AAC Team Win Totals: Tulane, SMU Top of the Heap

The American Athletic Conference underwent seismic change, adding six schools to replace Cincinnati, Houston and UCF. New to the league are Charlotte, FAU, North Texas, Rice, UAB and UTSA.

Tulane is a +205 favorite to defend its title, but the Green Wave are far from a lock. Who else is — and is not — in the mix? Let’s break down the projected AAC team win totals.

Charlotte 49ers

Over 2.5: -175
Under 2.5: +135

The 49ers struggled in their brief existence in Conference USA, including a 3-9 finish last season. They aren’t expected to be much better in the AAC. In fact, they have the lowest projected win total in the conference.

East Carolina Pirates

Over 5.5: +120
Under 5.5: -150

The Pirates open Sept. 2 at Michigan (gulp) and have a bunch to replace, including their quarterback and top two playmakers. It’s a lot to ask of fourth-year coach Mike Houston, who’s taken the program to back-to-back bowl games, including a blowout victory over Coastal Carolina in the 2022 Birmingham Bowl.

Florida Atlantic Owls

Over 7.5: +115
Under 7.5: -145

Oddsmakers are bullish on ex-Texas coach Tom Herman’s ability to turn around the Owls in wake of the failed Willie Taggart era. The Owls share the third-highest projected AAC team win total.

Though Taggart struggled, FAU’s been a spot where big-name coaches have rebranded themselves — and the program — before heading to greener pastures at the Power Five level. Case in point: Lane Kiffin.

Memphis Tigers

Over 7.5: -150
Under 7.5: +120

The Tigers may go as far as quarterback Seth Henigan can take them. He threw for 22 touchdowns and ranked 16th nationally in passing yards last year, with 3,571.

The schedule is tricky, with Missouri, Boise State and Tulane three straight weeks from Sept. 23-Oct. 13, but the Tigers will be fit to win some shootouts.

Navy Midshipmen

Over 6.5: -110
Under 6.5: -120

Defensive coordinator Brian Newberry was promoted to replace Ken Niumatalolo, who was fired after 16 seasons at the helm. Newberry has some strong credentials — for one, he commanded a top 25 run defense last season — but expecting him to pick up where Niumatalolo left off most years is a tall order.

The Midshipmen will be tested right from the jump, as they open the season against Notre Dame in Ireland. Oddsmakers have pegged the Fighting Irish as a 20.5-point favorite.

North Texas Mean Green

Over 6.5: -120
Under 6.5: -110

North Texas was the Conference USA runner-up last season and has appeared in three straight bowl games. Now, it’s off to the AAC, where the Mean Green — led by new coach Eric Morris — should slide right in as a perennial contender.

The Mean Green get Tulane, Memphis, UTSA and SMU over a four week stretch on the college football schedule from Oct. 21-Nov. 10. That will go a long way toward defining their season.

Rice Owls

Over 4.5: -115
Under 4.5: -115

Rice had the highest Academic Progress Rate among 5-7 teams last season, allowing it to participate in a bowl despite failing to hit the six-win threshold for eligibility. The Owls wound up losing to Southern Mississippi in the LendingTree Bowl, a relatively forgettable farewell to their days in Conference USA.

The Owls aren’t expected to be much better this season.

SMU Mustangs

Over 8: -125
Under 8: -105

The non-conference schedule is daunting, with trips to Oklahoma (Sept. 9) and TCU (Sept. 23), but it shouldn’t slow down SMU too much. The Mustangs — who own the second-highest projected AAC team win total — have a soft landing in conference play. Plus, they don’t have to play Tulane.

The only concern: Can they adequately replace quarterback Tanner Mordecai, who transferred to Wisconsin?

South Florida Bulls

Over 4: -125
Under 4: -105

Former Tennessee offensive coordinator Alex Golesh takes over a team that went 1-11, with its lone win coming against FCS program Howard. Perhaps a new voice will yield slightly better results.

Temple Owls

Over 5: -140
Under 5: +110

In midst of a 3-9 campaign, E.J. Warner — the son of NFL Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner — showed promise as a freshman. Warner completed 60.5% of his passes for 3,028 yards and 18 touchdowns, proving to be a quick study under first-year coach Stan Drayton.

The first three games — Akron, Rutgers and Norfolk State — are winnable. After that comes a date with Miami at Lincoln Financial Field.

Tulane Green Wave

Over 9.5: +110
Under 9.5: -140

The Green Wave return return a bulk of talent from a team that stunned USC in the Cotton Bowl Classic. With quarterback Michael Pratt back, they seem like a good bet to land in the preseason Top 25 poll, with an eye on defending their title.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane

Over 4: -120
Under 4: -110

The Golden Hurricane took a step back last season, finishing 5-7 and outside of bowl contention. Former Ohio State offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson was brought in to help revive the program. Wilson’s known as a strong offensive mind, but he doesn’t have much to show for it as a head coach: 26-47, including 0-2 in bowl games, from 2011-16 at Indiana.

UAB Blazers

Over 5: -120
Under 5: -110

The non-conference schedule is fairly manageable before a Sept. 23 trip to … wait for it … Georgia. That’s followed by the AAC opener against Tulane. By then, we should get a pretty good indication whether Trent Dilfer is fit for the job. The former Super Bowl-winning quarterback has very limited coaching experience on his resume, with only four years at Lipscomb Academy, a private high school in Nashville, Tenn.

UTSA Roadrunners

Over 7.5: -135
Under 7.5: +105

Jeff Traylor turned down overturns from the Power Five level, choosing instead to sign a 10-year contract to remain at UTSA. His buyout starts at $7.5 million, a hefty chunk of change for a program of UTSA’s stature.

It shows just how much UTSA has grown under Traylor’s watch. The Roadrunners are coming off back-to-back Conference USA championships. They’ll be a serious contender in the AAC, too.

Record-setting quarterback Frank Harris returns for a seventh season, but he’ll need to find a new No. 1 target after Zakhari Franklin — who tied for second nationally with 15 touchdown receptions — transferred to Ole Miss.

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