Mountain West Conference contenders Air Force and Boise State square off Friday (4 p.m. ET) at Albertsons Stadium.
The Broncos are currently 6.5-point favorites (-105) and -240 on the moneyline. Meanwhile, the Falcons are +6.5 (-115) on the college football betting lines and +200 to win outright. The projected total is 45.5 (-115 Over, -105 Under).
Can Boise State take care of business at home? Or will Air Force rule the day? Read on as we break down both teams and assess the Air Force vs Boise State odds in our college football game preview.
Date/Time: Friday, 4 p.m. ET
Where: Albertsons Stadium; Boise, Id.
The Air Force Falcons are 4-6-1 against the spread, including 2-1-1 away from home. That includes a 1-4-1 mark over their last six games. Additionally, the total has gone Under in four of Air Force’s last six games. Conversely, the Boise State Broncos are 5-4-2 ATS but 4-0-1 at home. The total has gone Over in seven of the Broncos’ 11 games. That’s important to remember when assessing the Air Force vs Boise State odds.
Falcons Keep Fading
A 3-point favorite, Air Force blew a 27-14 halftime lead and was shut out in the second half. It was outgained 465-404. The Falcons are now just 1-4-1 ATS over their last six games.
Air Force’s recent skid can be attributed largely to its defense. The Falcons have allowed 81 points the last three games. Prior to their 23-3 loss to Army on Nov. 4, the Falcons had given up more than 20 points just once over a five-game stretch. In spite of that regression, the Falcons still rank fourth nationally in total defense (265.3 yards allowed per game). Keep that in mind when analyzing the Air Force vs Boise State odds.
The Falcons still need one more victory to surpass their projected total of 8.5 in the regular season. Regardless of what happens, they’re bowl-eligible for the third consecutive season under Troy Calhoun. But they’ve likely squandered their chance of participating in a New Year’s Six bowl as the best program from the Group of Five.
Broncos Back on Track
The Boise State Broncos hammered Utah State 45-10 in Week 12 to improve to 5-2 in Mountain West play and 6-5 overall. It came just days following the dismissal of head coach Andy Avalos. That, coupled with UNLV’s victory over Air Force, moved the Broncos into a three-way tie for second place in the conference with one regular-season game remaining. A victory Friday would likely catapult the Broncos into the Mountain West Championship Game on Dec. 2, which will be hosted by the team with the team with the highest conference winning percentage.
The Broncos — projected for 7.5 wins — have won three of their last four games and own a head-to-head tiebreaker over San Jose State by virtue of their 35-27 victory on Oct. 7. This will be their first meeting this year with Air Force. The Broncos are priced as high as +450 to win the conference.
Boise State’s offense has been proficient of late, with back-to-back 40-point performances. The Broncos have scored at least 30 points in nine straight games and rank 34th nationally in scoring offense (32.5 PPG). Despite that, they’ve gone Under the projected total in three of their last four games, including Saturday against Utah State (63.5).
A 5-point favorite, Boise State rallied from a 10-0 deficit to rip off 31 unanswered points in the first half. George Holani had touchdown runs of 75 and 33 yards in the second quarter and finished with 178 of the Broncos’ 352 rushing yards. They had a 445-373 edge in total yardage.
Handicapping the Game
The Broncos looked rejuvenated under interim coach and defensive coordinator Spencer Danielson. Despite the disappointment that stemmed from Avalos’ tenure, the Broncos remain in contention in the Mountain West. Now they’re at Albertsons Stadium, where they’ve fared quite well.
That may not be enough to carry them by more than a touchdown, but clearly oddsmakers feel a lot better about their chances after a midseason slump. It also doesn’t help that Air Force has hit the skids following its unbeaten start.
If bettors are hesitant about betting the spread, they can turn their attention to Over 45.5.