Duquesne vs Illinois Odds: Illini Double-Digit Favorites
Dukes' Defense to Get Major Test
The Duquesne Dukes (25-11) face the Illinois Fighting Illini (27-8) in an East Region second-round game Saturday night. The Dukes upset No. 6 seed BYU 71-67 to advance here, while No. 3 seed Illinois cruised past Morehead St. 85-69. This game will be the proverbial offense vs defense matchup, as Duquesne can play defense, but Illinois is one of the best offensive teams in the nation. The Duquesne vs Illinois odds see the Fighting Illini favored by 10 points and the total is at 148 points.
Dukes vs Fighting Illini 
Location: CHI Health Center Omaha, Omaha, Nebraska
Day/Time:
Streaming: TNT
Duquesne Playing Best Basketball of Season
There’s no doubt the Dukes are playing their basketball of the season. Duquesne won the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament to make the NCAA Tournament field and then upset BYU. The Dukes have been a solid underdog all season going 8-2 against the spread and are 7-1 ATS in March. Duquesne is 6-2 ATS on neutral courts this season. It’s been a strange season for Duquesne, which lost its first five conference games of the season to fall to 9-8. The Dukes have gone 16-3 straight-up since then and have won nine games in a row. The KenPom ratings have Duquesne as the No. 80 team in the country, the same ranking as the college basketball net rankings.
The Dukes will live or die in this one with their defense, which KenPom has ranked No. 29. Duquesne has allowed 70 or more points just once in its last nine games. The Dukes defend the 3-pointer well, allowing just 31.7% shooting, and are solid against the 2-pointer. Duquesne is solid at forcing turnovers but has allowed too many offensive rebounds. The Dukes will block some shots but also send the opposition to the foul line a little too much.
There isn’t much to get excited about in regards to the Duquesne offense. The Dukes don’t shoot the ball very well, make too many turnovers, and don’t get many offensive rebounds. Duquesne was No. 14 in the Atlantic 10 in offensive efficiency and No. 157 in the nation. The NCAA tournament results show Duquesne was 50% from the field in 2-point range against BYU, which was good enough.
Illinois All About the Offense
The Fighting Illini will bring the No. 2 offense in the country into this one. The only team that KenPom rankings have with a higher offensive efficiency rating is UConn. Illinois can score from 2- or 3-point range, grab some offensive rebounds, and don’t make many turnovers. The team really doesn’t have a weakness offensively.
The defense isn’t bad, but it’s not at the same level as the offense. The Fighting Illini rank No. 92 in overall defensive efficiency, although that could be a little misleading. Illinois is penalized for not forcing many turnovers but defends well enough. The 2-point defense is especially strong, where the Illini allow just 46.6% shooting. Illinois does allow 34.4% on 3-pointers. Surprisingly, teams didn’t shoot many 3-pointers against Illinois.
The Illini have fared pretty well against the point spread this season, going 20-13-2 and 15-12 when favored. Illinois has been a strong over team with a 25-10 mark. Illinois is 5-1 ATS and 6-0 in totals when playing on a neutral court. The Illini are 15-6 in total when the number is 150 or lower.
What to Expect
The Dukes typically play at a slightly slower than average pace but could turn it down a notch here. The Illini are pretty average when it comes to tempo, although teams like to run a little more against them. Duquesne shouldn’t try to do the same as it doesn’t have the athletes Illinois does.
The Dukes could look to shoot a few more 3-pointers than normal here. The Illini are much better defending the inside than the perimeter. Duquesne isn’t a great shooting team from anywhere on the court, so it should look to strike where Illinois is the weakest.
Who to Bet On?
The Duquesne vs Illinois odds of Illini -10 is pretty much what you would expect. There’s no question Illinois is the better team, but the Dukes have been playing well. Illinois has played a tougher schedule, although Duquesne played a tougher non-conference schedule. The Illini don’t get as much of a strength of schedule advantage as you would think. Illinois is the best offense Duquesne has seen this season. While the Dukes can play defense, the Illini has seen better during conference play.
The Duquesne vs Illinois odds of 148 on the total is a little intriguing. The number is a bit low for Illinois, but the Dukes may not score a lot in this one. It will depend on how the team fares from the outside. The Illini have been a huge over team all season, but both bettors and the sportsbooks are aware of this.
The March Madness odds are usually pretty solid and this game is no exception. The best value play in this game is probably the under 148. The Dukes should do all they can to keep the pace down and typically don’t shoot well enough to take advantage of the Illinois 3-point defense.
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