagner and Michigan State took care of business against Mississippi State in their respective First Round games, the Tar Heels and Spartans are all set to face off in the Big Dance yet again on Saturday evening in Charlotte.
The two programs have a long history of NCAA Tournament matchups but haven’t played each other in the postseason since 2009. The North Carolina vs Michigan State betting spreads have the Tar Heels as a four-point favorite in what is essentially a home game for North Carolina.
A No. 1 seed, North Carolina didn’t have much trouble with No. 16 seed Wagner on Thursday, winning 90-62 behind 22 points from RJ Davis and a 20-point, 15-rebound double-double from Armando Bacot.
As usual, the Tar Heels dominated the boards — doubling up the Seahawks in rebounds — and shot 55% from the field. They had a big size advantage over undermanned Wagner, which rode an awesome story to its first NCAA Tournament win in program history in the First Four but still had some of the lowest odds to win the NCAA Tournament.
Michigan State also had a pretty stress-free win over Mississippi State on Thursday, cruising to a 69-51 victory. The outcome of the Spartans’ game was never really in doubt as Michigan State held off the Bulldogs whenever Chris Jans’ team tried to make a run in the second half.
Tyson Walker (19 points) and Jaden Akins (15 points) led the way offensively, but the Spartans shined on defense, holding Mississippi State to 37% shooting from the field. This was a very impressive start to the tournament for Tom Izzo’s bunch.
North Carolina Tar Heels vs Michigan State Spartans 
Day/Time:
Location:Spectrum Center; Charlotte, North Carolina
Streaming: CBS
Storied Non-Conference Rivalry Is Renewed
Although it has been 15 years since these teams battled in the NCAA Tournament, the history of big games between North Carolina and Michigan State adds a lot of juice to this year’s edition.
The Tar Heels are 5-0 against the Spartans in the tournament, including a national semifinal win in 2005 and a national championship win in 2009. Izzo just could never get over the hump against his old nemesis Roy Williams so he’ll look to have better success against Williams’ successor, Hubert Davis.
Understandably, the Tar Heels have the edge on the North Carolina vs Michigan State betting lines, but it’s a much smaller spread than you would expect from a No. 1 seed playing a No. 9 seed.
That shows just how much Vegas respects Michigan State, which had a tough first-round matchup and pretty much dominated play throughout. There is something to be said about how well the Spartans manage to step up to the plate in big games.
It also helps that Michigan State is led by three really reliable seniors: Walker, A.J. Hoggard, and Malik Hall. They, as well as Akins, do the lion’s share of the scoring and are all experienced and smart players. While Michigan State was an inconsistent team all regular season—finishing just 10-10 in the Big Ten—the flashes of a great team were certainly there, even if the NCAA rankings didn’t reflect that.
Rebounding Is Key
It’s always a big story when North Carolina takes the floor, but if the Tar Heels continue to do what they have done all season and control the glass, then things will be difficult for Michigan State.
Bacot and Harrison Ingram have been the driving forces behind the Tar Heels’ status as a top-ten rebounding team in the country but even Jae’lyn Withers contributed with 10 boards against Wagner so it’s a full team effort.
The Spartans are a middle-of-the-pack team on the glass so they might not be able to counteract North Carolina’s strength there.
Now, rebounding might not matter much if Michigan State hits 10 threes again and is able to hold the Tar Heels to under 40% shooting, but North Carolina’s ability to limit the second chances that other teams get (and to create their own) can be a difference-making in a close game. That’s exactly what the North Carolina vs Michigan State betting lines expect this to be.
Tar Heels Will Control The Paint
If you’re looking for free college basketball picks, consider taking the Tar Heels to cover. The concern with that pick is that Michigan State’s guards can get hot from three like they did against Mississippi State and like they did from time to time in the Big Ten.
However, the shooting just isn’t consistently there for the Spartans and they, as a team, just don’t take many threes on average — just 322nd-most in the country on a per-game basis.
What’s much more likely to happen is that Walker and Akins knock down a couple of triples apiece but that no other Spartan is able to really get going from the perimeter.
Then, Michigan State will be forced to get to the rim more, yet that’s a much more difficult task with Bacot’s 6’10” frame clogging up the middle. So, getting Bacot in foul trouble would be critical for an upset.
On the other hand, North Carolina’s multi-faceted offense is also hard to stop between Davis’ playmaking, Bacot’s size and the combination of Harrison Ingram and Cormac Ryan on the outside. There’s a reason North Carolina is in the top-20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom.
The point total is set at 140 points. Go with the under. These teams are solid offensively but the strength of each is on the defensive end.
For NCAAB betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
