December College Hoops: Are NCAAB Top 25 Rankings Legitimate?
Teams That are Overrated and Underrated by the AP Poll
The Thanksgiving college basketball tournaments are over and teams are gearing up for the start of conference play. Some teams have gotten off to slower-than expected starts. Of the top 10 NCAAB teams in the preseason AP poll, only three are in the top 10 of the Dec. 5, 2022 Associated Press poll.
Preseason No. 1 North Carolina is out of the top 25 completely. Gonzaga, the preseason No. 2 team, sits way down at No. 18. An NCAAB top 25 ranking isn’t necessarily the best method to choose the 25 best teams in college basketball. Does anybody really believe there are 17 college basketball teams better than Gonzaga? Jeff Sagarin certainly doesn’t, as the Sagarin college basketball ratings have the Zags at No. 6.
For a team like TCU, an NCAAB top 25 ranking is pretty exciting. TCU hasn’t been ranked since the 2018-19 season. The Horned Frogs checked in at No. 24 in the latest AP poll. There’s just one problem. TCU isn’t the 24th-best team in the country. The unranked Tar Heels would be favored over TCU on a neutral court, at least according to the Sagarin ratings and Ken Pomeroy.
Each week, basketball fans – and bettors – get a slightly distorted view of where teams stack up against one another in the manner of the AP poll. Poll voters tend to look at the college basketball standings and give little weight to other factors. Strength of schedule, game situations and injuries don’t receive the attention they deserve, it’s about wins and losses.
Overrated Teams in the AP Top 25
Virginia Cavaliers-No. 3
Virginia Cavaliers-The Cavaliers are off to a nice 7-0 start with a pair of quality wins over Baylor and Illinois. But a home-loaded schedule against the likes of Monmouth, NC Central and Maryland Eastern Shore will do wonders for your record.
Those who have used the Cavs in their NCAAB picks and parlays likely aren’t as high on Virginia. The Cavs are 3-4 ATS. Pomeroy has Virginia No. 7 and the Sagarin ratings have the Cavs at No. 19.
Arizona Wildcats-No. 10
Arizona Wildcats-The Wildcats are another team which has played a home-loaded schedule. Teams like Nichols, Southern and Utah Tech won’t sniff an NCAAB top 25 ranking anytime soon.
Arizona has a pair of nice wins over Creighton and San Diego State but was thumped in their lone road game by Utah. Pomeroy has Arizona No. 16 and the Sagarin ratings have UA at No. 23.
Iowa State Cyclones-No. 20
Iowa State Cyclones-The Cyclones have a big win, a big loss and a lot of nothing else going on. Iowa State is another team who front-loaded its home schedule and did knock off North Carolina.
The Cyclones were then thumped by UConn and have run up scores against the likes of NC A&T, IUPUI and North Dakota. Pomeroy has the Cyclones at No. 41, while the Sagarin basketball rankings have ISU at No. 35.
TCU Horned Frogs-No. 24
TCU Horned Frogs-The Horned Frogs have defeated some weaker teams at home and do have a win against Iowa. They also have a home loss against Northwestern State, which puts doubt on their NCAAB top 25 ranking. But when you play such a weak schedule, you should be winning.
Sagarin has TCU with the 350th toughest schedule and Pomeroy has TCU at No. 355. Pomeroy does like the Horned Frogs more than Sagarin. He has TCU at No. 37, while the Sagarin ratings have the team at No. 47.
Underrated Teams in the AP Top 25
Tennessee Volunteers-No. 7
Tennessee Volunteers-The Vols have also benefited from playing at home, going 7-1. But Tennessee is doing what a team should when playing weaker teams – winning big, as evidenced by its 5-3 ATS record.
The Vols have a loss against a better than average Colorado team and a big win against Kansas. Tennessee is blowing out the teams it should and its schedule is about average. Both the Sagarin college basketball rankings and Pomeroy have Tennessee at No. 3.
Gonzaga Bulldogs-No. 18
Gonzaga Bulldogs-The Bulldogs will play anybody at any time and its shows in the team’s 6-3 record. But the Zags have played one of the top five toughest schedules in the country, with four opponents having an NCAAB top 25 ranking.
The Bulldogs are more concerned with what happens in March Madness than what happened in November. Gonzaga will be battle-tested for the start of conference play and will be a tough team to beat once the NCAA Tournament rolls around. Pomeroy has Gonzaga rated No. 9 and the Sagarin ratings have the Zags No. 6.
UCLA Bruins-No. 19
UCLA Bruins-The Bruins aren’t the Bruins of old but UCLA is an excellent team. UCLA has started the season off with a 7-2 mark, losing a pair of games against Illinois and Baylor, two pretty good teams.
The Bruins have beaten a decent Oregon team and have taken care of business against weaker teams, going 5-3 ATS as a favorite. Both Sagarin and Pomeroy have the Bruins as having played a better than average schedule and each has UCLA rated No. 8.
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