68 Ventures Bowl: South Alabama vs. Eastern Michigan Free Picks
Jaguars Up-And-Down All Season
The 68 Ventures Bowl could very well be a blowout. But it could also turn out to be a hard-fought game depending on which South Alabama team shows up.
If it’s the team that drilled Oklahoma State 33-7, this one will get ugly. But it could be quite entertaining if the team that lost the following week to Central Michigan 34-30.
So far, bettors are expecting the better South Alabama team to show up, as the point spread has moved from Jaguars -15.5 to South Alabama -16. The moneyline has settled in at Jaguars -700 after opening at -820.
The total has dropped slightly from 47 to the current number of 46.5. For the South Alabama vs EMU free pick, we’ll look at both teams and their trends to come up with plays on the side and total.
68 Ventures Bowl
Jaguars vs Eagles 
Day/Time:
Records: South Alabama (6-6) at Eastern Michigan (6-6)
Location: Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, Alabama
Streaming: ESPN
Are Jaguars Overpriced Again?
Even though the game is being played in South Alabama’s home stadium, the Jaguars are technically the road team in this game. But they’ll certainly have the crowd advantage. Jaguars coach Kane Wommack can talk all he wants about how special it is to have South Alabama playing a college bowl game at home. But he needs his college football players to buy into it.
The Jaguars averaged 30.9 points against NCAAF teams that allowed 29 for the season, so they’re a little better than average. South Alabama rushed for 160 yards per game and threw for 264.9, so the Jaguars can move the football. In all six wins, South Alabama rushed for more than 190 yards.
So the Jaguars were 6-0 straight-up and 4-2 against the college football odds when rushing for 190 yards and 0-6 straight-up and ATS when they didn’t. Leading receiver Caullin Lacy has entered the transfer portal, and he’s a good one.
On defense, the Jaguars allowed 21.9 points to teams averaging 26.5 points. The run defense allowed just 3.3 yards per rush, while the pass defense was a little worse than average.
The Jaguars finished the season just 4-8 against the spread and 6-6 in totals. As a favorite, South Alabama was 5-3 straight-up and 3-5 against the spread.
Is Eastern Michigan Worst Team in Bowl Game?
The Eagles may not be the worst team to be playing in a bowl game, but they’re awfully close if they’re not. The Sagarin college football ratings have Eastern Michigan at No. 130. The college bowl team closest to the Eagles is South Florida at No. 119.
The Eagles averaged 20.3 points against teams, allowing 27.8 points, gaining just 3.5 yards per rush and 5.8 yards per pass attempt. Eastern Michigan averaged just 272 total yards per game, so it did well scoring as many points as it did.
The defense wasn’t bad, but it wasn’t that great. The Eagles allowed 24 points per game, but their opponents averaged just 22.5 points during the season. Eastern Michigan allowed 4.5 yards per rush to teams averaging 4.2 yards a rush. The pass defense wasn’t any better, allowing 7.0 yards per attempt to teams that averaged 6.4 yards per pass attempt.
Eastern Michigan was 1-6 straight-up and 3-4 against the spread as an underdog this season. The Eagles were 5-6-1 overall against the spread and 5-7 in totals.
Jaguars Roll, If They’re Ready to Play
If Wommack has his team ready to play, South Alabama can win this one going away. But that’s a big “if,” as the Jaguars threw in a couple of clunkers during the regular season.
South Alabama managed to lose outright twice as double-digit favorites. But when on their game, the Jaguars can look like one of the teams mentioned in the CFP bowl projections. South Alabama’s average score in victories was 37.8-8.
South Alabama played the tougher CFB schedule and has the much better numbers. It’s simply impossible to go against the Jaguars in this spot.
The South Alabama vs EMU free pick for the side is the Jaguars -16. South Alabama is better on both sides of the ball and can shut down the Eastern Michigan offense. The Eagles had problems moving the ball against defenses that weren’t as good as South Alabama.
The moneyline is a little more difficult to predict. Laying -700 with the Jaguars isn’t the smartest of plays, but it is really the only way to go. Just keep it small and maybe use in a parlay.
The South Alabama vs EMU free pick on the total will be the under 46.5. It’s difficult to imagine Eastern Michigan putting up many points in this one. The South Alabama defense should have a chip on its shoulder after allowing 52 points last time out.
For NCAAF betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
