Ole Miss Can Clinch a 10-Win Season With A Win Over the Rival Bulldogs
There’s not much at stake as Ole Miss and Mississippi State are set to meet for the 116th time in a series that began in 1902. According to the Mississippi vs MS State football bets, the visiting Rebels are double-digit favorites.
The college football teams have split the last eight meetings with four of the last six games between the Rebels and Bulldogs being decided by seven points or less.
Ole Miss is favored by 11 points according to the NCAA football scores and odds. It is the first time since 2018 that there is a double-digit point spread since 2018 and the first time Ole Miss is favored by at least 10 points in seven years.
The Rebels are 16-0 outright in its last 16 games as a double-digit favorite and 9-6-1 against the NCAAF odds in those games. Mississippi State has lost its last seven games as a double-digit underdog and has covered in just one of those games.
Ole Miss is tied with Louisiana State for second place in the SEC West Division with Alabama already securing the division title. If the Rebels finished tied with LSU, they would win the tiebreaker for second place based on a head-to-head win.
When looking at the college football schedule, next up for Ole Miss will be a bowl game while Mississippi State also hopes to be bowl-bound.
Mississippi State has just one conference win but could become bowl-eligible with a win.
The Rebels fired head coach Zach Arnett, the replacement for the late Mike Leach with Greg Knox serving as the interim coach.
Receiver Zakhari Franklin is questionable and fellow receiver Qua Davis is out for Ole Miss.
For Mississippi State, defensive linemen Kalvin Dinkins and Trevion Williams are out.
Coming into the season, Ole Miss was sixth with +4500 odds of winning the SEC title with Mississippi State having the longest SEC championship odds of +12000.
Date/Time: Thursday, Nov. 23, 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Davis-Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS
TV & Live Stream: ESPN
Line: Ole Miss -11.5 | Total: 56.5
Ole Miss Getting Offensive
Ole Miss ranks in the top 20 nationally in scoring offense, total offense and passing offense. The Rebels are in a position to finish in the top three in the SEC in total offense for the ninth season in a row. Keep that in mind when it comes to the Mississippi vs MS State football bets.
With Quinshon Judkins, who led the SEC in rushing as a freshman, slowed by injury at the beginning of the season the Rebels turned to quarterback Jaxson Dart to shoulder more responsibility.
The Rebels are fourth among FBS teams with an average of 10.3 yards per passing attempt. They have also done some of their best work in the first quarter with an average of 11.9 points in the first quarter of games ranking fourth at the Football Bowl Subdivision level.
The Las Vegas odds total has gone under in four of the last six games played by Ole Miss and in the last six road games against Mississippi State.
Changes Continue in Starkville
It was already expected to be a season of transition as Leach’s pass-happy “Air Raid” offense was replaced by a more balanced approach.
More changes are on the way after Arnett was let go.
Mississippi State averages more running plays than passing plays and that would have been unthinkable with Leach at the helm.
The Bulldogs rank outside the top 100 in total offense this season.
However, for the first time since 2019, the Bulldogs will not finish last in the SEC in rushing offense. That could factor into the Mississippi vs MS State football bets.
Mississippi State has covered in just two of its last 10 games and in one of its last six NCAAF games at home.
A Massimo Biscardi field goal and Rara Thomas touchdown catch put visiting Mississippi State up by eight points midway through the fourth quarter in the 2022 game.
Jaxson Dart’s touchdown pass with 1:25 left made it a two-point game but the two-point conversion was no good as Mississippi State held on for the 24-22 win as the 2.5-point underdog.
The game fell well under the 63-point total. It was the sixth straight Egg Bowl to go under the total.
Ole Miss vs Mississippi State Betting Preview
Ole Miss leads the series 64-46-5 and the Rebels did win in its last trip to Starkville.
This will be the fourth time in the last six road games that Ole Miss is favored against Mississippi State. The Rebels have won three of the last four games in Starkville.
Mississippi State has failed to cover in all three games this season when listed as the underdog at home. Ole Miss is 2-0 against the college football betting lines as a road favorite during the 2023 season.
Eleven of the 22 games played by Ole Miss and Mississippi State have finished under the total this season. The total has been set at 56.5 for this game. That is the lowest in an Egg Bowl game since 2014.
Temperatures are expected to be in the low 60s at the time of the opening kickoff as weather shouldn’t have an impact in this game.
Ole Miss is eyeing a 10-win season for just the fourth time since 1972. However, Mississippi State figures to pull out all the stops to try to get the sixth win and become bowl-eligible.
Mississippi State has covered in just two of its seven home games this season.
Picking Ole Miss to win does make the most sense. However, the 11.5-point spread is a little concerning based on the recent history between the teams.