The Tennessee Volunteers Have The Championship DNA

We're Only Wagering On One Of The Texas vs Tennessee Lines

The Texas Longhorns added a 56-44 win over the Colorado State Rams in the Round of 64.

With that, they’ve made it into the Round of 32, but it’ll only get tougher from here. Texas has No. 2-seeded Tennessee up next, who just won its first game, 83-49 over St. Peter’s.

Both defenses held the opposition to under 50 points in their NCAA Tournament openers. Both teams also look like they can get far into the tournament after the first game. However, only one team can actually survive and advance into the Sweet 16.

Oddsmakers think it’ll be Tennessee. The Volunteers are currently sitting at -6.5 with a moneyline price of -275. Meanwhile, Texas can be bought at +225. While that line is intriguing, the total has already slipped from 147.5 to 146.5, with sharp action hitting the Under.

That ultimately makes sense after both teams held their opposition under 50 points in the Opening Round.

Let’s take a deeper dive into these Texas vs Tennessee lines below.

Longhorns logo Texas Longhorns vs Tennessee Volunteers Volunteers logo

Location: Spectrum Center
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Streaming: CBS

Texas vs Tennessee Lines & Trends

Texas underachieved this season. The Longhorns only went 17-19-1 against the spread but hit the Over in 20 of 33 games this year.

The Longhorns ultimately struggled on the road, winning only four of ten games away from the home facility this year.

On the other hand, Tennessee has gone 17-15-1 against the spread and has also hit the Over in two more games than the Under this season.

While both defenses were electric to start the NCAA Tournament, both NCAAB teams are used to going Over the total.

The last time Tennessee and Texas played was on January 28, 2023. Tennessee won that game 82-71 as a 5.5-point favorite at home. Since the total was 133.5, the game also went Over.

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Texas Made It Look Easy

Teams often use a First Four win as a springboard for Sweet 16 runs. However, the Texas Longhorns didn’t allow that when they faced Colorado State.

The Rams looked impressive in their win against Virginia in Tuesday’s First Four matchup. But Texas came in, looked well-rested, and defended at a very high level. The Longhorns only scored 56 points, so that will need to be addressed. Overall, the Longhorns took care of business to start the NCAA Tournament.

Texas was so good to start that it held Colorado State to 11 points in the first 20 minutes. At halftime, the score was 27-11. The Rams were only the 10th team in NCAA Tournament history to score 11 points or less in the first half. Those were some wild NCAA Tournament results to begin the Madness.

You can thank Texas’ physicality. That’s one of the many reasons Texas’ March Madness odds have a higher probability of heading into the second round.

Impressive Results From Tennessee

Just like Texas, the Tennessee Volunteers kept their opponent below 50 points, too, in an 83-49 win. Tennessee had an easier opponent in the St. Peter’s Peacocks, but in March, you can’t take anything for granted.

Tennessee’s best three players were prepared and ready to go at the tip. Dalton Knecht, Zakai Zeigler, and Jonas Aidoo combined for Tennessee’s first 29 points of the game. That’s ideal. It’s great when your leaders lead by example and come out ready to go.

With a massive lead, the silver lining here is that Tennessee was able to rest up its starters more. That’s crucial heading into Tennessee’s bout against Texas in the second round. It should also be noted that Tennessee is higher in the college basketball net rankings.

Who Will Make The Sweet 16?

It’s no surprise that St. Peter’s scored just 49 points against Tennessee in the Round of 64. The Volunteers rank No. 3 in the nation via KenPom in defensive efficiency. Teams have shot a 45.1% effective field goal percentage against the Vols, hitting only 31% from three and 44.2% from inside the arc.

The only downside to Tennessee’s defense is the amount of fouls the Vols give out. But that comes with the territory when you’re an aggressive defense.

Interestingly enough, the Longhorns do many things well on the offensive end. Getting to the foul line isn’t one of them.

The Texas offense plays well into the Tennessee defense. Texas can shoot well and earn offensive rebounds, but they’re not elite in any of those categories. Tennessee should make it harder on Texas from the field and won’t allow many offensive rebounds.

Meanwhile, Texas has worse metrics in key areas like rebounding and three-point defense. The Longhorns have allowed 30% of offensive rebounds and have watched teams shoot 34.4% from downtown this year.

Texas also fouls at a high rate, like Tennessee. However, the difference is that Tennessee typically finds the foul line more often and should end up with more foul shots in this matchup.

Texas is solid defensively down low, holding teams to 47%. However, the Volunteers still take a lot of three-point shots, which is an area where Texas doesn’t defend well.

If Tennessee shoots from a higher percentage, earns more offensive rebounds, and gets to the foul line more, the Volunteers will win this game by more than seven points.

After looking at the Texas vs Tennessee lines, we’ll back the Volunteers at -6.5 (-110).

For NCAAB picks, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.


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