2023 Holiday Bowl – Louisville Cardinals vs USC Trojans Free Picks
Cardinals Look to Avenge ACC Title Game; Trojans Underachievers
The Louisville Cardinals were shut down in the ACC Championship game by Florida State which started an avalanche of controversy for FSU and the FBS bowl committee.
The Cardinals ended the season winning four of six games but failing to cover in half those games. USC had higher expectations, but when you have a defense that constantly lets the offense down you end up in San Diego rather than Pasadena. Oddsmakers opened Louisville -6.5 with a total of 57.5.
Since then, the total has held steady but Louisville is now -7.5. Betting trends show that 79% of the money is coming in on the Cardinals along with 57% of the tickets. Let’s start our 2023 Holiday Bowl pick analysis starting with Louisville.
Holiday Bowl Information
Louisville (10-3) at USC Trojans (7-5) 
Day/Time:
Location: Petco Park, San Diego, California
Stream: FOX
Louisville Loses WR To NFL
There is nothing better than to watch a team all season long only to get to the bowl game and have no idea who they are. Betting on bowl season is a crap shoot. Monday Louisville found out that WR Jamari Thrash will make himself available for the NFL draft and will not be playing against USC in the 2023 Holiday Bowl.
The redshirt junior is thought of as the 96th-best draft prospect according to Pro Football Focus. Thrash and Jawhar Jordan have declared for the draft adding to the 11 NCAAF players who will not be part of the Louisville Football team on December 27th.
Thrash struggled with injuries this season but still managed to produce 858 receiving yards, third in the ACC. It’s hard to properly handicap a team that won 10 games, seven of which are going to bowl games because of the changes, but this is a Louisville team that averaged 30.9 points per game (45th in the country) and 175.3 rushing yards per game (47th nationally).
We suspect that most of the football bowl season will feature NCAA Football scores that will not be a reflection of who we thought these teams were before bowl season.
Cardinals Lose Player, USC Loses Coach
Two days ago, USC DB coach Donte Williams announced that he was leaving the program to take on the same position with the Georgia Bulldogs.
No matter how much a role a coach played in winning and losing you have to understand that he meant something to the group of kids he coached and that his departure adds another layer of difficulty to handicapping the game.
USC was just 3-9 ATS with NFL-bound QB Caleb Williams behind center, now with Williams not playing in the 2023 Holiday Bowl and Malachi Nelson entering the transfer portal, it makes us feel like we’d rather put our money behind a Columbus Blue Jackets game than to flip a coin in this one!
For a part of the season that used to be a month-long treat for fans, it’s turned into a month-long joke for CFB bettors.
The Coin Is In The Air
Just for the record, we’re not flipping a coin but it’s tempting because of the amount of time spent trying to determine how effective a third-string offensive tackle will be against a second-string linebacker in some cases just isn’t worth it, but the show must go on. When in doubt, we always lean on defense.
There’s a reason this total hasn’t budged and that’s because no one has a clue, but kids playing aggressively on defense. After all, they’re getting shot to be seen on a big stage while new offense players tend to think rather than react, advantage defense.
Our official selection of the under is our favorable play in this college football match-up with a slight lean to Louisville because we feel like whoever suites up for Louisville will be more motivated to get a win.
With that being said, there is no play on the moneyline for us because we don’t have an interest in laying -310. That’s our official 2023 Holiday Bowl selection, we wish you all the best with your wagers.
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