ACC Win Totals: Florida State, Clemson Leading Way as Fav’s

Roughly half of the ACC’s 14 football schools will feature new starters at quarterback this season. While Florida State and Clemson are the preseason favorites, North Carolina and Louisville both could join them atop the standings.

Here’s a thorough breakdown of the projected ACC win totals for the 2023-24 season.

Like Virginia, Boston College lost it’s starting quarterback to a conference opponent when Phil Jurkovec transferred to Pittsburgh. Jurkovec dealt with multiple injuries in 2022, though the Eagles still could have used his experience and playmaking abilities. His best season came in 2020 when he threw for 2,558 yards, 17 touchdowns, and just five interceptions.

Sophomore Emmett Morehead is likely to take over under center after starting four games last season. The Eagles also must replace No. 1 receiver Zay Flowers, who was drafted 22nd overall by the Baltimore Ravens.

Clemson went 11-3 in 2022 but missed the College Football Playoff in consecutive seasons for the first time since the format began in 2014. To help get the Tigers back on track — keep in mind, they did win the ACC title last season — head coach Dabo Swinney poached offensive coordinator Garrett Riley from national runner-up TCU. No. 1 on Riley’s agenda: Unearth quarterback Cade Klubnik’s potential.

The Tigers have won double-digit games in 12 straight seasons.

The Blue Devils exceeded expectations in Mike Elko’s first season, going 9-4 with a 30-13 victory over UCF in the Military Bowl. The schedule is challenging early — the Blue Devils open on Sept. 2 against Clemson at home and host Notre Dame on Sept. 30 — but with Riley Leonard back at quarterback, Duke appears to be in good hands.

Quarterback Jordan Travis returns, giving the Seminoles a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender. On the heels of a 10-3 finish, the Seminoles have the makings of a preseason Top-5 team, not to mention a College Football Playoff contender. It’s no wonder they have the highest projected ACC win totals.

Brent Key led his alma mater to a 4-4 record over its final eight games after inheriting a 1-3 team from Geoff Collins. The Yellow Jackets finished 5-7, and Key, a former All-ACC lineman at Georgia Tech from 1997-2000, had his interim coaching tag removed in November.

Quarterback Jeff Sims transferred to Nebraska, but Key might have found his replacement in Haynes King, formerly at Texas A&M.

New head coach Jeff Brohm hit the transfer portal hard this offseason, bringing in roughly a dozen new players, including former Purdue and California quarterback Jack Plummer. Brohm has plenty of familiarity with Louisville, which should ease the transition.

The Hurricanes‘ fate will likely depend on whether quarterback Tyler Van Dyke can bounce back from an underwhelming 2022 season and reclaim his status as a top-flight NFL prospect. The former ACC Rookie of the Year threw just 10 touchdown passes last year while missing part of six games due to injury.

North Carolina‘s season rests squarely on the shoulders of quarterback Drake Maye. Maye passed for 4,321 yards, 38 touchdowns, and only seven interceptions in 2022, winning both ACC Player of the Year and ACC Rookie of the Year. Should he produce another season like that, Maye will be a surefire NFL first-round draft pick.

NC State‘s offense dropped off drastically last season following an injury to quarterback Devin Leary. Leary then transferred and was replaced by Brennan Armstrong, who started the last three years for ACC rival Virginia. Armstrong was one of the most experienced quarterbacks available in the portal, with 9,034 career passing yards, 58 passing touchdowns, and 20 rushing touchdowns.

The Sept. 2 home opener against Notre Dame should tell a lot about how far NC State can go.

Pittsburgh won nine games last year and made its fourth bowl appearance in five seasons under Pat Narduzzi, beating UCLA 37-35 in the Sun Bowl. While Kedon Slovis transferred to BYU following a brief stint with the Panthers, Narduzzi looked within the ACC to find a suitable replacement in Jurkovec.With one year of eligibility remaining, Jurkovec will reunite with his former offensive coordinator from Boston College, Frank Cignetti Jr.

In addition to Slovis, the Panthers also lost defensive tackle Calijah Kancey and running back Israel Abanikanda. Kancey, the ACC Defensive Player of the Year, was drafted 19th overall by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Syracuse sputtered down the stretch last season, finishing 7-6 after a 6-0 start. Star running back Sean Tucker signed as an undrafted free agent with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and highly acclaimed offensive coordinator Robert Anae bolted to NC State. Three starters on the offensive line also left, leaving the Orange with plenty of pieces to replace.

The NCAAF schedule looks challenging, with back-to-back trips in October to North Carolina and Florida State.

Armstrong’s departure left second-year head coach Tony Elliott without a proven starter at quarterback. Although Elliott added a potential replacement in Monmouth’s Tony Muskett, the Cavaliers seem bound to take a step back at the position. It’s why Virginia has the lowest projected ACC win totals.

It’s been a steep drop for Virginia Tech. The Hokies went 3-8 under first-year head coach Brent Pry, the program’s most losses since 1992. Pry landed former four-star quarterback Kyron Drones from Baylor, providing optimism for the future.

Will it be enough to rejuvenate the Hokies? It’s too early to tell.

Star quarterback Sam Hartman transferred to Notre Dame, leaving a major void on offense. Hartman threw for an ACC-record 110 touchdowns over his five seasons at Wake Forest. His 12,967 career passing yards ranked second in the conference, trailing only Philip Rivers. The Demon Deacons went 27-18 under his watch, including an appearance in the 2021 ACC Championship Game.

Presumed starter Mitch Griffs has big shoes to fill. However, a soft September schedule, featuring games against Elon, Vanderbilt, Old Dominion, and Georgia Tech, should give him time to get comfortable.

For NCAAF odds, betting news, analysis, and more, visit pointspreads.com

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